UFC 302 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk: 3-1 Pick for Main Card (Saturday, June 1)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC welterweight Kevin Holland
Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk Odds
| Holland Odds | -305 |
| Oleksiejczuk Odds | +230 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-155 / +116) |
| Location | Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey |
| Time | 11 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 302 odds as of Saturday and via BetRivers. Bet on UFC 302 with our BetRivers promo code. | |
Here's everything you need to know about the Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk odds for UFC 302 on Saturday, June 1 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
Saturday's UFC 302 main card features Kevin Holland (ranked No. 15 in the welterweight contender rankings) against unranked Michal Oleksiejczuk at middleweight.
The steam is on Holland in this matchup; he opened at -250 and is now listed at -278 at BetRivers at the time of this writing.
I agree with the steam, and here is how I will be backing the favorite in my Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk preview for UFC 302.
Tale of the Tape
| Holland | Oleksiejczuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-11 | 19-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:14 | 6:11 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 81" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 11/5/1992 | 2/22/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.24 | 5.06 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.19 | 4.26 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.85 | 0.75 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 44% |
| TD Def | 54% | 48% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.0 |
I personally love the move by Holland to return to 185 pounds, even if it is just for this fight. He is so much smoother in the striking department and flows better in the octagon when he isn't making the drastic weight cut to 170 pounds.
The reason he does do that cut to 170 is because Holland can't deal with the wrestling of the bigger guys in the 185-pound divisionn.
The good news for him in this fight is that Oleksiejczuk is not a wrestler.
This fight will likely stay on the feet for the majority of the 15 minutes, which bodes extremely well for Holland. He carries a three-inch height and seven-inch (!) reach advantage, so an obvious game plan from Holland would be to just stay on the outside.
"Would" is the key word in that sentence, because with Holland, you just never know what you are going to get. With that said, even if he goes with a more wild style inside the octagon on Saturday night, I trust Oleksiejczuk's chin to hold up.
Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk Pick
Oleksiejczuk has never been knocked out through 13 bouts in the UFC. In fact, the guy has just one loss by KO/TKO through 27 professional bouts, and that occurred nearly a decade ago.
Even with Holland's power, I don't see that as a super likely route to victory for the betting favorite. That leaves the submission and decision props, which pay out +250 and +310, respectively.
I believe there is more value in that +310 number. Yes, Oleksiejczuk has issues with giving up the neck, but I don't know why Holland would even attempt to bring this fight to the mat with his superior striking style and height/reach advantages.
Sure, Holland could pull off a reversal and submission if Oleksiejczuk brings this fight to the mat at a given point. However, the underdog also prefers to stand and bang and has landed just one takedown over his past five fights.
In a stand-and-bang fight between these two guys, I trust both chins to go the distance. If that is the case, Holland should have the clear advantage with the quicker movement and height/reach advantages.
The Pick: Kevin Holland by Decision (+300 at BetRivers)
How would you rate this article?