UFC 302 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Mickey Gall vs. Bassil Hafez: Take Juicy KO Prop (Saturday, June 1)

Mickey Gall vs. Bassil Hafez Odds

Here's everything you need to know about the Mickey Gall vs. Bassil Hafez odds for UFC 302 on Saturday, June 1 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.

While there are typically no moral victories in MMA, Bassil Hafez may have proved that saying wrong in his UFC debut. He stepped in on a few days' notice to take on Jack Della Maddalena, who's now 7-0 in the UFC and ranked No. 5 among UFC welterweight contenders.

At the time, Maddalena had finished all of his UFC opponents in the first round. Hafez took him to a split decision, dominating him in the first round before (understandably) running out of gas.

Now he gets a much more manageable fight in his sophomore appearance against Mickey Gall. Gall also had a unique start to his UFC tenure. He joined the promotion at just 1-0 as a professional as part of the CM Punk sweepstakes, defeating Mike Jackson and then Punk – two of the modern era's worst fighters – in consecutive fights.

Since then, he's 4-5 in the promotion with just one win against an opponent with a winning UFC record.

Tale of the Tape

Hafez tipped his hand early in his UFC debut, picking up the first of three takedowns less than 10 seconds into the fight. He used his grappling to dominate Maddalena throughout the first round, picking up more than three minutes of control time in the frame.

"Habibi" also impressed with his striking in some ways, trading in the pocket with Maddalena on multiple occasions. While his technique and offense weren't particularly strong, merely surviving those exchanges with JDM was a good sign for his chin and defense.

There are some open questions about Hafez, though. He's a massive welterweight who relies heavily on takedowns, and both of those things tend to be problematic for the gas tank. Was his extreme fatigue in his debut a product of the short-notice fight and weight cut, or simply a byproduct of his style and physique?

It's also very hard to judge the striking game of Hafez. He was already tired before the first extended stretch on the feet with Maddalena, which is one confounding factor. The other is the opponent. Maddalena is one of the division's best strikers, and even top UFC welterweights have looked bad against him on the feet.

We might not get the answer to either of those questions against Mickey Gall.

Gall is also primarily a grappler with five of his six UFC victories coming by way of submission. He's been dropped in three of his last four fights, while his last knockdown was scored way back in 2016. While we don't know a ton about Hafez's striking, he should, at the very least, have a power edge over Gall.

Still, we're likely to see a grappling match at some point in this one. I doubt Hafez will pass up the opportunity to exploit Gall's 36% takedown defense, or exploitable striking defense on the ground.

Ironically, Hafez (allegedly) already has a grappling win over Gall, dating back more than 10 years to a Grapplers Quest event.

Gall vs. Hafez Pick

If my analysis above didn't make it clear, I don't have much faith in Gall's chances here. To his credit, he's a very strong grappler with solid takedowns and even better submissions.

Which is what makes this such a terrible matchup against Hafez. Hafez proved his grappling chops in his UFC debut against Maddalena, and he also has a massive edge in size, strength and athleticism.

Hafez is also much better than his 8-4-1 pro record indicates. Three of his four losses came via split decision, and his draw came against fellow future UFC fighter (and elite grappler) Jeremiah Wells in a regional promotion.

The question then becomes how to avoid the heavy juice on Hafez. He's around even money to win by any finish, but I think we can do better than that.

Given Gall's submission grappling ability and Hafez's comments on the matter, the likelier route here is a (T)KO. While Haffez has just one of those wins on his record, it's the path of least resistance against Gall.

Furthermore, Gall frequently finds himself in bad positions due to failed submission attempts, which could be exploited by a grappler of Hafez's caliber. Gall has also never been submitted, which is another reason to lean towards a finish via strikes.

The most compelling reason, though, is the odds. Hafez by knockout is +350 at Betfred, and you can also find +325 odds at ESPN BET and Hard Rock Sportsbook at the time of this writing. FanDuel also has a playable price (+310).

The Pick: Bassil Hafez via KO/TKO (+350 at Betfred)