Philip Rowe vs. Jake Matthews Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Philip Rowe vs. Jake Matthews odds for UFC 302 on Saturday, June 1 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
Phillip Rowe is a very popular underdog selection this week.
Fans and bettors are picking him to win at a 50% clip.
But should they? Let's jump into my Rowe vs. Matthews betting preview.
Tale of the Tape
| Rowe | Matthews | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1o-4 | 19-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:43 | 11:23 |
| Height | 6'3" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 171 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 80" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/18/1990 | 8/19/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.94 | 3.30 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.32 | 2.56 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.85 | 1.59 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 40% |
| TD Def | 59% | 62% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.6 |
I found Rowe incredibly unimpressive in his split-decision loss to Neil Magny last June; both fighters looked like they were fighting underwater or dragging parachutes behind them.
Rowe has significant physical advantages in this fight (4" taller, 7" reach advantage), but he rarely makes the most of his length on the feet – and seemingly prefers to grapple.
Matthews is four years younger and the more skilled fighter, with better cardio and more experience against a higher level of competition. He's the superior offensive grappler and the faster and better pocket boxer, and he should be able to use his leg kicks to chop at Rowe's lanky frame.
Matthews's primary concern is his chin; he's been knocked out or down in several fights. However, Rowe isn't necessarily a big puncher in the aggregate, though he can catch opponents when he has time to load up and leverage his frame behind a long right hand. Moreover, Rowe has also been wobbled or knocked down in several of his UFC bouts – and Matthews is arguably the most dangerous puncher he's faced.
This Jake Matthews finish was so beautiful 😫 pic.twitter.com/b8nWBdrWfY
— Elon Rakhmonov 🇦🇺 (@ElonRakhmonov) May 29, 2024
Rowe is also far too content to accept bottom position and fight off his back – using his long limbs to hunt for submissions – after permitting takedowns (career 59% takedown defense) or getting hurt.
Matthews has an underrated top game, and each takedown could be a round in his favor.
Rowe vs. Matthews Pick
Matthews is the far likelier minute-winner in this matchup; I'd give both men similar finish equity.
Bet Matthews, who is available at -175 odds (projected -190) at the time of this writing.
You can also consider his decision prop (projected +154, listed +160) or KO/TKO prop (projected +511, listed +550) as a round-robin piece.
The Pick: Jake Matthews (-155 at DraftKings, 0.5u)
