UFC 302 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos: Matchup Problem for Underdog (Saturday, Saturday, June 1)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC welterweight Randy Brown of Jamaica
Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos Odds
| 10 p.m. ET | |
Here's everything you need to know about the Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos odds for UFC 302 on Saturday, June 1 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
One of the more underrated bouts on UFC 302 is the fight that will kick off the main card on ESPN+ PPV.
"Rude Boy" Randy Brown (18-5, 7 KOs, 5 SUB) takes on Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (24-7, 14 KOs, 3 SUB) in a bout between two – for now – unranked welterweights.
Any chance either man has at competing for a title will be dashed with a loss as Brown, 33, and Zaleski, 37, are looking to climb the ladder in a loaded division.
Tale of the Tape
| Brown | Zaleski | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-5 | 24-7-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:10 | 12:32 |
| Height | 6'3" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/8/1990 | 12/11/1986 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.37 | 4.52 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.78 | 0.43 |
| TD Acc | 39% | 13% |
| TD Def | 74% | 68% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.4 |
Brown is riding the best UFC stretch of his career, winning six of his last seven and most recently knocking out Muslim Salikhov this past February with a perfect straight right hand.
The KO landed him a Performance of the Night bonus.
The heavy-handed Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has been in the UFC since 2016 and has been an MMA pro for 10 years, but this is just his third time on the main card of a major PPV event.
For Zaleski, it's his first such achievement, and he arrives into Saturday night having fought to a draw with Rinat Fakhretdinov in November. Prior to that, Zaleski had won two straight to bounce back from a 1-2 skid.
If anyone is still in his prime, it's clearly Brown. For Zaleski, his best career run came in winning seven straight fights between April 2016 and March 2019, including a knockout win over Sean Strickland and a submission victory over Curtis Millender. But Zaleski – who is also a BJJ black belt – hasn't looked like that guy recently.
Brown is generally a matchup problem, and it holds true again. The 6-foot-3 welterweight has a 78-inch reach advantage for the 5-foot-11 Zaleski to try to navigate with his 73-inch reach.
Additionally, Brown has been the far more active fighter. This will be his second bout this year and Zaleski's first. Brown has fought eight times since August 2020 – dos Santos has only three fights in that span, and he's had multiple layoffs of more than a year each since.
Brown vs. Zaleski Pick
I like Brown in this fight.
He has the matchup advantage, he's far more active, and I think he's just better right now.
Brown completely neutralized Salikhov, who scraped by Zaleski in a debatable 2020 split decision. He'll be able to control this fight on the feet if he's able to battle at range and pick off the smaller Zaleski, which is largely where I think this bout may be contested.
I took Brown at -167 on the moneyline at BetRivers. If I wanted to shoot for a big payout with a method-of-victory prop, I'd lean toward a Brown decision (+170 at FanDuel and ESPN Bet), and I ultimately may sprinkle on that, as well.
Enjoy the fight, and don’t go broke!
The Pick: Randy Brown (-167 at BetRivers)
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