Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa odds for UFC 302 on Saturday, June 1.
The co-main event for UFC 302 features a middleweight showdown between Sean Strickland and Paulo Costa.
Strickland, who is the former champion of the division, elected to stay busy coming off his close split decision title defeat to Dricus Du Plessis earlier this year.
Although the American is no stranger to risk, Strickland will certainly be gambling when he steps in the octagon with Costa this Saturday.
Despite losing three of his last four fights, Costa has proven to be a dangerous proposition to take on in victory or defeat.
Here's my Strickland vs. Costa prediction and pick.
Tale of the Tape
| Strickland | Costa | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 28-6 | 14-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:12 | 11:09 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/27/1991 | 4/21/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.91 | 6.20 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 58% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.33 | 6.38 |
| SS Defense | 62% | 47% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.85 | 0.45 |
| TD Acc | 64% | 75% |
| TD Def | 77% | 80% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Although Strickland and Costa are deceptively well-rounded fighters, both parties typically prefer to sort things out on the feet.
Labeled a "jab merchant" by many, Strickland has successfully made hay off of his lead hand in both the middle and welterweight divisions of the UFC.
Staying behind his long reach, Strickland will work behind stinging jabs and the occasional front teep to the body.
Whether Strickland is using the jab to check his opponent or set up power shots, the American fighter has proven to be consistent with his favored weapon.
Strickland is also not beyond changing things up with a rogue takedown along the fence, but I doubt the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt will have a lot of success against an opponent like Costa.
Initially stepping onto the scene as a pressure-grappling dynamo, Costa has since steered into the striking side of the sport.
Doing his best work when coming forward, Costa largely embraces a corralling shot selection that he variates well between, coming to life whenever he can get his opponent between the inner-black octagon lines and the fence.
From timing change-ups on his hooks to crushing kicks to the body, Costa has proven to be much more thoughtful than your stereotypical brawler.
In more recent showings against the likes of Robert Whittaker, "Borrachinha" also demonstrated an upgraded jab and impressive accuracy on his spinning assaults, which will be something worth watching for this Saturday.
Strickland vs. Costa Pick
Despite the oddsmakers opening this fight a little tighter, public money has steadily been trickling in on the American, listing Strickland -265 and Costa +200 as of this writing.
Despite coming into my tape study leaning toward the plus-money value on the Costa side, I can see why Strickland is holding firm as the betting favorite in this spot. Aside from the fact that Strickland is the much more consistent party (from a fighting perspective), Costa's unpredictability in fights arguably comes hand-in-hand with the suspect stamina and pacing he's shown in previous affairs.
Add in the fact that straight punches have been Costa's common culprit from both stances, and I suspect that Strickland will be able to pull away on the scorecards down the stretch.
I don't blame anyone for taking a small stab at Costa"s money line at anything north of this 2-1 price tag, but I'll be playing it safer by shopping the prop markets and totals.
Although I was admittedly able to find an Over 3.5 rounds price for this fight that I liked, you can get a slightly better price for "Fight Starts Round 4" if you have access to sites like FanDuel.
Costa's output may slow as the fight progresses, but he, akin to Strickland, has proven to have deceptive staying power with his chin.
You can look for decision props if you're trying to reach a little further for a plus number, but I believe that this is the safest bet for this fight.
The Pick: Strickland vs. Costa "Fight Starts Round 4" (-132 at FanDuel)
