For many MMA fans, fight night wouldn't be complete without a UFC parlay or two to sweat, and we've got multiple for UFC 302, including a same-game parlay.
The UFC travels to New Jersey on Saturday for an event that features an abundance of make-or-break fights for competitors of all levels.
Following a +413 parlay win of the all-violence variety at UFC 301, I will once again target three fights that shouldn’t reach the judges' scorecards, with a very similar payout to the previous pay-per-view.
UFC 302 takes place at Prudential Center in Newark. Following prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET) and then ESPN2 (8 p.m. ET), the five-fight UFC 302 main card kicks off on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET.
Below, let’s dive into my UFC 302 parlays for the card.
Bet on UFC 302 this weekend with our FanDuel promo code!
UFC 302 Parlay
Parlay Leg 1: Jalton Almeida by Finish (-155)
Almeida has the athleticism, cardio and wrestling advantage in this fight against the unimpressive Alexander Romanov. Even if you are of the opinion Romanov is the better grappler, he may only have 3-5 minutes to get the job done before Almeida takes over. Almeida’s only loss in his last 15 fights has been at the hands of the next heavyweight title challenger in Curtis Blaydes, and I simply do not hold Romanov in nearly that high of regard. Romanov’s takedown defense has truly only been tested once in his UFC career, and in that fight he was taken down four times. I expect a dominant rebound performance from the younger, more explosive Almeida.
Parlay Leg 2: Alex Morono by Finish (+120)
While neither man in this bout possesses great durability, it’s clear to me Niko Price’s ability to withstand strikes is waning at a quicker pace. Price has been finished in each of his last two fights, by Robbie Lawler and Phil Rowe, two men who are not necessarily better finishers than Morono at their respective stages of their careers. Morono is not known for his finishing ability, but that is the reason we are getting a good number in this spot against an opponent, in Price, that has been on the losing end of a KO/TKO loss in 71% of the fights he was defeated.
Parlay Leg 3: Islam Makhachev by Finish (-270)
It’s no secret what the path of least resistance is for the lightweight champion on Saturday night. Standing and trading with Dustin Poirier is a recipe for disaster, and it’s very unlikely Makhachev’s coaches would encourage any type of gameplan that doesn’t feature the champion’s best attributes. Poirier has talked of possible retirement following this fight, and while that doesn’t necessarily translate to a greater chance of him losing, it does likely lead to him going for broke at some point, possibly trying things that can put him in a very bad position. Regardless, Poirier has already shown that against the elite grapplers of opponents past, he can be submitted, which is what I expect to eventually happen in the main event of UFC 302.
All-Violence Parlay:
- Almeida to win by KO/TKO or submission (-155)
- Morono to win by KO/TKO or submission (+120)
- Makhachev to win by KO/TKO or submission (-270)
UFC 302 Parlay: +395 at FanDuel
UFC 302 Same Game Parlay
Same-game parlays can be a great way to correlate a fighter’s win condition, and each time I have recommended such a parlay in this column, that is exactly the type of SGP we have played. For UFC 302 on Saturday, I will be trying to maximize our payout by attacking the five-round co-main event between Sean Strickland and Paulo Costa in a way that is not necessarily in a correlated manner.
Let’s start with a prop for the first round. Strickland has landed 25+ significant strikes against two of the best strikers the middleweight division has to offer in Israel Adesanya and Dricus Du Plessis in the first round of his past two bouts. Strickland has gotten off to fast starts in his recent fights, and I expect that to continue against Costa.
Next, let’s move to total strikes. It's a stat with which Strickland has had the edge over his opponent in 11 of his last 12 UFC fights. In all six contests Strickland has been in that extended past three rounds, he has landed 105 or more significant strikes, which is the max Draftkings allows you to include in the parlay.
Given the overall durability of both men, I am expecting a lengthy fight that sees the championship rounds. While that may seem to favor the proven cardio of Strickland, Costa displayed he can keep his explosiveness deep into the fight, as he did in his last bout against former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker. Costa may have been slightly outclassed against Whittaker, but it was worth noting he threw 48 significant strikes in Round 3, which indicated there was not much of a dropoff in his output.
I also expect Costa to land the bigger shots in this fight. If he can accomplish such a feat, we have already seen Strickland lose decisions in which he did have the striking numbers on his side. This result played out against both Du Plessis and Jarod Cannionier, and it’s undoubtedly possible to occur again Saturday night against the powerful Costa.
Thus, my UFC 302 same-game parlay is:
- Paulo Costa moneyline (3way)
- Strickland 105+ significant strikes
- Strickland 25+ significant strikes – Round 1
