UFC 303 Odds & Predictions for All 13 Fights: Sean Zerillo’s Betting Preview (Saturday, June 29)

UFC 303 Odds & Predictions for All 13 Fights: Sean Zerillo’s Betting Preview (Saturday, June 29) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira of Brazil and Jiri Prochazka of the Czech Republic

Check out all of the UFC 303 odds with my predictions for all 13 fights for Saturday's pay-per-view event, including the Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka main event and title rematch.

Editor's Note:Β Brian Ortega has withdrawn from the UFC 303 co-main event due to illness. He has been replaced at the last minute by Dan Ige, who will face Diego Lopes. Lopes is currently anywhere from a -250 to -270 favorite in the spontaneous matchup.

Below, I break down and predict each bout on the UFC 303 card, which takes place tonight at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Here's how to watch UFC 303: The early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT) on ESPN before the regular prelims kick off at 8 p.m. ET on the same channel. The five-fight main card then starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ pay-per-view (PPV cost: $79.99).

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And UFC 303 is no exception.

So, in addition toΒ moneylinesΒ andΒ over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 303 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

Odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 303 with our DraftKings promo code.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

Click on a fight to skip ahead
1. Ricky Simon vs. Vinicius Oliveira
6 p.m. ET
2. Rei Tsuruya vs. Carlos Hernandez
6:30 p.m. ET
3. Andrei Arlovski vs. Martin Buday
7 p.m. ET
4. Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Gillian Robertson
7:30 p.m. ET
5. Payton Talbott vs. Yanis Ghemmouri
8 p.m. ET
6. Charles Jourdain vs. Jean Silva
8:30 p.m. ET
7. Cub Swanson vs. Roman Kopylov
9 p.m. ET
8. Joe Pyfer vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
9:30 p.m. ET
9. Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page
10 p.m. ET
10. Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson
10:30 p.m. ET
11. Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze
11 p.m. ET
12. Dan Ige vs. Diego Lopes
11:30 p.m. ET
13. Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka
11:59 p.m. ET

UFC 303 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 13 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

UFC 303 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

[Click to return to table of contents]

UFC 303 Odds

Ricky Simon vs. Vinicius Oliveira

Bantamweight BoutOdds
Ricky Simon Odds-245
Vinicius Oliveira Odds+200
Over/under rounds2.5 (-105 / -125)

Crowdsourced Projections: Ricky Simon (69.2%)

On paper, this seems like a get-right spot for Ricky Simon, a former top-15 bantamweight making a rare appearance in a curtain-jerker.

Vinicius Oliveira is a powerful and dynamic striker with a height and reach advantage (3" taller, 1" reach).

VINICIUS OLIVEIRA WITH KNOCKOUT OF THE YEAR 🀯pic.twitter.com/3oMODxBn3U

β€” Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) March 2, 2024

Still, he tends to load up for big explosions, has bad takedown defense, and accepts the bottom position – especially as he tires.

Simon is a bit chinny – and Oliveira can catch him in exchange – but Oliveira has also lost by knockout twice against regional competition. Simon has a severe wrestling and cardio advantage in this matchup and may be a far better submission grappler.

I expect a high-paced affair between two fighters with potentially compromised chins, and I also expect this fight to end inside the distance more frequently than the odds suggest (projected -155, listed -145).

Bet the ITD prop or the Under 2.5 rounds (-120). And target Simon after Round 1 if the price moves in.

Bets

  • Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-145, Flat Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings
  • Ricky Simon Live after Round 1

[Click to return to table of contents]

Rei Tsuruya vs. Carlos Hernandez

Flyweight BoutOdds
Rei Tsuruya Odds-395
Carlos Hernandez Odds+310
Over/under rounds1.5 (-195 / +150)

Crowdsourced Projections: Rei Tsuruya (79.7%)

I'm highly interested in Rei Tsuruya as a prospect. Although his striking is green, he's very young (22 years old), has an excellent grappling base, and has an aggressive demeanor.

For his official UFC debut, company officials are feeding Carlos Hernandez – most recently KO'ed by fellow Japanese prospect Tatsuro Taira – to Tsuruya.

Hernandez is 3-2 in the UFC (albeit with a pair of split decisions), is the better and busier striker in this matchup, and has shown excellent cardio and relentless scrambling. If Hernandez can survive to the second round, he could be live to pull off the upset.

Still, Hernandez tends to give up his back as he stands, and Tsuruya will seize upon that position where, like Taira, he prefers to work and hunt for submissions.

If Tsuruya can't finish the fight, however, it could turn into a damage vs. control measurement on the scorecards, where Hernandez lands the more impactful strikes, and he may have superior cardio down the stretch.

As a result, I'd look to roll a pre-fight violence bet on Tsuruya to win early into a live angle on Hernandez after Round 1.

Target Tsuruya by submission (projected +128, listed +205) or by Round 1 submission (+480) pre-fight and wait for a better price on Hernandez.

Bets

  • Rei Tsuruya wins by Submission (+205, 0.25u) at BetRivers
  • Carlos Hernandez Live after Round 1


[Click to return to table of contents]

Andrei Arlovski vs. Martin Buday

Heavyweight BoutOdds
Andrei Arlovski Odds+225
Martin Buday Odds-278
Over/under rounds2.5 (-166 / +130)

Crowdsourced Projections: Martin Buday (65.4%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Arlovski vs. Buday preview from my colleague Dann Stupp.

With Andrei Arlovsk now 45 years old, I'm primarily concerned about the potential that his level falls off severely; still, we last saw the former heavyweight champion compete in January, when he took a round against 32-year-old Waldo Cortes-Acosta, whom I'd rate as a better striker and a far better athlete than Martin Buday.

At age 32, Buday is significantly younger than Arlovski and likelier to improve at this career stage. Still, he's a very slow and immobile athlete who can thrive when opponents stand in front of him but struggles against more mobile fighters, a category Arlovski fits into.

Buday is the bigger man (20 pounds heavier on the scales on Friday) and has the grappling advantage in this fight; he may consolidate a takedown or hold Arlovski up against the fence for extended stretches.

Still, he's not a particularly good wrestler, and I expect Arlovski to find ways to separate from clinch positions, go back to range, and continue peppering Buday with ones and twos.

Neither fighter has excellent cardio, and we could see a sloppy fight down the stretch since this bout is heavily favored to reach the halfway mark (Over 1.5 listed -335) and likely to see the scorecards (listed -143).

I project value on the fight to reach a decision (projected -187) but feel that value is correlated to Arlovski's moneyline (projected +189, listed +220) and decision prop (projected +285, listed +330).

I also like Arlovski on the point spread (+3.5) at -120 or better; I expect him to take one round off of Buday and don't view Buday as a more significant finishing threat than Arlovski's other recent opponents.

I expect this fight to look similar to all of the other Arlovski decisions we've seen in recent years; hopefully, the judges will be deferential in a close fight to what is typically a pro-Arlovski crowd.

Bets

  • Andrei Arlovski (+220, 0.25u) at Caesars Sportsbook
  • Andrei Arlovski +3.5 Point Spread (-105, 0.25u) at DraftKings

[Click to return to table of contents]

Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Gillian Robertson

Women's Strawweight BoutOdds
Michelle Waterson-Gomez Odds+145
Gillian Robertson Odds-175
Over/under rounds2.5 (-215 / +165)

Crowdsourced Projections: Gillian Robertson (60.3%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Robertson vs. Waterson-Gomez preview from my colleague Bryan Fonseca.

Michelle Waterson-Gomez has lost four straight and six of her past seven fights and will likely be cut with another loss at age 38.

However, if she can deny takedowns (career 70% takedown defense) against 29-year-old Gillian Robertson, she could win against a relatively one-dimensional grappler. Robertson's striking has improved – particularly her kicking game – but any striking rounds will likely be competitive, if not favor Waterson-Gomez outright.

Still, Robertson is the bigger and stronger fighter – Waterson-Gomez is likely a natural atomweight while Robertson used to compete at 125 – and I expect her to find her way to dominant positions and either find a submission or secure a control-based decision.

I do project slight value on Waterson-Gomes by decision (projected +214, listed +230), and her moneyline is beginning to come into range (projected +152, listed +165); still, I'd need a better price to back a 38-year-old on a losing skid – against a fighter in her prime – while showing declining athleticism in a division where speed is more important than anything.

I'd pass for now, but I may change my mind if the price continues to climb.

Bets

  • Pass

[Click to return to table of contents]

Payton Talbott vs. Yanis Ghemmouri

Bantamweight BoutOdds
Payton Talbott Odds-1600
Yanis Ghemmouri Odds+900
Over/under rounds1.5 (-188 / +145)

Crowdsourced Projections: Payton Talbott (92.9%)

Peyton Talbott will go off as one of the most significant moneyline favorites in UFC history on Saturday, with his best available odds at -1600 (94.1% implied) as of Friday evening.

Talbott has only had eight professional fights, but his most recent performance against Cameron Saaiman – who is considered another high-level prospect – was one of the more impressive showings I can remember. Talbott's anticipation and instincts are remarkable.

Talbott is more of an attritional finisher than a one-punch KO artist; he's never finished an opponent in Round 1, but he mostly overwhelms his opposition with volume and slow-cooks them. However, books are wise to his style, de-juicing his odds to win in Round 2 (+320) or Round 3 (+410).

Ghemmouri might also actively refuse to participate in the fight, making it difficult for Talbott to finish in a regular-sized octagon, as opposed to the smaller UFC Apex cage in which Talbott scored his most recent wins.

I may bet on Talbott inside the distance (projected -230, listed -200). Still, if I'm taking a stab at this fight, I likely prefer Talbott by Submission (projected +438, listed +600) against a kickboxing and muay Thai specialist.

Bets

  • Peyton Talbott wins Inside the Distance (-200, 0.1u) at DraftKings
  • Peyton Talbott wins by Submission (+600, 0.1u) at DraftKings

[Click to return to table of contents]

Charles Jourdain vs. Jean Silva

147.5-Pound Catchweight BoutOdds
Charles Jourdain Odds-135
Jean Silva Odds+114
Over/under rounds2.5 (-180 / +140)

Crowdsourced Projections: Jean Silva (50.2%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Jourdain vs. Silva preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Silva, a member of the productive Fighting Nerds team from Brazil, opened as a +164 underdog for this fight but may close as a favorite by the opening bell. Despite his weight miss on Friday, I project Silva as a slight favorite and would bet +105 or better pre-fight.

The Fighting Nerds tend to stick to a game plan and exploit their opponent's weaknesses; conversely, Jourdain never seems to have a game plan – more so going with the flow of his fight – and his level varies from one outing to the next.

Typically, opponents beat Jourdain by outgrappling him, but he may have the grappling advantage in this fight against Silva, a pressure-based striker. Jourdain must stick on the outside and use his movement to frustrate his opponent. Still, Jourdain was overly patient in his most recent loss (via split decision) against Sean Woodson and could come out more aggressively in this matchup, which could be to his detriment.

I'd bet Silva if his price comes back into range (target +105), and I lean toward the Over or Goes to Decision prop. Otherwise, I don't project value on any sides, totals, or props for this matchup.

I considered the Over – as both fighters are durable – but I don't know how Silva's gas tank will handle the weight miss, and I'd rather wait for plus money on his moneyline – rather than laying -135 for the fight to reach a decision – if I'm relying on Silva's round three cardio anyway.

Bets

  • Wait for +105 on Jean Silva


[Click to return to table of contents]

Cub Swanson vs. Andre Fili

Featherweight BoutOdds
Cub Swanson Odds+185
Andre Fili Odds-225
Over/under rounds2.5 (-110 / -120)

Crowdsourced Projections: Andre Fili (69.5%)

UFC featherweight bouts reach a decision at an average of 54.1%, and I've always viewed Cub Swanson (who finished seven of 14 UFC wins) and Andre Fili (who finished four of 11 UFC wins) as point fighters rather than knockout artists or threatening submission grapplers.

Swanson is 40 and coming off an upset win over 32-year-old Hakeem Dawodu. He's been durable throughout his career and never KO'ed by punches (flying knee, body kick and leg kick), but he has shown a grappling deficiency against top-tier featherweights. However, Fili isn't much of a submission threat.

Fili is younger (34) but has the more concerning chin – and is coming off of a nasty knockout loss against Dan Ige in February.

Fili should wrestle (averaging four takedown attempts per 15 minutes throughout his UFC career) and look to consolidate top position and neutralize Swanson on the mat. However, he tends to brawl.

As a result, this could turn into a coin-flip striking match on the feet, where Fili is quicker and owns a height and reach advantage (3" taller, 4" reach edge), but Swanson may have better hardware.

While I project value on the prop, I'd only place a small bet on the goes-to decision prop at plus money. I projected that price to align with the featherweight average of 54%, or -118 implied, but I could see this pair engaging in a high-variance striking fight.

I'd consider adding Swanson by decision (projected +404, listed +490) to my round-robin.

Bets

  • Fight Goes to Decision (+120, 0.25u) at FanDuel

[Click to return to table of contents]

Joe Pyfer vs. Marc-Andre Barriault

Middleweight BoutOdds
Joe Pyfer Odds-310
Marc-Andre Barriault Odds+250
Over/under rounds2.5 (+110 / -140)

Crowdsourced Projections: Joe Pyfer (75.8%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Pyfer vs. Barriault preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

I bet against Joe Pyfer in his last fight, a main event debut against Jack Hermasson. It was a significant step up in competition – and first foray into a five-round fight – after previously finishing the majority of his competition inside of eight minutes.

Pyfer's cardio looked better than expected in that matchup – and he found a second wind in the championship rounds – but mostly struggled with Hermansson's leg kicks and veteran savvy. Pyfer will get a lot of class relief and will dial back to a three-round fight against Marc-Andre Barriault, a durable Canadian with excellent output and cardio.

Pyfer should be the much quicker and more explosive athlete early in the fight. Barriault is slow and very hittable (52% striking defense), but as you tire and stand in front of him, he can rack up the volume (he attempts nearly 12.5 strikes per minute).

I expect Pyfer to win the first round – when fresh – at an extremely high percentage. He's the cleaner, faster striker and more mobile and powerful athlete, and he can likely wrestle and get on top of Barriault if he chooses.

I'd expect him to finish early at a decent clip, too; consider betting Pyfer to win in Round 1 (+300) or inside the distance (projected -131, listed +110). I wouldn't be surprised by a submission (projected +428, listed +550); Pyfer trains with Marquez MMA in Philadelphia with partners like Sean Brady and has actively pursued takedowns and submissions against other strikers with grappling deficiencies.

Short Joe Pyfer breakdown because I just realized he's fighting this weekend pic.twitter.com/SaL7yoRPfu

β€” Miguel Class (@MigClass) June 27, 2024

If you like Barriault, I'd take him by decision (projected +590) or wait until live after the first round. You'll almost certainly get a better live number and can avoid Pyfer at his most dangerous.

Still, Pyfer's five-round performance alleviated most of my concerns about his abilities to sustain his level in a three-round fight. Barriault should win the third round at a far higher clip than he does the first round, but I'm not confident that Pyfer will fade enough to open the door in Round 2 and permit the comeback.

Bets

  • Joe Pyfer wins Inside the Distance (+110, 0.25u) at FanDuel
  • Joe Pyfer wins by Submission (+550, 0.1u) at DraftKings

[Click to return to table of contents]

Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page

Welterweight BoutOdds
Ian Machado Garry Odds-166
Michael Page Odds+140
Over/under rounds2.5 (-220 / +170)

Crowdsourced Projections: Ian Machado Garry (66.7%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Garry vs. Page preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

Ian Machado Garry isn't well-liked by the UFC fan base – both for his unexciting fighting style and cringy personality – and he's nearly lost in four of his seven UFC bouts while running his career record to 14-0. As a result, some people want to bet against Garry because they want to see him KO'ed – while others think he's not an exceptionally high-level fighter.

I'm no Garry fan, but I view him as a high-level welterweight prospect. Michael "Venom" Page represents a potential step down in competition relative to his previous opponents.

Garry is the younger and much quicker athlete; when there's at least a decade between UFC opponents, the younger fighter wins about 13% more frequently than expected – 71% of the time at average odds of -136 (57.8% implied). There's likely a difference in effect when the fighters are 18 and 28; the 18-year-old is further away from his physical prime in that scenario. However, the differential between Garry and Page (26 vs. 37) puts "MVP" on the wrong side of the age curve.

While Page has a five-inch reach advantage, Garry has a massive advantage in leg length – and will use calf kicks and teep kicks to frustrate his opponent from range.

Page relies on his unique footwork, movement and unorthodox attack angles to frustrate opponents – like an English version of Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson. However, while Page can crack, he's a low-volume fighter who looks for big moments rather than reliably banking minutes.

Garry is the more proactive striker but also possesses a severe grappling advantage in this fight. He came from a judo base and spent a lot of time out-grappling opponents during his welterweight title run in Cage Warriors, and I'm sure he continues to drill grappling positions while training full-time at Chute Boxe in Brazil. And if Kevin Holland had grappled more proactively, he may have won a close and competitive decision in his fight against MVP.

Garry is the faster athlete and has the tools (kicks and grappling) to frustrate Page from a distance and pull ahead on the scorecards. Honestly, I thought his last matchup against Geoff Neal – who hits harder than Page and can counter-grapple – was a more difficult test. He's shown that he can strike and grapple with the best fighters in the division, and I think Page is drawing dead to a knockout in this fight.

That's certainly in the realm of possibility. Page swings hard, and Garry has shown his chin to be a potential detriment to securing UFC gold or holding onto it for very long. Still, I expect the Irishman to fight for a title shortly, and we should see another clean performance on Saturday, where he mixes his well-rounded skillset.

Bet Garry on the moneyline to -180 (projected -200) and consider adding his decision prop (projected +130, listed +150) or submission prop (projected +900, listed +1000) on round-robin tickets.

Bets

  • Ian Machado Garry (-145, 0.5u at BetMGM)

[Click to return to table of contents]

Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson

Women's Bantamweight BoutOdds
Mayra Bueno Silva Odds-112
Macy Chiasson Odds-108
Over/under rounds2.5 (-166 / +130)

Crowdsourced Projections: Mayra Bueno Silva (50%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Bueno-Silva vs. Chiasson preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.

Ultimately, I don't project value on any side, total or prop in this fight – and it's a pass for me from a betting perspective.

Macy Chiasson is the taller and longer athlete (5" taller, 6" reach advantage) and the more proactive fighter in the matchup – both in terms of strike output and offensive wrestling.

Bueno Silva is much more measured, and she's a better finisher than she is a minute winner. The Brazilian is looking to bounce back from a five-round title fight loss to Raquel Pennington in which she had moments, including a couple of deep submission attempts, but lost most of her minutes in the cage.

In a vacuum, I'd prefer Chiasson on the moneyline, and I would target violence props for Bueno Silva. Still, I'm uninterested at current prices. For example, I projected Bueno Silva inside the distance at +263 (listed as +240) and her submission prop at +345 (listed as +310); early-week prices on the sub prop (opened +410) were the move.

Bets

  • Pass

[Click to return to table of contents]

Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze

Light Heavyweight BoutOdds
Anthony Smith Odds+120
Roman Dolidze Odds-142
Over/under rounds2.5 (-115 / -115)

Crowdsourced Projections: Anthony Smith (58.9%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Dolidze vs. Smith previewΒ from my colleague Billy Ward.

Shockingly, these two fighters are the same age, but Anthony Smith has significantly more fight mileage on him (57 vs. 15 pro fights).

In a booking reflective of the UFC's chaotic summer schedule, Smith initially stepped in on short notice against Carlos Ulberg (instead of Jamahal Hill – who was initially supposed to face Khalil Rountree Jr.), but Smith will now face Roman Dolidze – a middleweight – who is replacing Ulberg on short notice.

Smith, a former middleweight himself, won't necessarily have a size or strength advantage; Dolidze previously fought at both light heavyweight and heavyweight regionally and is considered an extremely powerful athlete. The Georgian should also be the quicker and more explosive fighter.

His aggression could cause problems for Smith, who doesn't seem as mobile as he used to. And I think there's a high probability that Dolidze gets Smith out of there early. I'm interested in Dolidze winning in Round 1 (+470), but I will bet all three rounds with his inside-the-distance prop (projected +143, listed +180).

If this fight extends, Smith may have superior cardio and output down the stretch, and he could be worth a live bet if he's around after five minutes.

That said, Dolidze could offer better cardio than he typically shows without undertaking a weight cut.

I could also see Roman landing takedowns, consolidating top position, and turning this into a snoozer. Smith (49% takedown defense) is an excellent offensive grappler but is often far too content to play off his back. Dolidze may be the superior wrestler in the fight and can win with control time, even if he tires.

Bets

  • Roman Dolidze Wins Inside the Distance (+180, 0.25u) at DraftKings
  • Anthony Smith Live after Round 1

[Click to return to table of contents]

Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes

Lightweight BoutOdds
Brian Ortega Odds+130
Diego Lopes Odds-155
Over/under rounds2.5 (-105 / -125)

Editor's Note:Β Brian Ortega has withdrawn from the UFC 303 co-main event due to illness. He has been replaced at the last minute by Dan Ige, who will face Diego Lopes. Lopes is currently anywhere from a -250 to -270 favorite in the spontaneous matchup.

In the new co-main event after Brian Ortega's withdrawal, I'll be on Dan Ige at +250 over Diego Lopes. I think this fight would be lined closer to a pick 'em if Ige was booked for this fight initially instead of Ortega.

I'll also play the Under 2.5 rounds at -130. I don't mind the Under 1.5 at plus money, but the fight ending inside the distance is -200 to -210, so Under 2.5 should be closer to -150 or -175.

Bets

  • Diego Lopes (+250, 0.25u) at Caesars
  • Under 2.5 Rounds (-130, 0.33u) at DraftKings

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Ortega vs. Lopes preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

This fight was a short-notice booking – meant to spice up the UFC 303 offering after the Conor McGregor-Michael Chandler cancellation – and was moved to lightweight early on Friday morning after Brian Ortega struggled to make the featherweight limit.

Ortega has never missed weight in his UFC career but was planning to move to lightweight later in 2024 and struggled to cut weight after beginning the process of bulking up for a new division.

Diego Lopes is the bigger man (3" taller, 3" reach advantage) and the more dynamic athlete in this matchup. Lopes should have significant advantages in speed and explosiveness, especially early, and he's the superior boxer. As a result, I expect Lopes to win the first round at a reasonably high clip; he should hurt Ortega on the feet – likely with uppercuts – and have an opportunity to close the show early.

Ortega has absorbed a lot of damage throughout his UFC career, but he isn't reacting as well to clean strikes as he used to – and his body is also seemingly failing him. Ortega rolled his ankle walking into the octagon for his last fight against Yair Rodriguez and was nearly finished in Round 1.

Ortega has been a terrible minute-winner throughout his UFC career and is typically trailing on the scorecards when he finishes opponents. Still, Ortega has a ton of heart, and if he can weather the early storm against Lopes – or any opponent – he's always live for a come-from-behind victory.

The clinch battle in this fight will be crucial for both combatants. Ortega doesn't rely on traditional wrestling to generate takedowns but prefers to clinch opponents first or push them up against the fence. However, Lopes excels at denying those positions from opponents – and setting up strikes of his own from in close – and I expect him to be a handful for Ortega, especially in the first round.

If Ortega does manage to get a takedown, however, it could be a round in his favor. Ortega has excellent top pressure, and Lopes is happy to accept the bottom position and hunt for submissions off his back.

As a result, I'm not overly interested in a moneyline side; Lopes should land more damage, but Ortega may only need two takedowns – one in two separate rounds – to stay on top and win this fight.

Selfishly, I hope to see these two grapple. The scrambles could be incredibly high-level and entertaining.

Pre-fight, I'd want to bet on Lopes' violence props such as Lopes by Round 1 KO/TKO or the Unders. To that end, I likely prefer the Under 1.5 at plus money to a juiced Under 2.5; especially with this fight moving to 155 pounds, there's less of a path for a cardio-based finish later in the fight.

And if Ortega does withstand that early damage from Lopes, he'll likely find a way to hang around for 15 minutes. Still, I'd expect to see him on skates early and would wait to target Ortega live (if at all).

Bets

  • Diego Lopes by Round 1 KO/TKO (+650 0.1u) at BetRivers
  • Under 1.5 Rounds (+165, 0.25u) at DraftKings
  • Brian Ortega Live after Round 1

[Click to return to table of contents]

Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka

Light Heavyweight BoutOdds
Alex Pereira Odds-142
Jiri Prochazka Odds+120
Over/under rounds1.5 (-175 / +135)

Crowdsourced Projections: Alex Pereira (50.9%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out my full preview of Pereira vs. Prochazka, UFC 303's headline bout.

In short, I projected Alex Pereira as roughly a 55% favorite in the first matchup and bet him to win by KO/TKO at +125 (projected +115).

However, Prochazka was coming off a bad shoulder injury and a long layoff before that fight; his updated projection for the rematch (not something I adjust manually but compiled from independent data sources) is closer to 49% (+104 implied odds).

This matchup is, at worst, a violent coinflip on the feet for Prochazka – and he's happy to play that game – but I do view him as the superior minute winner in the chance (22.2% implied per the betting market) that this fight sees the scorecards. Jiri is the superior grappler with a better gas tank and is likely to win one round with either advantage while landing more volume in striking exchanges (albeit at a power discrepancy).

Considering the price adjustment from the first fight (Jiri closed +105 to -105), I have toΒ back the underdog in the rematch (at +115 or better).

Bets

  • Jiri Prochazka (+130, 0.5u) at Caesars

[Click to return to table of contents]

Zerillo's UFC 303 Bets

For additional bet notifications, follow me in theΒ Action Network App.

Moneyline Bets

  • Andrei Arlovski (+220, 0.25u) at Caesars
  • Ian Garry (-145, 0.5u) at BetMGM
  • Dan Ige (+250, 0.25u) at Caesars
  • Jiri Prochazka (+130, 0.5u) at Caesars

Prop Bets and Totals

  • Simon/Oliveira, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-145, Flat Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings
  • Rei Tsuruya wins by Submission (+200, 0.25u) at FanDuel
  • Peyton Talbott wins Inside the Distance (-200, 0.1u) at DraftKings
  • Peyton Talbott wins by Submission (+600, 0.1u) at DraftKings
  • Andrei Arlovski +3.5 Point Spread (-105, 0.25u) at DraftKings
  • Fili/Swanson,Β Fight Goes to Decision (+120, 0.25u) at FanDuel
  • Joe Pyfer wins Inside the Distance (+110, 0.25u) at FanDuel
  • Joe Pyfer wins by Submission (+550, 0.1u) at DraftKings
  • Roman Dolidze Wins Inside the Distance (+180, 0.25u) at DraftKings
  • Diego Lopez / Dan Ige, Under 2.5 Rounds (-130, 0.25u) at DraftKings

Parlays

  • TBD

Live Bets

  • Ricky Simon Live after Round 1
  • Carlos Hernandez Live after Round 1
  • Anthony Smith Live after Round 1
  • Brian Ortega Live after Round 1

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.