Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka Odds
| 11:59 p.m. ET | |
Here's the latest on the Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka odds for UFC 303 on Saturday, June 29.
On Saturday the UFC will return to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for a light heavyweight title bout and a rematch between current champion Alex Pereira and former titleholder Jiri Prochazka.
The pair initially squared off for undisputed gold at Madison Square Garden at UFC 295 this past November; Prochazka won the first round on all three scorecards before losing via TKO in the second round.
Pereira has since defended the belt – defeating Jamahal Hill in the first round on short notice at UFC 300 – and will make another short-notice title defense on Saturday in place of the initially scheduled main event of Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler.
Prochazka vacated the light heavyweight title in November 2022 – five months after he won it against Pereira's teammate, Glover Teixeira – due to a gruesome shoulder injury that Dana White deemed "one of the worst he'd ever seen."
Prochazka's initial matchup with Pereira had the cloud of that injury lurking over it, but he's shown it hasn't been an issue in his two fights since.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 303 main event and utilize those factors to bet on Pereira vs. Prochazka, who should make their cage walks at approximately 11:55 p.m. ET (8:55 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ PPV.
Here's my Pereira vs. Prochazka prediction and pick.
Tale of the Tape
| Pereira | Prochazka | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-2 | 30-4-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:12 | 11:27 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 204.5 lbs. | 204.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 79" | 80" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/7/1987 | 10/14/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.10 | 5.75 |
| SS Accuracy | 62% | 56% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.65 | 5.43 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 41% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.18 | 0.79 |
| TD Acc | 100% | 60% |
| TD Def | 70% | 68% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.3 |
I previewed this matchup before UFC 295 and noted some things before the first fight that remain true for the rematch.
Jiri Prochazka retains all of the offensive grappling upside in this fight and should have the cardio advantage too. He proved that he could take down Pereira and control him – winning the first round on all three scorecards – and Jiri looked like he was handling the pace better, physically, as the fight progressed into Round 2.
Both fighters have finished a title bout in the fifth round. Still, Prochazka should handle a grappling-heavy pace – as he proved against Teixeira – while Pereira could wilt if forced to wrestle in multiple rounds.
As a result, Prochazka has more decision equity; in a 25-minute fight, he's likely to win one round with grappling and one on cardio and will otherwise engage in a 50/50 striking contest.
Typically, Pereira prefers to walk down his opponents. And he's had success pressuring the likes of Sean Strickland, Israel Adesanya and Jamahal Hill. However, Prochazka's pressure forces Pereira to be on the back foot – and search for a fight-ending check left hook.
Pereira is the more technical striker with more power, but Prochazka is quicker, applies pressure, fights in a highly unorthodox manner, and throws more output. His aggressive style makes Pereira uncomfortable, especially defensively; he's not used to getting bullied by opponents.
If Jiri stands and trades with Pereira, he'll get blasted with calf kicks – as he was in the first fight and his subsequent matchup with Aleksandar Rakic. Prochazka has a wide karate stance, leaving his lead leg exposed. The damage he sustained early against his past two opponents forced Prochazka to fight even more aggressively, leading to high-variance, fight-ending sequences.
Prochazka should grapple from the outset to tire out Pereira and avoid sustaining that early damage to his legs again. Jiri is also a bit of a glass cannon, wobbling in each of his UFC bouts. He seemingly went unconscious against Dominick Reyes (before recovering to win the fight). He looked out on his feet against Teixeira, who shot a takedown and allowed Prochazka to recover.
However, Pereira isn't the most durable fighter either; he's been wobbled or knocked out by Adesanya – a better kicker than a boxer – on multiple occasions across different promotions. Prochazka carries more power, relative to his weight class, in a heavier division. Moreover, I have zero concerns about Jiri's shoulder, as I did going into UFC 295.
As a result, this fight is, at worst, a violent coinflip for Prochazka – and he's happy to play that game – but I do view him as the superior minute winner in the chance (22.2% implied per the betting market) that this fight sees the scorecards.
Pereira vs. Prochazka Pick
I projected Alex Pereira as roughly a 55% favorite in the first matchup and bet him to win by KO/TKO at +125 (projected +115).
However, Prochazka was coming off a bad shoulder injury and a long layoff before that fight; his updated projection for the rematch (not something I adjust manually but compiled from independent data sources) is closer to 49% (+104 implied odds).
Considering the price adjustment from the first fight (Jiri closed +105 to -105), I have to back the underdog in the rematch (at +115 or better).
I expect the rematch to end inside the distance nearly 88% of the time (-703 implied odds) – about as often as I did the first fight (-718 implied projection). And I still view that prop (listed -550) as a parlay piece.
I also show value on Prochazka via KO/TKO (projected +191, listed +200) or inside the distance (projected +139, listed +150).
Still, in a vacuum, I'd prefer Prochazka from a moneyline perspective – since he has more ways of winning the fight – or Pereira in the prop market via KO/TKO.
Hopefully, we see a trilogy.
The Pick: Jiri Prochazka (+130 at Caesars)
