Andrei Arlovski vs. Martin Buday Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Andrei Arlovski vs. Martin Buday odds for UFC 303 on Saturday, June 29.
UFC 303's lone heavyweight bout is tucked away on the early preliminary card, and it will likely be witnessed in person by the approximately 214 fans who bother showing up early for these big fight cards. Still, with an ESPN broadcast, we've got action to follow as bettors.
It's one of the oldest types of matchups in combat sports: the grizzled vet vs. the up-and-comer.
Andrei Arlovski made his UFC debut at UFC 28 in 2000. His opponent on Saturday, Martin Buday, had turned 9 years old a week prior to that event.
So, you can probably deduct who's the vet and who's the up-and-comer in this UFC 303 fight.
Let's dig in deeper with my Arlovski vs. Buday pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Arlovski | Buday | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 34-23 | 13-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:16 | 9:27 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 245 lbs. | 264.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 77" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/4/1979 | 11/11/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.8 | 5.2 |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.2 | 5.7 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| TD Acc | 36% | 25% |
| TD Def | 76% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.3 |
By now, my penchant for fellow 40-somethings is probably well-known. Occasionally it clouds my breakdowns and leads me to betting on a weathered vet in whom I simply put too much faith. ("Sure, I get a rib spasm when I sneeze, but surely those guys still got it!" I'm an idiot.)
This is not one of those times.
Arlovski has been an MMA fighter longer than even I've watched the sport. He's a former UFC champion, second all-time in UFC appearances (41 entering UFC 303), tied for second all-time in UFC wins (23), and the all-time leader in UFC heavyweight appearances and cage time (6:34:58).
We've seen 45-year-old Arlovski resurrect his career and rebound from health scares on multiple occasions. We've seen various hairstyles, various body-hair styles, and a nose smooshed into all types of shapes during the past few decades.
Before his recent three-fight skid, Arlovski was even was knocking on the door of title contention with a four-fight winning streak against middling competition. But Arlovski's recent skid has really underscored that "Pitbull's" usually trusty durability and speed have greatly diminished.
Of course, folks may have the same concerns about Buday, given his recent lopsided loss to Shamil Gaziev. But two things: 1) Gaziev is the real deal, and 2) Buday survived a first round that would've ended nearly every other behemoth on the planet.
Buday is by no means a perfect fighter, but by heavyweight standards, he's a rpetty legit prospect (and his age – 32 – sadly skews on the younger side of heavyweight contenders). He's an active striker, a pretty accurate striker, a good defender, and he's got some speed and pop.
That should be enough to get by Arlovski, and if it weren't for Buday's recent loss to Gaziev, I think his moneyline odds would be even shorter.
Arlovski vs. Buday Pick
Although I believe a straight-up bet on Buday has value (he's a market-best -250 at bet365 as of this writing), I think we've got a slick way to actually get even-money odds.
By heading over to bet365, we can choose the "Same Game Parlay" menu for Arlovski vs. Buday. By taking Buday on the three-way moneyline and adding the Over with the alternative total of 1.5, we now have +100 odds for the two-legger SGP.
I think Buday has the physical advantages to win rounds fairly convincingly, and I think Arlovski has the durability to survive at least the first 7.5 minutes of the fight.
Put them together, and we're getting +100 odds on a bet that feels like it should be closer to the -130 to -150 range.
The Pick: Same Game Parlay – Buday & Over 1.5 Rounds (+100 at bet365)
