UFC 303 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze: Wrong Fighter Favored (Saturday, June 29)

Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze Odds

Here's everything you need to know about the Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze odds for UFC 303 on Saturday, June 29 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.

This light heavyweight fight is the perfect example of the topsy-turvy summer the UFC is having. While the loss of Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler in the main event is getting all of the attention, the story of this UFC 303 fight between Anthony Smith and Roman Dolidze is even weirder.

To call it the same fight is a stretch at this point, but the matchup was borne of the ashes of Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree. Rountree accidentally ingested a banned substance – and to his credit self-reported – causing his withdrawal. He was replaced by Carlos Ulberg, but then Hill had a knee injury flair-up.

That's when the always-game Anthony Smith volunteered to replace his friend against Carlos Ulberg – who naturally was then injured.

Leaving us with Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze (the UFC's 10th-ranked middleweight) in a light heavyweight bout that's part of the pay-per-view main card.

Now that we've got the backstory out of the way, let's dive into the matchup we seem to have settled on and mine it for some betting value.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Smith unsuccessfully challenged for the UFC light heavyweight title in 2019, and he's been trying to work his way back to the top ever since. At 35 years old and 22 fights into his UFC career, it's probably now or never for the fighter and studio analyst.

Smith's coming in off an upset win over upstart Vitor Petrino in May, when he turned away the young prospect with a first-round guillotine. On the whole, he's had mostly mixed results since his failed title bid, with a 6-5 record since then.

To his credit, Smith's losses have been to elite competition, and he's never looked outmatched in any of them. He's well equipped to force opponents to fight away from their strengths, with enough submission threats to make grappling him uncomfortable and enough power to hold his own on the feet.

He's seemed to struggle with durability since his loss to Jon Jones, though. That's cost him in knockout losses to Rountree, Magomed Ankalaev and former champion Glover Teixeira, and he's had his legs badly hurt by kicks in other fights.

That's an attribute that's hard to get back once it's gone, especially for a fighter who turns 36 next month. Still, his skill set has only improved if anything, making him a dangerous opponent for those who take him lightly – as Petrino found out last month.

Despite being 11 days older than Smith, Roman Dolidze still feels like he's at the early end of his UFC run. He made his pro debut in 2016 – three years after Smith joined the UFC – with nine fights for the promotion.

That's not because of a late start to combat sports. Rather, it was a previous career in submission grappling. He won the ADCC Asia and Oceania tournament in 2016, and he competed in the 2017 championship tournament.

"The Caucasian" has more wins by knockout (seven) than submission (three). That's because he uses his grappling skills to set up his striking. Knowing that his opponents won't want to take him down – or are in for a rough time if they do – he swings heavily on the feet, where he has solid power.

He doesn't land a lot of volume and has a negative striking differential, but he throws everything with vicious intent. It's worth noting that his striking differential is even worse if you remove ground strikes from the equation, thanks to his positive mark in that department.

That will likely be his game plan against Smith, given the latter's questionable durability and the difficulty in taking down the much larger man.

Smith vs. Dolidze Pick

Which isn't to say that plan will work. While Smith has struggled with the power of some of his past opponents, they've all been top-level 205-pounders. Dolidze has solid power for a middleweight, but I don't think it plays up to the heavier weight class.

The only fighter to stop Smith on the feet is Rountree, one of the most powerful 205ers on the roster and a far better technical striker than Dolidze. Smith also took that one on even shorter notice than this, and he admitted to not being in training until he got the call.

Furthermore, while Smith's grappling might not be quite Dolidze's level on a "pound-for-pound" basis, he's no slouch himself. It wouldn't shock me if he mixed in a takedown or two if Dolidze gets wild on the feet, where his extra size should stifle the Georgian's bottom game.

Smith should be able to pick apart Dolidze from range, so long as he can avoid the power shot. While Smith also doesn't have a full camp here, he at least had a few weeks to prepare for a better striker in Ulberg before the switch was made.

Getting plus money on Smith is the cherry on top; I'd make him the favorite in this matchup.

The Pick: Anthony Smith (+122 at Caesars)