Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes Odds
Editor's Note: Brian Ortega has withdrawn from the UFC 303 co-main event due to illness. He has been replaced at the last minute by Dan Ige, who will face Diego Lopes. Lopes is currently anywhere from a -250 to -270 favorite in the spontaneous matchup.
This weekend's UFC 303 co-main event features an impromptu matchup at 155 pounds between Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes.
Despite both men traditionally fighting in the 145-pound featherweight division, the short-notice nature of this contest forced strange concessions from each party.
According to Ortega, the former featherweight title challenger will be moving to lightweight for the foreseeable future given the crowded ranks at 145 pounds.
Lopes, on the other hand, will be returning to his natural weight class after this Saturday's festivities, win or lose.
Here's my Ortega vs. Lopes pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Ortega | Lopes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-3 | 24-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:47 | 5:58 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 72" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/21/1991 | 12/30/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.07 | 3.22 |
| SS Accuracy | 38% | 58% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 6.54 | 4.73 |
| SS Defense | 49% | 37% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.17 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 27% | 0% |
| TD Def | 57% | 42% |
| Submission Avg | 1.2 | 5.0 |
Although Ortega and Lopes come from tremendous submission grappling bases, both men have steadily improved their striking since stepping onto the UFC scene.
A longtime member of the Gracie Torrence Academy, Ortega has taken the same smooth swagger he has as a grappler and applied it to his striking.
Effortlessly switching stances, Ortega will flick out jabs in hopes of sparking opportunities for him to land power shots to the body or head.
In recent years, we've seen Ortega apply a savvy counter-striking game from southpaw – which could serve him well considering Lopes' propensity to punish the legs of orthodox opposition.
Luckily for Lopes, he, too, has also made improvements to his boxing game in preparation for the big show.
Initially coming out of the gate as a jiu-jitsu brawler, Lopes has since sharpened up his striking form on the feet.
Not only does he incorporate better feints and footwork, but the 29-year-old seems to have a solid feel for throwing straight shots down the pike (something that I suspect will come in handy here given Ortega's history with straight punchers).
The jiu-jitsu nerd in me will be hoping to see this fight hit the floor, but I expect that the grappling exchanges will be short and sweet given each competitor's commensurate wrestling and scrambling ability.
Ortega vs. Lopes Pick
Despite the oddsmakers opening the Mexican-American as the slight favorite, money has come in on the Brazilian-Mexican, listing Lopes -135 and Ortega +115 as of this writing.
Given the line flip alone, there's no denying the inherent value on the Ortega side of things.
Not only is Ortega the more experienced and proven product at the UFC level, but "T-City" has shown an ability to swim in deep waters and still find success. Whereas Lopes, though deceptively experienced in his own right, has traditionally not done as well the deeper fights go.
That said, a lot of Lopes' losses come with interesting caveats attached.
For example, a bulk of Lopes' defeats come very early in his career when he was fighting at bantamweight – a division that he shouldn't have been even trying to compete in given how huge this kid is as a featherweight.
Furthermore, I believe that there are some stylistic trends that justify the line movement in Lopes' favor.
Whether we're talking about Lopes' propensity to counter kicks or his ability to throw straight shots, I suspect that he'll check off a lot of the boxes that have traditionally troubled Ortega standing.
On the ground, Lopes' offensive patterns – from takedowns to passes – naturally run opposite from Ortega's strong side (e.g. Ortega likes to choke with his left arm, but Lopes naturally sags his head to his opponent's right side).
And whenever Lopes is attacking from bottom, he usually targets the right arm of his opposition to hit his patent armbar, which is the same arm Ortega had issues with in his first fight with Yair Rodriguez.
Add in the fact that Ortega has been getting hurt more and more in recent years (both in and out of the octagon), and I can see why the public is siding with Lopes in this spot.
Although I was tempted to kick for coverage in the total department by taking the "Under 2.5 rounds," I found it hard to justify since it's essentially the same price tag as Lopes' moneyline.
I'll be firing on said moneyline for the reasons stated above, but given the prices for the unpredictability at play, it's a classic "pick a side and ride" position from me.
The Pick: Diego Lopes (-135 at Ceasars)
