UFC 303 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Charles Jourdain vs. Jean Silva: Smart Bet on Fighting Nerd (Saturday, June 29)

Charles Jourdain vs. Jean Silva Odds

Here's everything you need to know about the Charles Jourdain vs. Jean Silva odds for UFC 303 on Saturday, June 29 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.

With apologies to the UFC 303 co-main event, a different featherweight matchup would be my bet for Fight of the Night.

That's this one, between perennial action fighter Charles "Air" Jourdain and up-and-coming finisher Jean "Lord Assassin" Silva.

This is fairly classic matchmaking by the UFC: pairing a veteran with a roughly (or in this case exactly) .500 UFC record against an exciting upstart who's looked very good against lesser competition.

Will Silva, who actually missed weight (147.5 pounds) for the fight, take the next step forward in his burgeoning career? Or is it too much too soon for the Fighting Nerds prospect?

Read on to see how we're betting this fight.

Tale of the Tape

With his high striking output, limited interest in grappling, and solid power relative to the weight class, Charles Jourdain has a tendency to put on exciting fights. He's landed just one takedown in his 13-fight UFC career, compared to six knockdowns.

Jourdain has largely beaten the fighters he's supposed to beat while losing to tougher competition throughout his UFC run. That includes recent losses to Sean Woodson and Nathaniel Wood (combined UFC record 13-4) and wins over Kron Gracie and Ricardo Ramos (8-7).

Jourdain flashed his grappling against Ramos, picking up a first-round guillotine victory after Ramos initiated the grappling. While Jourdain earned the victory by scrambling his way back to guard and reapplying the submission, the result says more about Ramos' mistakes than Jourdain's abilities.

Which could also be a testament to Jourdain's striking. He landed some solid shots on the feet that inspired Ramos to initiate the grappling, which led to his demise.

Jourdain lists himself as a switch-stance fighter but primarily fights as a southpaw. He employs a pawing jab and check lead hook to open up opponents to power shots from his left side. Typically those come in the form of straight left hands and kicks to the body.

The straight left from a southpaw stance is his best strike, but he'll also work the body well at times, and he showcases solid all-around boxing. With that said, while his head movement keeps him out of trouble most of the time, he gets a bit overaggressive at times, which opens himself up to being hit.

The scouting report on Silva is somewhat similar except he fights from an orthodox stance. He starts out fights as a fairly disciplined boxer. He then begins to open up with kicks and knees as he gets into a rhythm.

It's hard to compare apples to apples given the quality of competition, but the early returns on Silva suggest he's the more powerful striker with nine of his 12 wins coming via knockout. He's certainly the better offensive grappler as well, though he could struggle to hold down the crafty Jourdain for long stretches.

Still, the threat of a takedown could open some doors for him in the striking here while any takedowns he does land could tip close rounds in his favor. He has a pair of submission victories to his name – both guillotines – though he's fairly unlikely to catch Jourdain on the ground.

Silva has also never been finished as a pro or knocked down (at least on video) and appears to be very durable.

Jourdain is probably the highest-caliber striker he's faced in his career, but we can at least say he's passed all of his previous durability tests.

Jourdain vs. Silva Pick

Given the stylistic and statistical similarities between these two fighters, the tight betting lines make a lot of sense. I'd personally make Silva the slight favorite based on his power and durability, which is why I loved betting him at plus-money early in the week.

The market has largely agreed with that sentiment, though, with this line moving closer as fight day approaches. The best line on Silva is -102, which I'd still consider, but I think there's a better way to play it.

That would be the "finish only" moneyline for Silva at -130. That's a bet that gets refunded if this one hits the judges, regardless of the winner.

Jourdain's striking is a bit crisper, and he'll likely win most of the minutes in a close fight. The bigger moments and finishing upside belong to Silva, though. All of his strikes do a ton of damage, and we've seen Jourdain hurt plenty of times before.

The market agrees that Silva is the likelier finisher, but we disagree on the order of magnitude. I'd take the finish-only line down to about -150 had I not already taken Silva's moneyline.

Similarly, the gap between Silva's moneyline (-102) and odds to win inside the distance (+250) are a bit longer than I'd handicap them. If you want a shot at a bigger payout, that's a strong option as well.

The Pick: Jean Silva – Finish Only Market (-130 at DraftKings)