Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes odds for UFC 303 on Saturday, June 29 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
In a UFC 303 main-card matchup that's been drawing early action from gamblers, Ian Machado Garry will take on Michael "Venom" Page at welterweight
Garry, who is currently undefeated at 14-0, is a brash prospect from Ireland who trains abroad.
Recently finding a new home with the Chute Boxe team down in Brazil, Garry will continue to test his skills and climb the ladder when he attempts to solve the puzzle that is Page.
One of the most unique entertainers this sport has seen, Page – despite his age and experience – is still lacking the UFC sample sizes to see exactly where the ceiling is for the English fighter.
Here's my Garry vs. Page pick and prediction for one of UFC 303's more anticipated bouts.
Tale of the Tape
| Garry | Page | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-0 | 22-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:45 | 6:28 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 171 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 79" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 11/17/1997 | 4/7/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.27 | 3.14 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 69% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.49 | 1.60 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.55 | 0.77 |
| TD Acc | 75% | 25% |
| TD Def | 69% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Garry and Page come from different martial arts backgrounds but carry a similar taste as far as conducting traffic on the feet goes.
Born into a family of martial artists, Page was indoctrinated into combat right out of the gate.
A self-proclaimed snake charmer, Page will distract opponents by making them look at the proverbial birdy before delivering pinpoint punches down the pike.
With the help of his incredible speed and reactive footwork, Page can facilitate his showmanship by dictating the range of striking lanes.
Even in his last fight with fellow lanky welterweight Kevin Holland, Page was able to punctuate his presence down the centerline despite any reach disadvantages.
That said, Page, akin to other karate-style point strikers in MMA, has shown an inherent susceptibility to leg kicks due to the bladed nature of his stance.
Although Garry gets a ton of crap for his persona, the kid is a sharp and skilled fighter and has shown that he can utilize tactics such as leg kicks appropriately in prior fights (e.g. his fight with Neil Magny).
Now that may seem both obvious and not that impressive given that Magny is clearly on the backend of his career and was fighting on short notice, but Garry showing the ability to fight smart is not something that should be overlooked in this equation.
Garry also shows solid jabbing instincts regardless of which stance he's in, building off his lead hand accordingly once finding his range.
Nevertheless, Garry will still need to be extra careful and crafty if he means to ply straight shots against a counterpuncher as savvy as Page.
Garry does have a black belt in judo in his back pocket, but Page has shown some deceptive, catch-wrestling-style grappling skills in the hand-fighting department that he uses to stay safe.
Machado Garry vs. Page Pick
Although the oddsmakers opened the Englishman as a slight favorite, public money has come in on the Irish fighter, listing Garry -160 and Page +135 as of this writing.
Between the hype of an undefeated fighter and the age of Page, I can totally understand the line movement in Garry's favor.
Garry may be a bit insufferable to listen to, but I greatly respect his skills as a fighter and think he has a high ceiling if he continues to progress at his current rate.
However, despite having a bit of an output edge on paper, I suspect that Page could nullify a lot of those numbers due to the countering dynamics at play.
When you look back at Garry's record, he's never really faced any noted counterstrikers and has usually struggled when anyone could time him coming in.
Now, "struggled" may come off dramatic on the first read, but allow me to remind you that Garry has almost been knocked out as a big favorite by counterstrikes before and generally doesn't wear his damage well (traditionally bruising and bleeding when crossing the proverbial finish line).
Against higher output strikers who aren't as savvy off the counter as Geoff Neal, Garry ended up finding himself in a slower-paced fight that was way too close for comfort given the usual price tags attached to him.
If Garry fails to establish his jab or regularly land leg kicks in the first frame, then I expect this fight to go South for the Irishman down the stretch.
Buyers beware: Low-output fights (as this one looks to be on paper) often lead to a wider variance of whacky scorecards.
That said, I believe that Page could quietly be one of Garry's toughest fights from a stylistic perspective – and for plus money on the moneyline, I'm willing to find out.
The Pick: Michael Page (+135 at Ceasars)
