UFC 303 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Joe Pyfer vs. Marc-Andre Barriault: Bet on Early Finish (Saturday, June 29)

Joe Pyfer vs. Marc-Andre Barriault Odds

Here's the latest on the Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes odds for UFC 303 on Saturday, June 29, with our expert UFC prediction and pick.

After four straight finishes inside of two rounds (counting the Contender Series), Joe Pyfer was arguably rushed into a main event slot against Jack Hermansson in February.

That one went about as expected with Pyfer having a strong start to the fight but fading down the stretch against the crafty veteran.

Now, Pyfer gets a chance to build his way back up the middleweight rankings when he takes on Marc-Andre Barriault. Barriault is solidly "just a guy" in the UFC with a 5-6 record, and he's a good matchup to build Pyfer back up.

At least that's how the market views it with Pyfer a nearly 3-1 favorite.

Let's see if we can find a better way to play it – or if that moneyline is justified – below.

Tale of the Tape

Barriault is somewhat unique in the middleweight division in that he's largely a volume-based striker without high-level finishing ability. While he's picked up stoppages in three of his five UFC wins, they all came against fighters with losing records, and the list includes a standing TKO, a mounted guillotine choke, and a ground-and-pound finish.

That's notable as he doesn't have clear one-punch knockout ability, which is the first of many apparent disadvantages in this matchup.

Barriault also isn't much of a grappler, having landed just two takedowns across his 12 UFC fights. To his credit, he's acquitted himself well when other fighters take things to the canvas. He's been submitted just once – by Anthony Hernandez – and was able to reverse takedowns from Jordan Wright to put himself in position for his submission victory in their bout.

How his grappling holds up will be a key point in the fight against Pyfer. While Pyfer is more known for his highlight-reel knockouts, he's a high-level grappler himself.

Pyfer showed that off in his last win, a submission victory over Abdul Razak Al-Hassan via arm triangle. He also stays active on the professional grappling circuit with wins over Gerald Meerschaert and Eryk Anders in grappling events.

He's a better submission grappler than takedown artist, with a 41% takedown rate. He relies on strength and athleticism more than technique to secure takedowns, which also goes a long way to explain his late-fight fade against Hermansson. No matter how good a fighter's cardio is, exerting that much effort takes a major toll on the gas tank.

Which isn't to say he even needs to grapple here. He has a considerable power edge over Barriault while his only career (T)KO loss came via an arm injury on a takedown.

Barriault could outpoint Pyfer on the feet by way of volume, but both fighters are fairly hittable, and Pyfer should have the bigger moments when he does land.

Pyfer vs. Barriault Pick

One of the frustrating things about trying to bet this fight is that it's easy to see Pyfer finishing this one with strikes or a submission. While most of his stoppage victories have been knockouts, his grappling is high-level enough that betting his knockout prop feels a bit risky.

Especially considering that Barriault has been stopped with strikes just once in his career – despite absorbing plenty of strikes in that time frame. I'd make Pyfer the slightly more durable fighter at this point, but it's not that wide of a gap.

One of the nice things about betting this fight is that Pyfer's inside-the-distance odds aren't all that far off from his knockout line. At DraftKings, the line is just +100 – with an industry-best line of +105.

With that said, I think we can do better. Pyfer has never picked up a finish after the end of the second round, and his record paints a picture of a fighter who's more dangerous early.

Therefore, I'm taking Pyfer in Rounds 1 or 2 at FanDuel, which is +155 as of Friday afternoon. You could toy with various same game parlays on DraftKings to accomplish the same goal – with better lines possible by shaving a few minutes off the end. I like getting the full two rounds, though, with a possible live bet on Barriault if Pyfer isn't able to get the job done.

The Pick: Joe Pyfer in Rounds 1 or 2 (+155 at FanDuel)