UFC 303 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson: Post-Steam Prop Bet (Saturday, June 29)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC women’s bantamweight Macy Chiasson
Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson Odds
| Bueno Silva Odds | -112 |
| Chiasson Odds | -112 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-195 / +143) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas |
| Time | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 303 odds as of Saturday and via BetRivers. Bet on UFC 303 with our BetRivers promo code. | |
Here's everything you need to know about the Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson odds for UFC 303 on Saturday, June 29 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
Saturday's UFC 303 main card features Mayra Bueno Silva, the No. 3-ranked contender in the UFC bantamweight rankings, against No. 7-ranked Macy Chiasson.
The steam is on Chiasson in this matchup; she opened with +175 odds on the moneyline and is now listed at -107 at BetRivers at the time of this writing.
I agree with the steam, and here is how I will be backing the underdog with a prop bet in my Bueno Silva vs. Chiasson preview for UFC 303.
Tale of the Tape
| Bueno Silva | Chiasson | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-3-1 | 10-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:01 | 10:04 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 136 lbs. | 135.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/22/1991 | 7/27/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.84 | 3.53 |
| SS Accuracy | 57% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.86 | 2.53 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 46% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.68 | 2.38 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 37% |
| TD Def | 68% | 62% |
| Submission Avg | 1.6 | 0.5 |
Bueno Silva began to fly up the bantamweight rankings with four consecutive victories between 2022 and 2023. The last of those got overturned to a no-contest due to a failed drug test, though it was for her ADHD medication and had absolutely no effect on her performance (which the Nevada State Athletic Commission even agreed upon in its statement).
Subsequently, Bueno Silva was awarded a title shot against Raquel Pennington in what was one of the bigger "fraud checks" the sport has seen in quite some time.
Pennington utterly dominated Bueno Silva in a fight that was never even competitive, and I think oddsmakers were looking at the larger sample size of the past couple of years when she opened as such a heavy favorite.
However, the market quickly adjusted – and for good reason. Yes, she was on a four-fight winning streak prior to that title opportunity, but those four wins came against Holly Holm (1-3 in her last four fights), Lina Lansberg (0-4 last four fights), Stephanie Egger (1-3 last four fights) and Wu Yanan (0-4 last four fights).
Pennington was a big step up for Bueno Silva, and she (very) clearly was not on that level.
Recency bias is still keeping Bueno Silva's line inflated, and that is good news when wanting to fade her once again.
Bueno Silva vs. Chiasson Pick
Chiasson may not be the greatest talent this division has seen, but she is still 7-3 since entering the UFC and is seemingly getting better as time progresses.
I specifically want to look at her matchup against Norma Dumont; I think Chiasson will win this fight as well.
Chiasson took down Dumont six (!) times en route to a decision victory.
Bueno Silva's takedown defense is not great (68%) and she is capable of getting dominated either on the mat or in the clinch (which is also how Pennington coasted to a decision victory over her).
Oddsmakers expect this fight to go the distance; that prop is currently listed at -155. That is good news for Chiasson because Bueno Silva's gas tank is perhaps her biggest weakness, and if oddsmakers are expecting neither fighter to get a finish, then that will naturally benefit Chiasson.
Sure, Bueno Silva could lock in a submission, which would neutralize the gas-tank disadvantage. However, Chiasson has tapped just once across 19 professional and amateur MMA bouts.
The Pick: Macy Chiasson by Decision (+180 at BetRivers) | Play to +170
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