Payton Talbott vs. Yanis Ghemmouri Odds
| Talbott Odds | -1667 |
| Ghemmouri Odds | +950 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-195 / +143) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| UFC 303 odds as of Saturday and via BetRivers. Bet on UFC 303 with our BetRivers promo code. | |
Here's the latest on the Payton Talbott vs. Yanis Ghemmouri odds for UFC 303 on Saturday, June 29, with our expert UFC prediction and pick.
Payton Talbott has an outside shot at closing as the heaviest moneyline favorite ever in a UFC fight. The line has hit as short as -2500 during fight week.
Who is Payton Talbott? Why is an 8-0 fighter with no real pre-MMA credentials being viewed so favorably by the market?
We'll get into that below, as well as address the chances of opponent Yannis Ghemmouri pulling off the biggest upset in UFC history.
Tale of the Tape
| Talbott | Ghemmouri | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-0 | 12-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:26 | 12:20 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135.5 lbs. | 136 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 69" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/9/1998 | 1/24/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 8.05 | 2.27 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 38% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.58 | 4.22 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 40% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 0% |
| TD Def | 90% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.0 |
The UFC has plenty of uber-prospects. In recent years we've had former kickboxing world champion Alex Pereira – who's headlining UFC 303 – and three-time NCAA national champion Bo Nickal, among others.
What sets Payton Talbott apart is that he's none of those things. According to an interview he gave this week, the 25-year-old had no combat sports experience as a youth, and he decided to start training MMA after seeing a Conor McGregor highlight:
It's wild to think that UFC 303’s Payton Talbott had no idea what the UFC was until a few years ago when he saw Conor McGregor highlights in a sushi restaurant.
UFC 303 will also be the first time Talbott is attending / fighting at a UFC event with fans.
"I was never a fan of… pic.twitter.com/ut72EYLdFr
— AFeldmanMMA (@afeldMMA) June 26, 2024
He doesn't even train at one of the sport's premier camps, instead staying in his Reno, Nevada, hometown to train with the Reno Academy of Combat, which boasts six pro fighters, none (other than Talbott) with more than five wins to his name.
All of which makes his rapid rise to the spotlight extremely interesting. He's 8-0 in his young career with seven finishes, and the weirdest/most interesting fighter YouTube channel in the sport.
Despite, or perhaps because of, his lack of martial arts background, Talbott is extremely well-rounded. His best attribute is his striking volume, which he's shown an ability to maintain across 15 minutes while remaining defensively responsible.
Since all of his training was done with MMA in mind, he also has a knack for mixing disciplines seamlessly. On top of that, his movement and reaction time are clearly elite, as is his ability to generate power in tight spaces. That coordination and reaction time are mostly a "you have it or you don't" quality and explains Talbott's quick ascent to borderline-elite levels.
In his last fight, he took on fellow well-regarded prospect Cameron Saaiman, who's also a well-regarded striker. Saaiman had never been outstruck at distance in any of his previous five UFC fights; Talbott outlanded him 54-30.
He was credited for one knockdown, a left hook that led to the fight-ending sequence. However, Talbott could've been given three, including another check hook and a knee from range. He utilizes all of his tools well, picking apart his opponents at distance.
His grappling isn't quite as strong, but it's hard to classify it as a weakness. He fought Nick Aguirre in his previous fight, and he was taken down twice. One of those takedowns led to control time for Aguirre, but not a single significant strike. Talbott reversed the other one and won the round from the top. In the third round, Talbott defended a takedown, landed in mount, and found a submission of his own.
The way to beat Talbott might be through the grappling, which is the glimmer of hope for Yannis Ghemmouri. Ghemmouri has four of his 12 wins by submission, and he's probably the better pure submission fighter in this matchup.
However, in his UFC debut, Ghemmouri failed to convert on any of his four takedown attempts against the less-talented William Gomis and has no strong wrestling background to speak of.
This is frankly a big step down in competition for Talbott, and this fight is booked to showcase his skills to a wider audience.
Talbott vs. Ghemmouri Pick
Even as a roughly 10-1 underdog, nothing about Ghemmouri's skill set gives me much optimism here. Talbott can be slightly hittable at times, but Ghemmouri doesn't have the power to capitalize on that, nor does he have the wrestling to make this a slopfest on the ground.
At the same time, we're not laying nearly 20-1 on Talbott. Strange things happen in MMA, and the juice isn't worth the squeeze.
My favorite play at the moment is the Under 1.5 rounds at +170 on BetRivers. Talbott finished a much tougher opponent in less time than that, and he's made a note of getting out to faster starts in recent fights.
That's a substantially better price than playing Talbott inside the distance or by knockout, so jump on BetRivers' market-best line.
The Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds (+170 at BetRivers)
