Rei Tsuruya vs. Carlos Hernandez Odds
Here's the latest on the Rei Tsuruya vs. Carlos Hernandez odds for UFC 303 on Saturday, June 29, with our expert pick and prediction.
This flyweight fight, which is part of the early prelims on ESPN, is a showcase opportunity for Tsuruya.
However, is his 5-1 price tag really justified?
Let's jump into it.
Tale of the Tape
| Tsuruya | Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-0 | 9-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:46 | 10:50 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125.5 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/22/2002 | 10/25/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.9 | 5.0 |
| SS Accuracy | 62% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.44 | 4.54 |
| SS Defense | 44% | 46% |
| Take Down Avg | 6.8 | 1.1 |
| TD Acc | 54% | 15% |
| TD Def | 50% | 65% |
| Submission Avg | 4.0 | 0.3 |
I'm highly interested in Rei Tsuruya as a prospect. Although his striking is green, he's very young (22 years old), has an excellent grappling base, and has an aggressive demeanor.
For his official UFC debut, company officials are feeding Carlos Hernandez – most recently KO'ed by fellow Japanese prospect Tatsuro Taira – to Tsuruya.
Hernandez is 3-2 in the UFC (albeit with a pair of split decisions), is the better and busier striker in this matchup, and has shown excellent cardio and relentless scrambling.
If Hernandez can survive to the second round, he could be live to pull off the upset.
Still, Hernandez tends to give up his back as he stands, and Tsuruya will seize upon that position where, like Taira, he prefers to work and hunt for submissions.
If Tsuruya can't finish the fight, however, it could turn into a damage vs. control measurement on the scorecards, where Hernandez lands the more impactful strikes, and he may have superior cardio down the stretch.
Tsuruya vs. Hernandez Picks
As a result of all of the above, I'd look to roll a pre-fight violence bet on Tsuruya to win early into a live angle on Hernandez after Round 1.
Target Tsuruya by submission (projected +128, listed +200) or by Round 1 submission (+480) pre-fight and wait for a better price on Hernandez.
The Picks: Rei Tsuruya wins by Submission (+205 at BetRivers, 0.25u) | Carlos Hernandez Live after Round 1
