Ricky Simon vs. Vinicius Oliveira Odds
| Simon Odds | -250 |
| Oliveira Odds | +200 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 rounds (-110 / -130) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena – Las Vegas |
| Time | 6 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN & ESPN+ |
| UFC 303 odds as of Saturday evening and via bet365. Bet on UFC 303 with our bet365 promo code. | |
Here's everything you need to know about the Ricky Simon vs. Vinicius Oliveira odds for UFC 303 on Saturday, June 29 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
Kicking off Saturday's UFC 303 early preliminary card is a bantamweight bout between unranked contenders Ricky Simon and Vinicius Oliveira.
Will we see a firefight or a snoozer in the UFC 303 curtain-jerker?
I will be targeting the total in UFC 303's opening bout, as I detail below in my Simon vs. Oliveira preview.
Tale of the Tape
| Simon | Oliveira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-5 | 20-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:49 | 8:52 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 136 lbs. | 136 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 8/31/1992 | 11/30/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.0 | 5.4 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.6 | 2.9 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 5.49 | 1.69 |
| TD Acc | 46% | 50% |
| TD Def | 76% | 40% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.0 |
I think the betting market is forgetting just who exactly Ricky Simon is.
He is a massive talent at 135 pounds and is 9-4 since joining the UFC with multiple marquee wins, including one over upcoming title challenger Merab Dvalishvili.
Yes, Simon has dropped two straight fights, but those came against Song Yadong and Mario Bautista. Both of those guys are currently in the top 12 of the division, which is leaps and bounds above Oliveira's current position in terms of his MMA journey.
While Oliveira is 2-0 under the UFC umbrella, those wins came against Victor Madrigal (not currently in any big promotion) and Benardo Sopaj (zero UFC wins). The reason Oliveira is receiving such a massive step-up in competition is because both of those wins were by violent knockouts, which Dana White and company always reward.
However, he needs to walk before he runs in the UFC, and Simon is way too large of an increase in competition.
Simon vs. Oliveira Pick
My biggest concern for Oliveira is that his takedown defense is exposable. Sopaj took him down three times on four attempts, and with all due respect to Sopaj, if he can do that, then Simon will also be able to do so effortlessly.
Simon is a takedown machine, landing at least two in eight consecutive fights. Once there, two things can happen: Either Simon holds position and coasts to a decision victory, or he locks in a submission. With that said, Oliveira has never tapped across 23 professional fights.
Now, the entire 15-minute affair won't take place on the mat, and there will be exchanges on the feet. Oliveira is capable of landing big shots, and perhaps even stealing rounds where he lands more damage while Simon tries to accumulate control time on the mat.
Due to this thinking, I think there is more value in backing this fight to go the distance at +125 rather than taking Simon's decision prop at +200. You just never know with these judges, and in a sport where damage is increasingly being valued over control time, there is a world where Oliveira steals this fight on the cards.
Either way, I believe the judges' input will be needed.
The Pick: Fight Goes to Decision (+125 at bet365) | Play to +115
