UFC 303 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Pereira vs Prochazka, Ortega vs Lopes & More (Saturday, June 29)

Check out our UFC 303 best bets for the pay-per-view event on Saturday, June 29, which features Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka in the main event.

Editor's Note: Brian Ortega has withdrawn from the UFC 303 co-main event due to illness. He has been replaced at the last minute by Dan Ige, who will face Diego Lopes. Lopes is currently anywhere from a -250 to -270 favorite in the spontaneous matchup.

UFC 303 takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Following an early preliminary card (6 p.m. ET) and regular prelims (8 p.m. ET) both on ESPN, the main card is available on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).

Despite some major shakeups to the card, including a makeshift but can't-miss UFC 303 main event, Saturday offers lots of betting opportunities.

So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s stacked card that present betting value.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from DraftKings.

Matchup odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 303 with our DraftKings promo code.

Moneyline Projections

Prop Projections

UFC 303 Odds & Best Bets

Billy Ward: Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Gillian Robertson

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET

Look, I get it. Laying -180 or so on possibly the least-anticipated fight on the UFC 303 card (depending on your feelings about heavyweights) isn’t the most exciting pick. In my defense, I’m not even suggesting you necessarily watch the fight – just bet it.

But in terms of the best chance to make the most return on your betting dollar, this just might be it. Gillian Robertson (-175) is 10-6 in the UFC, and she's entering her prime at age 29. She’s won three of her past four fights, all be finish with the lone loss a relatively competitive decision to Tabatha Ricci.

She’s somehow ranked one spot behind her UFC 303 opponent, Michelle Waterson-Gomez (+145), despite Waterson-Gomez having just one win in her last seven fights. That win wasn’t even very convincing; it came via split decision over Angela Hill in a bout more media members scored for Hill.

While Waterson has fought somewhat tougher competition than Robertson during that span, she’s also 38. Her best days are pretty clearly behind her, and even during her peak her ceiling was mostly “boring decision victory.”

This one could be pretty ugly on the feet. Both women have negative striking differentials in the UFC octagon and nary a knockdown between them. However, Robertson has a massive grappling and athleticism edge. She holds wins over a few UFC flyweights in grappling competitions, including submissions against Rose Namajunas and Katlyn Chookagian.

Even if this one stays mostly on the feet, Waterson-Gomez’s typical strategy of punching the air a foot in front of her opponent isn’t super compelling for the judges, so a stray takedown or two could steal the fight for Robertson. If she gets one early she’ll look like an even bigger favorite, so I like her -180 moneyline.

The Pick: Gillian Robertson (-180 at Caesars)

Sean Zerillo: Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:05 p.m. ET

Ian Machado Garry isn't well-liked by the UFC fan base – both for his unexciting fighting style and cringy personality – and he's nearly lost in four of his seven UFC bouts while running his career record to 14-0. As a result, some people want to bet against Garry because they want to see him KO'ed – while others think he's not an exceptionally high-level fighter.

I'm no Garry (-166) fan, but I view him as a high-level welterweight prospect. Michael "Venom" Page (+140) represents a potential step down in competition relative to his previous opponents.

Garry is the younger and much quicker athlete; as I regularly mention, when there's at least a decade between UFC opponents, the younger fighter wins about 13% more frequently than expected 71% of the time at average odds of -136 (57.8% implied). There's likely a difference in effect when the fighters are 18 and 28; the 18-year-old is further away from his physical prime in that scenario. However, the differential between Garry and Page (26 vs. 37) puts "MVP" on the wrong side of the age curve.

While Page has a five-inch reach advantage, Garry has a massive advantage in leg length – and will use calf kicks and teep kicks to frustrate his opponent from range.

Page relies on his unique footwork, movement and unorthodox attack angles to frustrate opponents – like an English version of Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson. However, while Page can crack, he's a low-volume fighter who looks for big moments rather than reliably banking minutes.

Garry is the more proactive striker but also possesses a severe grappling advantage in this fight. He came from a judo base and spent a lot of time out-grappling opponents during his welterweight title run in Cage Warriors, and I'm sure he continues to drill grappling positions while training full-time at Chute Boxe in Brazil. And if Kevin Holland had grappled more proactively, he may have won a close and competitive decision in his fight against MVP.

Garry is the faster athlete and has the tools (kicks and grappling) to frustrate Page from a distance and pull ahead on the scorecards. Honestly, I thought his last matchup against Geoff Neal – who hits harder than Page and can counter-grapple – was a more difficult test. He's shown that he can strike and grapple with the best fighters in the division, and I think Page is drawing dead to a knockout in this fight.

That's certainly in the realm of possibility. Page swings hard, and Garry has shown his chin to be a potential detriment to securing UFC gold or holding onto it for very long. Still, I expect the Irishman to fight for a title shortly, and we should see another clean performance on Saturday, where he mixes his well-rounded skillset.

Bet Garry on the moneyline to -180 (projected -200) and consider adding his decision prop (projected +130, listed +150) or submission prop (projected +900, listed +1000) on round-robin tickets.

The Pick: Ian Machado Garry (-145 at BetMGM)

Dann Stupp: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes — FIGHT CANCELED

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET

Editor's note: Ortega has been replaced by Dan Ige due to an illness for Ortega.

Despite the late change of this fight from featherweight to lightweight, which would seemingly benefit the 155-pound-bound Brian Ortega (+130), I think his UFC 303 co-main-event opponent, Diego Lopes (-155), still has too many advantages in this fight.

I worry about the short-notice nature of this bout for Ortega, I worry that his durability is really starting to wane, and I worry that Lopes is going to exploit all of it for his latest signature victory.

With five victories in six fights – all by stoppage – 29-year-old Lopes has shown the growth and maturation that is needed to evolve from UFC prospect to UFC contender. Not all up-and-comers past that test, but with his recent 90-second wins over Pat Sabatini and Sodiq Yusuff, Lopes can take yet another step up the ladder with a win over former title challenger Ortega.

As my colleague Sean Zerillo mentioned in our full UFC 303 odds preview, Ortega is a pretty bad minute-winner. And against Lopes, I think he's unlikely to win the damage/effectiveness battle, even if he's on top since Lopes will remain effective off his back.

However, I'm not sure it's even going to matter. Lopes has solid takedown defense, and he couples it with a violent strive to finish bouts. And as Dan Tom mentioned in his Ortega vs. Lopes preview, Lopes has some specific stylistic matchups that play to his favor.

I've long been a "T-City" fan, and part of me will always root for him. But Lopes is the next generation of contender, and I think he's going to show why in Saturday night's co-main event with a hard-fought but winning effort.

Bet Lopes at -138, and take him down to -155.

The Pick: Diego Lopes (-138 at Betway)

Tony Sartori: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET

Saturday's UFC main event features a light heavyweight title bout as Alex Pereira (-142) defends his belt against Jiri Prochazka (+120). Pereira opened as a -175 favorite, and that line has since been bet down to its current price.

I agree with the steam, and I think that the underdog is worth backing at plus money.

These are two of the heaviest hitters in the world, and either guy can win this bout by knockout. That is the most likely outcome regardless of which guy you are backing.

Pereira knocked out Prochazka the last time these two squared off for the title, which is why he opened up as such a big favorite. However, there are a couple of reasons why I like Jiri this time around.

First, Prochazka was winning that first fight before getting caught. He went up 10-9 on all three official scorecards following the first round.

Second, I think octagon rust may have hurt Prochazka in that fight, given that it had been 17 months since he dethroned Glover Teixeira for the title in Brazil.

Regardless, at the end of the day, I would simply be backing either guy who returned plus-money in this fight as both possess one-touch power and can strike among the best in the world. In this case, it is Prochazka that gives us the value in a bout that I perceive as being much closer to a coin flip than the odds indicate.

If Israel Adesanya can sleep Pereira at 185 pounds, then Prochazka can undoubtedly do the same at 205 pounds.

The Pick: Jiri Prochazka (+135 at Caesars)