Check out our early UFC predictions for UFC 303 this Saturday, June 29, with our Luck Ratings.
UFC 303 takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Following a preliminary card on ESPN (6 p.m. ET), the pay-per-view main card is available on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or in which one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
*UFC 303 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 303 with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 303 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Alex Pereira (-162) vs. Jiri Prochazka (+136)
This is normally where I'd describe the main event as "highly anticipated" or something to that effect – but we weren't given much time to anticipate it. Conor McGregor's withdrawal from UFC 303 put the UFC into panic mode, and what they came up with was a compelling rematch for the light heavyweight title.
Alex Pereira originally won the vacant light heavyweight title from Jiri Prochazka this past November after both Prozchaka and Jamahal Hill were forced to vacate the belt due to injuries at different points. "Poatan" went on to defeat Hill at UFC 300, more or less closing the circle on who the rightful champion is.
With that said, Prochazka's fight against Pereira was his first back after a significant injury to his shoulder – for that matter, Hill's fight was his first back following a ruptured Achilles tendon – so there are still some reasonable questions to be asked.
Both fighters were last seen at UFC 300, where Pereira knocked out Hill while Prochazka picked up a knockout of his own against Alexander Rakic. Neither was training for a fight when the fighters got the call for 303, making this somewhat level ground.
However, reports are Pereira was on a seminar tour of Australia while dealing with a couple of broken toes. Prochazka was likely still training hard in the mountains outside of his hoot:
The other factor worth pointing out is that Prochazka won the first round of their previous fight on all three judges' scorecards while the second-round stoppage he suffered was highly questionable.
"BJP" has a wild style that leads to a lot of "winning until he doesn't" (and "losing until he doesn't"), but it's still worth factoring in.
Because of all that, I love getting Prochazka at plus money here. The best line currently available is +142 (FanDuel), and the odds seem to be slowly dropping, so jump on it now.
Verdict: Jiri Prochazka Undervalued
Roman Dolidze (-148) vs. Anthony Smith (+124)
This main-card fight (in a manner of speaking) was originally between the aforementioned Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree. A series of events saw Rountree replaced with Carlos Ulberg, Hill replaced with Anthony Smith, and now Ulberg replaced with Roman Dolidze.
Which is where it stands now, barring anymore issues with the event. Dolidze typically fights at middleweight, but he's stepping up 20 pounds (185 to 205) on short notice to take on Smith at light heavyweight.
Which is why I'm surprised to see Dolidze as the favorite. Smith is also a former middleweight, and his biggest issues at light heavyweight have typically been has durability. Now he gets a middleweight more known for his grappling than striking.
That's an excellent draw for Smith, whose own elite grappling – plus the extra size – means he should at least be competitive on the ground, if not outright win those exchanges.
Plus he's the better striker, with slightly more time to prepare for the matchup. Smith should be favored here, so grab the +125 lines (bet365, ESPN BET or Betfred) while they're still there.
Verdict: Anthony Smith Undervalued
Charles Jourdain (-120) vs. Jean Silva (+100)
This fight has seen by far the most line movement on the card. Charles Jourdain opened around -200 at early-posting books – and -150 or so last week when the rest of the market joined in.
That's a pretty strong signal on the underdog Jean Silva, even if we aren't getting the best of the price. He's still +105 at Caesars Sportsbook, though I suspect he'll flip to being favored there by Saturday.
I fully agree with the movement toward the Fighting Nerds prospect. Silva's officially 1-0 in the UFC (plus a win on the Contender Series) but has finished eight of his last nine fights in the first round.
Jourdain is 6-6-1 in the UFC, largely beating lesser competition but losing against higher-level opponents.
I see Silva as belonging to the latter category, so grab your shares now before the line totally flips.
Verdict: Jean Silva undervalued
Gillian Robertson (-170) vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez (+142)
Another fight with some considerable line movement is the women's prelim bout between Gillian Robertson and Michelle "Karate Hottie" Waterson-Gomez.
Robertson was around -210 last week with the line coming back in early on fight week.
Unlike the previous fight, this one doesn't make much sense at all. Waterson-Gomez has lost four in a row with her last win coming via split decision. The last time she won a fight clearly was March 2019.
She's also 38, so it's hard to see a turnaround coming at this point for her.
Especially against Robertson, who's won three of her last four fights, all by finish. Robertson is a high-level grappler with recent grappling wins over UFC flyweights Rose Namajunas and Montana De La Rosa. She should have no problem with the smaller, older Waterson-Gomez in the grappling exchanges.
I'm not betting this one yet; I'm still holding out for an even better line. However, it's worth keeping an eye on in case it starts to trend the other direction. Timing the market is tricky – and I'd definitely take the -170 if you don't have the time to track it – but I wouldn't be surprised with some further movement.
