UFC 303 Props: 7 Long Shot Picks from MMA Prop Squad (Saturday, June 29)

Check out our UFC props for UFC 303 with our favorite long shot picks for Saturday, June 29.

UFC 303 takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Following a full preliminary card on ESPN (6 p.m. ET), the pay-per-view main card is available on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).

Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +18.3 units and a +4.5% ROI per bet during two years of action.

As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.

UFC 303 odds for matchups as of Saturday evening and via FanDuel. Bet on the UFC with our FanDuel promo code.

UFC 303 Props – MMA Prop Squad Picks

Billy Ward: The Battle of Tested Chins

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET

I fully came into this fight expecting to find a way to bet on Andre Fili (-220). Cub Swanson (+184) is on the wrong side of 40 and in a featherweight division that typically favors youth.

Then I started watching some tape. Specifically on Fili, who at 34 is no spring chicken himself. Fili's been knocked out four times in his career, all in the UFC – with two of those in the last 26 months. He was also dropped by Nathaniel Wood, who has landed just one other knockdown in 10 UFC fights, in that time frame.

Given that this matchup is between two dynamic strikers with relatively loose attitudes toward defense and limited interest in grappling, and odds are pretty good that this one will become a battle of chins at some point.

Despite his age and mileage, Swanson has been knocked out only three times in his career. While two were fairly recently, they were via kicks to the leg and body. I broke down in my full Swanson vs. Fili preview of this fight why Swanson is especially vulnerable to leg kicks – and noted that Fili doesn’t often employ them.

Besides, power is often the last thing to go, and Swanson has always had plenty of it with six knockouts in the UFC. This matchup gives him a great shot at picking up one more at more than 5-1 odds.

The Pick: Cub Swanson by KO/TKO/DQ (+550 at bet365)

John LanFranca: Bad Matchup for Page's Second Effort

Contributor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:05 p.m. ET

Michael "Venom" Page (+138) ooked great in his UFC debut against Kevin Holland, which has given bettors a great opportunity to capitalize on a much more difficult matchup for MVP. Holland does not possess the speed or power of Ian Machado Garry (-164), and he could never really figure out the puzzle that is Page.

Page’s karate style is effective, but I think it has been quite some time since he was in the cage with a fighter as fast or as polished as Garry. Page keeps his hands low and darts in and out of range, which means getting caught could lead to disaster.

I am willing to bet that the younger, ever-improving striker can catch the 37-year-old at some point over 15 minutes.

Garry has out-landed six straight opponents in the significant strike department, and I expect him to make it seven on Saturday night.

Oddly, Garry’s lackluster striking defense actually enhances the chances of this bet cashing. If Page feels like he is able to land on Garry, he may throw more volume than we saw in his UFC debut.

If a technical brawl breaks out, I again trust Garry more to catch Page coming in with something that could end the fight.

Furthermore, this exact prop is +350 at BetMGM and +400 on DraftKings, so we are getting a significant boost on FanDuel at the time of writing this.

The Pick: Ian Machado Garry by KO/TKO (+460 at FanDuel)

Clint MacLean: Garry on the Ground

Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:05 p.m. ET

Ian Machado Garry is so underrated it's wild. People want to hate this kid, but he is doing everything right.

Now, the UFC is now setting him up with a huge opportunity to steal the hype right off of Michael Page, the longtime Bellator fighter who recently made his UFC debut.

What we can always count on Garry for is high IQ and taking the path of least resistance. Here at UFC 303 against Page, that's grappling and getting the fight to the mat.

Garry has been improving his overall MMA game, and he is training with Charles Oliveira for this fight. The kid is an underrated grappler, and I have tried to attack his submission prop before. It's a long shot, so don't go crazy, but there is a very real chance that Garry will take down a dangerous striker like Page and find his opening.

The Pick: Ian Machado Garry by Submission (+1000 at DraftKings)

Dan Tom: "Lionheart" for a Late Finish

Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET

For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target a main-card attraction between Anthony Smith (+114) and Roman Dolidze (-146).

Aside from Smith being an incredibly live underdog as the more proven product, "Lionheart" is no stranger to finding success in short-notice fights.

Dolidze may be the flashier fighter with fewer miles on him, but the Georgian powerhouse's wins haven't exactly been the most replicable (nor has his process been the most reliable).

Add in the fact that Dolidze will be taking this fight up a division with some decent travel in tow, and I believe that he could be in for a long night at the office if he fails to hurt Smith early.

Although I'm already kicking for coverage on Smith's moneyline, I suspect that the American could be the first person to officially finish Dolidze given the intangibles at play.

In his most recent fight, we almost saw Dolidze finished by Nassourdine Imavov with a combination into clinch space that resembles an awful lot of Smith's past finishing flurries.

For that reason, I'll also be sprinkling on Smith to win in Round 3 considering that the former title challenger will probably be breaking down Dolidze early and often with his jab from range.

The Pick: Anthony Smith in Round 3 (+1300 at FanDuel)

Tony Sartori: Don't Sleep on Ortega's Submission Game

Contributor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET

Editor's Note: Brian Ortega has withdrawn from the UFC 303 co-main event due to illness. He has been replaced at the last minute by Dan Ige, who will face Diego Lopes. Lopes is currently anywhere from a -250 to -270 favorite in the spontaneous matchup.

Saturday's UFC 303 co-main event features a featherweight bout between No. 3-ranked UFC contender Brian Ortega (+123) and No. 14 Diego Lopes (-152). This play is more so because of sheer principle: I don't care who the opponent is, Ortega should not be catching +650 on a submission prop against a single 145-pounder in the UFC.

I am a huge fan of Lopes and the run he's on, and he is correctly priced as the betting favorite. However, at some point we have to see whether the hype is correctly earned.

Saturday is when we find out. Ortega is still one of the best featherweights on the planet (even though he is moving up to lightweight for and after this scrap).

And, while I do appreciate Lopes and his potential, I think we need to pump the breaks on this hype until he beats a guy of Ortega's caliber. Lopes is still a guy who lost each of his first two opportunities within the UFC, and his wins have come against Gavin Tucker (3-3 last six fights), Pat Sabatini (1-2 last three fights) and Sodiq Yusuff (2-3 last five fights).

Lopes is likely to win the exchanges on the feet, but he's not going to knock out Ortega. Ortega's two "TKO" losses are by doctor's stoppage and a freak accident of a dislocated shoulder, and Lopes isn't going to bring the violence that Max Holloway brought to cause a doctor's intervention.

You're also not going to submit Ortega. So that means that we are likely to see 15 minutes of action, and I just don't see a world where you can't justify taking a shot on Ortega to lock in a submission at +650 across those 15 minutes against a still very unproven (but rising) fighter.

The Pick: Brian Ortega by Submission (+650 at Betfred & Hard Rock)

Bryan Fonseca: Betting on Bad Pereira Defense

Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET

I know everyone loves UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira, and he's a terrifying striker who is justifiably favored in this fight, but I can't get over the constant defensive lapses in his bouts that only Israel Adesanya has been able to take advantage of in a damaging way.

Pereira leaves himself open on exchanges. The trade-off is that he can flatten you. He can literally lay you out.

But if he's across someone who is able to stand in the pocket – or even more preferably, defend and counter, bounce in and out of range effectively or have finishing ability – he could get stopped again.

Pereira (-148) stopped Prochazka (+126) at UFC 295. But we can file away a couple of things from those two rounds before the stoppage.

Prochazka was damaged by leg kicks. He also looked to land his overhand right and eventually did hit a big one in Round 2 with 2:58 to go after landing a counter left hook. Prochazka rocked him again 10 seconds later and legitimately hurt the light heavyweight champion up against the cage, causing Pereira to backpedal.

Prochazka is an equally frightening striker in terms of power. You always have to at least look at the underdog in a potentially explosive fight that will predominately take place on the feet.

He was winning in Round 2 and just got caught. I think it's worth a long-shot sprinkle to finish the story, so to speak, and even would consider betting him on the moneyline to win straight up.

I'm going to split my pick this week and bet on Prochazka via Round 1 KO (+700) and Round 2 KO (+950).

The Picks: Jiri Prochazka by Round 1 KO (+700 at FanDuel) | Prochazka by Round 2 KO (+950 at FanDuel)