For many MMA fans, fight night wouldn't be complete without UFC 303 parlays to sweat.
And I've got two, including a same-game parlay, for tonight's pay-per-view event.
UFC 303 has finally materialized, and while the card has changed quite a bit, the opportunity to target fights to end in a violent manner has only increased. Per usual, I have found three spots that I expect the judges to render unnecessary for a UFC 303 parlay.
All three potential finishes pay plus money this weekend, which means we are swinging for the fences on this particular parlay.
UFC 303 takes place on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas with prelims on ESPN (6 p.m. ET) and the main card on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).
Let's dive into my UFC parlay for tonight.
UFC 303 Parlay
Parlay Leg 1: Martin Buday by finish (+170)
This is not an endorsement of Martin Buday in any way, but rather it's a fade of 45-year-old Andrei Arlovski. Arlovski has dropped three consecutive fights, and in two of those three, he was finished within the first two rounds. The long-ago UFC champ managed to get his most recent bout to decision back in January; otherwise. there is almost no scenario we would be getting plus money in this spot.
Buday, at minimum, should be able to get inside to land damage in the clinch with the possibility for a takedown as well. In any of these scenarios, Arlovski, at his advanced fighting age, will be in danger of getting clipped or submitted.
Parlay Leg 2: Roman Dolidze by finish (+185)
This number is off by a considerable margin. Roman Dolidze took this fight on short notice, but he also likely avoided any type of weight cut. Dolidze has a massive durability edge over his opponent, Anthony Smith, and he will be able to dictate where the fight plays out.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Smith is wobbled or hurt badly by some of the shots we saw Marvin Vettori withstand against Dolidze. Dolidze has finished 10 opponents in his 12 career victories, and we would again be getting a much worse price here if the recency bias of Smith’s latest upset submission wasn’t baked in.
Parlay Leg 3: Diego Lopes by finish (+130)
The ceiling for a talent such as Diego Lopes is still undetermined. Each of his last three opponents survived for just about 90 seconds due to the incredible power and explosivity of Lopes. His opponent, Brian Ortega, lacks the defensive striking prowess, at just 49% striking defense, to prevent the early onslaught from Lopes, which is quite concerning if you are backing Ortega in this spot.
While I found it unlikely either fighter gets submitted, it’s hard for me to envision a fight that lasts the full 15 minutes after what we have seen from Lopes thus far in his UFC career. I am fully backing the younger, more explosive fighter here who has absorbed much less damage during this time inside the cage.
UFC 303 All-Violence Parlay:
- Martin Buday by KO/TKO or submission (+170)
- Roman Dolidze by KO/TKO or submission (+185)
- Diego Lopes by KO/TKO or submission (+130)
UFC 303 Parlay: +1669 at FanDuel
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
UFC 303 Same Game Parlay (SGP)
While we are shooting for the moon on this week’s violence parlay, we are going to simply triple the value of the underdog in the main event by correlating his path to victory in our same-game parlay.
If you're liking the Jiri Prochazka side of the light heavyweight title fight rematch against Alex Pereira with the latest UFC 303 odds, you are going to love this substantial increase in payout.
At UFC 295 in November, when these two fights met, Prochazka was doing exactly what he needed to do to win the fight. His unorthodox movements and grappling edge were apparent against the current champ.
In Round 1, Prochazka was able to land a takedown and was able to outstrike Pereira 23-17 in total strikes landed by throwing with more volume (33 to 26). Officially, when it came to significant strikes, the numbers ended up even, 11-11, after the first frame.
Prochazka really has no choice in this second fight but to follow a similar game plan. While both fighters could land a fight-ending shot at a moment's notice, Pereira, at this point, seems to have the durability edge. Prochazka cannot just stand in front of the champion at distance because he will eat too many leg kicks and will eventually run into another left hook.
Prochazka would be wise to go to his grappling early once again, and that is what I am expecting. While standing, Prochazka can attack from different angles and move out of harm's way en route to landing damage on Pereira.
The good thing about this bet is we don’t have to be accurate in predicting the length of this bout or even how the finish materializes. We need only Prochazka to get his hand raised while adding in what would very likely be his path to victory.
Thus, my UFC 303 same-game parlay is:
- Jiri Prochazka moneyline (3-way)
- Prochazka most significant strikes
- Prochazka most takedowns
