UFC 304 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Aspinall vs Blaydes, Green vs Pimblett & More (Saturday, July 27)

Check out the UFC 304 best bets with our expert picks and predictions for the pay-per-view event on Saturday, July 27.

UFC 304 takes place at Co-op Live in Manchester, England, but it airs in its traditional pay-per-view timeslot here in North America. Following a preliminary card on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) and ESPN2 (8 p.m.), the main card is on ESPN PPV+ at 10 p.m. ET.

With 14 fights and many household names on tonight's lineup, UFC 304 is one of the bigger events of late.

So where should you look to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and six picks on Saturday’s British card that present betting value.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from DraftKings.

UFC 304 odds for matchups as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 304 with DraftKings promo code!

Moneyline Projections

Prop Projections

UFC 304 Odds & Best Bets

Tony Sartori: Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons

Contributor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET

Saturday's UFC 304 early prelims feature a welterweight bout between Oban Elliott (+136) and Preston Parsons (-162). Elliott looks to build upon his solid start to his UFC tenure, which includes a 2-0 record with two decision victories.

Elliott dominated Val Woodburn in his latest win, an effort that consisted of both striking at range and dominating with the wrestling on the mat. That is the name of the game for Elliott, who is strong and can win any fight that takes place on the mat.

That is good news for this specific matchup against Parsons.

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Is Parsons the superior mixed martial artist? Yes, and he is rightfully favored. However, Parsons also prefers a wrestling game plan, so the majority of this fight will likely take place on the mat.

I think that is bad news for Parsons for two primary reasons. First, Parsons' gas tank is questionable, which always bodes poorly in fights where 15 minutes of wrestling are expected to occur.

Second, Elliott is the stronger (physically) of the two wrestlers, which means he will be able to pull off reversals more easily and could end rounds in top position. If that is the case, he can steal rounds even if he had not been winning them, which judges will often do when it's a close round and one guy ends up on top.

I think Parsons is the superior fighter, but this just screams like a bad matchup for him, and I think Elliott is certainly a live underdog at +122.

The Pick: Oban Elliott ML (+130 at Caesars Sportsbook) | Play to +115

Billy Ward: Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:25 p.m. ET

A gambling and fantasy sports axiom I try to live by is this: Bet on what athletes will do, not what we think they should do. It’s easy to blame a losing bet on a fighter not following the game plan that seems ideal, even if they haven’t always proven that they’ll take the easy road.

I bring that rule up to almost immediately break it with my bet on “Robocop” (pronounced “Hobocop”). Gregory Rodrigues is an elite jiu-jitsu competitor with national level wrestling experience with a tendency to find himself brawling against strikers despite his suspect chin.

There are a couple of reasons I’m going against my usual methods here. The first, and most important, is the price. I wouldn’t lay juice based on hope, but I’m willing to take plus money on it. If Rodrigues (+114) grapples effectively against Christian Leroy Duncan (-135), he’ll look like a -1000 favorite.

The other reason specific to this fight is this: Rodrigues won’t be drawing totally dead in the standup. He’s a solid striker in his own right, with massive power. While Duncan is the quicker and longer man, the threat of a takedown from Rodrigues should deter some of the former basketball player's jumping and spinning attacks.

Even if they stand in the middle and play Rock 'Em Sock 'Em Robots, Rodrigues might land first. That’s the worst-case scenario for how this fight plays out and it’s not all that bad. Certainly not bad enough to pass up the slight plus-money on Rodrigues.

The Pick: Gregory Rodrigues (+118 at Caesars)

Sean Zerillo: Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett

Senior Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET

Bobby Green, who recently changed his first name to "King," opened as a -190 favorite (65.5% implied) in this matchup, which has moved down to -115 (53.5% implied) as of writing – and may flip toward opponent Paddy Pimblett on fight day.

Paddy is nine years younger and the more powerful athlete. Still, Green has a better gas tank and is the superior mixed martial artist with vastly more cage experience (48 professional fights).

Paddy's success in this matchup should be frontloaded. Green is still just two fights removed from a vicious multiple-KO loss to Jalin Turner, which the referee stopped far too late. He also was wobbled early in his subsequent fight against Jim Miller at UFC 300.

Still, Green alleviated any concerns about declining speed or athleticism, racking up 319 significant strike attempts (21.2 per minute) across that fight while landing 82 of 121 significant strike attempts (67%) in Round 3 alone. Paddy, who defends strikes at 41% compared to 62% for Green, will have a heart attack if "Bobby" puts that pace on him late.

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I'd be disappointed – but not surprised – if Pimblett ices Green early, but it would make sense at their respective career stages. Even though Green has solid takedown defense (74%), Pimblett may be able to bowl him over and get on top when both fighters are fresh too. Still, Green is a more than capable defensive grappler and scrambler, and I'd expect him to eventually work his way back to his feet without absorbing much damage.

Paddy has shown that he consistently fades in the third round of his bouts – especially after extended grappling exchanges – and he was wearing down in the second half of his two most recent fights against Tony Ferguson and Jared Gordon.

I'd expect Pimblett to take an early lead, but if he doesn't finish Green, I expect the newly named King to rally consistently in the second half of the fight.

I'll wait to fire on Green until closer to fight time to see if Pimblett takes more money, but I would bet Green up to -125 (projected -135) on the moneyline and consider playing his odds to win in Round 3 (+1600) against a potentially exhausted Pimblett. Additionally, live bet Green anytime after Round 1.

The Picks: Bobby Green (-125 or better; try to wait for plus money) | Green wins in Round 3 (+1600 at DraftKings) | Green Live after Round 1

Dann Stupp: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET

This bet seems a little too easy, but if Tom Aspinall is going to win UFC 304's co-main event and defend his interim belt – and I think he will – it's probably not going to take very long.

In most situations, I would look to the Over markets for a heavyweight such as Curtis Blaydes, who has the wrestling he needs to get fights to the canvas if the standup isn't going his way.

Unfortunately for Blaydes (+310), if you try to avoid striking with Aspinall (-395), you're not going to get much of a reprieve on the mat, where he's just as dangerous with his submission skills.

This is why so many MMA hardcores (myself included) are pretty high on Aspinall. We've sat through two decades of terrible heavyweights – slow, plodding, flabby, gassed, stiff, stifled, sad, undersized, oversized – so it's hard not to get excited about a youngish (31) big man who seems to be the complete package.

Of course, I initially felt that way about Blaydes, and I'm still fairly high on the 33-year-old in a painfully old division. I just think Aspinall is a step above, and the moneyline odds reflect it.

However, I'm not interested in eating the chalk on a 4-1 moneyline play on Aspinall, especially in a division as volatile as heavyweight and with an opponent as skilled as Blaydes. And, as Dan Tom detailed in our Aspinall vs. Blaydes preview, most of Aspinall's win condition is frontloaded.

It won't be easy, and I expect a dicey moment or two, but I think Aspinall will eventually find an early KO or submission to dazzle the Manchester crowd.

As Sean Zerillo suggested in our UFC 304 odds mega preview, there's a way to get the bet option we want. I'm heading to bet365 and using the Same Game Parlay menu: Aspinall moneyline & Under 1.5 rounds, which gives us -120 odds.

The Pick: SGP – Tom Aspinall & Under 1.5 rounds (-120 at bet365)

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