Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett Odds
| Green Odds | -115 |
| Pimblett Odds | -107 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-180 / +135) |
| Location | Co-op Live in Manchester, England |
| Time | 11 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 304 odds as of Saturday evening and via BetRivers. Use our BetRivers promo code for UFC 304! | |
Check out the latest Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett odds for UFC 304 on Saturday, July 27, with our expert pick and prediction.
Saturday's UFC 304 main card features King Green (the artist formerly known as Bobby Green), the No. 15-ranked contender in the UFC bantamweight rankings, against unranked Paddy Pimblett.
The steam is on Pimblett in this matchup; he opened with +154 odds on the moneyline and is now listed at -112 at BetRivers at the time of this writing.
However, I disagree with the steam, and here is how I will be backing the favorite with a prop bet in my Green vs. Pimblett preview for UFC 304.
Tale of the Tape
| Green | Pimblett | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 32-15-1 | 21-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:23 | 9:12 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 154.5 lbs. | 156 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/9/1986 | 1/3/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.45 | 5.13 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.75 | 3.70 |
| SS Defense | 62% | 41% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.19 | 0.98 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 25% |
| TD Def | 74% | 56% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 1.6 |
Green's biggest advantage in this contest is his experience. He's been in the octagon with some absolute killers at 155 pounds, including Islam Makhachev, Jim Miller and Jalin Turner.
Pimblett is a rising prospect who is undefeated in the UFC and will earn a ranking with a win on Saturday. However, this is a massive step up in competition.
While he is 5-0 under this promotion, I would argue he really doesn't have that breakthrough performance that makes me believe he can beat someone of Green's pedigree. Pimblett's first two victories came against Luigi Vendramini and Kazula Vargas, and I will spare you the rush to Google to find out who those guys are and tell you that neither made it in the UFC.
His next win came against Jordan Leavitt, who is just 3-3 over his past six fights and does not look like someone who will ever enter the rankings. P
Pimblett then went on to beat Jared Gordon in a highly controversial decision; 23 of the 24 media scores awarded the fight to Gordon, with 11 of those being 30-27 Gordon. Like the vast majority of those who watched that fight, I also was left wondering what fight the three judges octagon-side were watching.
That just leaves Pimblett's latest win, which was another decision victory over Tony Ferguson. While I love Ferguson as much as the next MMA fan, the legend has no business still competing as he has now lost seven consecutive fights.
Green vs. Pimblett Pick
Saturday is very much a "prove-it" fight for Pimblett, and while I respect his potential, he's just done nothing for me yet in the UFC to make me think he is going to start taking down ranked guys at 155 pounds. If we are backing Green, I think the best way to do so is by backing his prop to win by decision (+195) rather than laying -122 on the moneyline.
I would argue Pimblett's greatest strength might be his chin, and as he so eloquently puts it: "I'm a Scouser. We don't get knocked out." And, to his credit, he's right. He has never been knocked out across 24 professional MMA bouts.
Pimblett's second greatest strength is probably his jiu-jitsu, and, again, he has tapped just once across those aforementioned 24 fights. His most likely game plan is to attempt to bring Green to the mat and open the door for a submission victory.
However, Green has been taken down just once over his past 10 fights, and that was against Makhachev. Sorry Paddy, but it goes without saying that he is nowhere near that level.
If this fight remains standing, then Green is going to have the advantage in the striking department. I project him to throw "punches in bunches," which will look good to the judges and ultimately be the reason he walks away with a decision victory.
The Pick: King Green by Decision (+185) | Play to +175
