Caolan Loughran vs. Jake Hadley Odds
Check out the latest Caolan Loughran vs. Jake Hadley odds for UFC 304 on Saturday, July 27, with our expert pick and prediction.
The UFC 304 prelims feature an impromptu bantamweight battle between two former Cage Warriors champions, Caolan Loughran and Jake Hadley.
Loughran, who is the natural bantamweight, was initially slated to face Ramon Tavares.
But with Tavares forced to withdraw, England's own Hadley will now be stepping in for the assignment.
Hadley is a natural flyweight who is moving up to take this fight on short notice, which makes things extra interesting considering that the Englishman is also riding a two-fight losing skid.
Tale of the Tape
| Loughran | Hadley | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-3 | 9-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:19 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 68" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/3/1996 | 5/18/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.36 | 6.27 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.56 | 5.73 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.24 | 2.50 |
| TD Acc | 6% | 33% |
| TD Def | 35% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 1.7 | 0.0 |
Both men are inherent pressure fighters at heart, but they apply their games with different focuses in mind.
Moving like the little tank that he is, Loughran likes to come forward with steady doses of prods to help draw out opportunities for his offense.
Whether Loughran's looking to parry jabs and return or lining kicks and crosses from his power side, the former footballer appears dedicated when it comes to closing the distance. Once in closed quarters, he tends to get right to work with clinch offense that ranges from short shots to takedowns.
When operating on the floor, Loughran has a criteria-friendly style fueled by positional dominance and ground strikes.
Loughran also has a knack for taking backs when they become available, but he'll need to be careful when scrambling with someone like Hadley.
An opportunistic finisher by nature, Hadley will – for better or worse – gladly accept takedowns if it means he has a chance to submit you. From front chokes to high-guard attacks, few positions aren't comfortable for Hadley to operate from.
And when Hadley is on the feet, the 27-year-old works with a unique southpaw guard and doesn't discriminate when it comes to going to the body.
Given that Loughran struggled with southpaw Taylor Lapilus in his UFC debut, Hadley can at least, on paper, present some potential problems for the Irishman in striking stanzas.
Loughran vs. Hadley Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the Irish fighter, listing Loughran -225 and Hadley+175 as of this writing.
With Hadley moving up on short notice and still missing weight on the scales, I can see why money is trickling in on Loughran.
That said, I do still feel like Hadley presents some potential pitfalls we need to watch out for from a stylistic perspective.
Aside from the opportunistic submissions that Loughran's pressuring style could steer him into, I didn't like how the Irishman looked on tape opposite a southpaw striker. Three rounds with Lapilus may not be the largest sample size in the world, but there was a clear difference in Loughran's striking game and flow when faced with an open-stance affair – and it wasn't for the better.
Nevertheless, it's ultimately hard to ignore the fact that fighters who can hang with Hadley on the ground have been able to secure rounds against him through grinding top pressure (which is something Loughran is capable of).
So long as Loughran can avoid a surprising submission, then I suspect that he'll be able to grind his way to scorecards for a win in enemy territory.
If Loughran didn't look so shakey against southpaws and if Hadley weren't so hard to finish, then I'd say grab "Loughran by TKO or Hadley by submission" combo props all day.
But between this being heavily favored to go over and Hadley looking worse for wear at weigh-ins, I believe that Loughran to win by decision (or him as a parlay piece) is the way to go.
The Pick: Caolan Loughran by decision (+104 at BetRivers)
