UFC 304 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues: Tough Fight for Local Prospect (Saturday, July 27)

Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues Odds

Check out the latest Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues odds for UFC 304 on Saturday, July 27, with our expert pick and prediction.

You have to respect the courage and confidence – but maybe not the wisdom – from Christian Leroy Duncan. He was originally given a bout against Robert Bryczek, a 0-1 UFC middleweight with an ideal style for "CLD." A Bryczek injury derailed that plan.

Instead, he gets elite grappler Gregory Rodrigues, who is 6-2 in the UFC with five finishes – and holds a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and plenty of national-level grappling accomplishments.

The British Duncan is still a slight favorite on home soil, but this is certainly a tougher fight. Did he make the right call in accepting the tougher opponent? We'll find out on Saturday.

Let's dig into the Duncan vs. Rodrigues breakdown.

Tale of the Tape

Two things can be true at the same time; Christian Leroy Duncan is pretty good, and the UFC has largely been protecting him with favorable matchups. That's part of why I mentioned the opponent shift in the intro. The original plan was certainly intended to continue to build up a potential British star.

CLD is 3-1 for the promotion, but even his loss came against a stylistically beatable opponent. The former basketball player is an exciting, dynamic striker, but he's yet to show any evidence of grappling ability. The fast-twitch nature of a basketball player and his long limbs lend themselves better to striking as well.

When he gets into a rhythm on the feet, Duncan has some of the prettiest striking in the UFC. He effortlessly switches stances while pumping his jab, and if opponents step out of his (long) range, he'll launch spinning and leaping attacks. He's capable of picking apart opponents with his range and kicking game, though he struggles a bit against opponents with the technical knowledge to penetrate his guard.

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We saw that from Armen Petrosyan, who out-struck CLD 89-59 in their bout while holding Duncan to just a 48% accuracy rate – well down from his 62% overall mark. Petrosyan is a former international-level kickboxer, so that makes sense – but he also landed his first-ever UFC takedown on Duncan.

Which is what makes the matchup against Rodrigues so difficult. "Robocop" certainly won't be looking for his first UFC takedown against Duncan; he averages about 2.5 per 15 minutes of cage time.

Along with his BJJ credentials, Rodirgues also competed in amateur wrestling at a national level in his native Brazil, which gives him a leg up over many of his fellow jiu-jitsu converts.

He also has shown greatly improved striking in recent fights – or at least an ability to use the threat of takedowns to set up his striking game. We saw that in his last outing against Brad Tavares, who's famously difficult to take down (and finish). G-Rod was losing the second round on the feet until he timed a Tavares kick into a takedown. When they came back out for the third round, he used level changes to back up Tavares before unloading with powerful strikes and picking up a TKO.

He could implement a similar plan against CLD, though he'd probably be better served just trying to grapple. The biggest knock on Rodrigues is his chin, with three knockout losses on his record – and the other two defeats coming from split decision.

Rodrigues is willing to brawl – perhaps too willing – and Duncan has big power. That gives both men clear finishing upside here, and it explains the low round total of 1.5 rounds.

Duncan vs. Rodrigues Pick

While I'm worried about the power coming back from Duncan and the short-notice nature for Rodrigues, I have to side with the underdog here. While some of that is probably my personal bias to grapplers over strikers, there are a lot of factors at play.

While CLD's stopping power has been impressive, this is a massive step up in competition. The three fighters he's beaten in the UFC are a combined 4-11 in the promotion with three of those wins coming from Dusko Todorovic, who injured his knee in his fight against Duncan.

Rodrigues also isn't drawing totally dead in standup exchanges. His power is, at worst, equal to Duncan's, and his use of the calf kick should limit Duncan's stance-switching and movement. Especially if Duncan is guarding against takedowns, Rodrigues should be able to find a home for some of his own strikes.

I'd still prefer that this one hits the canvas as soon as possible, given the huge edge Rodrigues has in that department. I'm not willing to lay juice betting on what a fighter should do, but at plus money, it's a chance I'm willing to take.

The Pick: Gregory Rodrigues (+122 at Caesars)

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