Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad Odds
| 11:59 p.m. ET | |
Check out the latest Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad odds for UFC 304 on Saturday, July 27, with our expert pick and prediction.
The UFC will return to England this weekend for UFC 304, which will feature a pair of title bouts, including a main event and rematch between current welterweight champion Leon Edwards and No. 2-ranked UFC contender Belal Muhammad.
The pair first squared off at the UFC Apex in March 2021 with Muhammad stepping in on short notice instead of Khamzat Chimaev. The fight ended in no-contest in the first round after an eye-poke from Edwards left Muhammad unable to continue.
Edwards won his next four fights – claiming welterweight gold against Kamaru Usman and defending the strap against Usman and Colby Covington –extending his unbeaten streak to 13 fights.
Belal is 5-0 since their first encounter and enters Saturday on a 10-fight unbeaten streak, hoping to become the second-oldest welterweight champion in UFC history (Tyron Woodley at 36 years, 144 days).
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the 304 main event and utilize those factors to bet on Edwards and Muhammad, who should make their cage walks at approximately 11:55 p.m. ET on Saturday night on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
Tale of the Tape
| Edwards | Muhammad | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-3 | 23-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 16:55 | 14:19 |
| Height | 6'2" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 169 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 72" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/25/1991 | 7/9/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.75 | 4.55 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 43% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.34 | 3.64 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.25 | 1.98 |
| TD Acc | 34% | 35% |
| TD Def | 70% | 93% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Edwards is the bigger and stronger athlete (3" taller, 2" reach advantage) and showed little respect for Muhammad's power in the first matchup.
Edwards typically fights conservatively, stays at kickboxing range, and often fails to separate from his opposition on strike volume. Belal throws more output, landing 5.3 strikes per minute at distance (+0.8 differential) compared to 3.7 for Edwards (+0.7).
However, he was far more aggressive in five minutes against Muhammad than we're typically accustomed to seeing, pressing his opponent and putting him on the back foot, where Muhammad's game is much less effective.
I bet the first fight to go the distance, but I didn't like the pace that Edwards set at the outset. It seemed like Muhammad was overwhelmed from the opening bell – potentially unprepared on short notice – and that he may get finished eventually had the fight extended, and Edwards continued to pressure.
Typically, Muhammad prefers to be the one pressuring opponents and backing them up against the cage, where he can alternate between strikes and clinch positions or takedown attempts. Instead, Edwards made Muhammad as uncomfortable as possible – by initiating his own pressure. Edwards hurt Belal with a head kick in the opening round and consistently backed him into a corner and unloaded combinations.
I have typically been higher on Muhammad than the betting market; he's a well-rounded martial artist with high fight IQ, typically exploiting opponents wherever he has the advantage. In recent matchups, he proved the better striker against Gilbert Burns and Sean Brady and the better wrestler against Stephen Thompson, Vicente Luque and Demian Maia.
Still, the only advantages I'd give Muhammad against Edwards are offense wrestling and cardio; otherwise, he's covered skill for skill. And even if Muhammad does land and consolidates takedowns in the early rounds, Leon should be able to scramble back to his feet, win the hand-fighting in the clinch, and fire knees-end elbows when he's chest to chest with his opponent. Edwards consistently fires strikes as opponents attempt to grapple him, leaving Muhammad with minimal margin to cling onto his legs and work on extended takedown attempts.
If the challenger has success, he should find his moments in the championship rounds as Edwards potentially tires. The champion secured his belt with a come-from-behind, fifth-round knockout win against Usman – but has shown down the stretch in other fights, getting rocked by Nate Diaz late and outwrestled by Covington in the final frame of their respective fights.
Belal needs to force a high-paced affair in which he's consistently making Edwards work to defend takedowns (averages 2.6 per 5 minutes) or get up off of his back to tire out the champion down the stretch.
Otherwise, Edwards should have a severe striking advantage when both men are fresh, and he should land the noticeably more damaging blows to gain deference from the judges.
Edwards vs. Muhammad Pick
I projected Leon Edwards as a -266 favorite (72.7% implied) in this fight and would typically look for -242 (70.7% implied) or better as a price target to wager on the champion.
Considering his success should be frontloaded – and expect the live odds to tick in his direction after banking early rounds – I'm comfortable laying up to -260 on Edwards pre-fight, either as a straight moneyline bet or a parlay piece.
I might prefer Edwards on the finish-only moneyline, where your bet grades only if either fighter wins inside the distance.
I expect this fight to reach a decision 65.5% of the time (-190 implied) but would put Edwards at 29.1% (+243) to finish compared to 5.4% (+1752) for Muhammad.
You can consider betting Edwards by KO/TKO (projected +293, listed +300) or inside the distance (projected +240, listed +250). Still, I'd set the fair odds on a finish-only moneyline at around 85% or -568 for Edwards, compared to listed odds of -265, much more closely aligned with his moneyline price.
The Pick: Leon Edwards (-250 at DraftKings) | Edwards – Finsh Only Moneyline (-265 at DraftKings)
