Mick Parkin vs. Lukasz Brzeski Odds
| Parkin Odds | -475 |
| Brzeski Odds | +345 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-185 / +145) |
| Location | Co-op Live in Manchester, England |
| Time | 6:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| UFC 304 odds as of Saturday and via ESPN BET. Bet on the UFC with our ESPN BET promo code. | |
Check out the latest Mick Parkin vs. Lukasz Brzeski odds for UFC 304 on Saturday, July 27, with our expert pick and prediction.
Saturday's UFC 304 early prelims feature unranked heavyweights Mick Parkin and Lukasz Brzeski.
The steam is heavily on Parkin in this matchup; he opened with -215 odds on the moneyline and is now listed at -370 at ESPN BET at the time of this writing.
I agree with the steam, and here is how I will be backing the favorite with a prop bet in my Parkin vs. Brzeski preview for UFC 304.
Tale of the Tape
| Parkin | Brzeski | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-0 | 9-4-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:44 | 12:22 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 265 lbs. | 236 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 79" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/2/1995 | 5/17/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.54 | 4.78 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.94 | 3.15 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.60 | 0.48 |
| TD Acc | 41% | 50% |
| TD Def | 50% | 36% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.5 |
As suggested by the odds, this fight is a sizable mismatch. Mick Parkin brings a spotless 9-0 professional record into this bout while Brzeski returns with a 9-4-1 (1 NC) record.
Brzeski is even worse than that record suggests, and I am skeptical of how long he will remain in the UFC. He earned a contract after submitting Dylan Potter during a Dana White's Contender Series event in 2021.
It is also important to note that Potter currently possesses a 10-7 professional record.
Brzeski went on to lose his next three fights before finally returning to the win column with a decision victory over Valter Walker. However, that was a controversial victory; seven of the 12 media scores awarded the fight to Walker.
He probably doesn't earn this fight (or another one in the promotion at that) if it weren't for a fight he most likely lost, and now Brzeski is being fed to the wolves against the undefeated Parkin. With another dominating performance, Parkin probably gets a shot at someone with a ranking after he blows past Brzeski.
Parkin vs. Brzeski Pick
The question to ask with this fight is not "Do we back Parkin?" but rather, "How do we back Parkin?" Oddsmakers are expecting this fight to go the distance given that it is priced at -160 to do so.
Subsequently, Parkin's method of victory odds at one major sportsbook are as follows:
- KO/TKO (+360)
- Submission (+700)
- Decision (+120)
It makes sense that Parkin by decision is the most likely outcome, and, at plus money, that is how we will back the heavy favorite. Parkin is a striker, but he's not particularly athletic or overtly powerful.
Therefore, I am not too concerned with the upside of his finishing ability, even against a guy like Brzeski. At the same time, three of Brzeski's past four fights have gone to decision.
I project this fight to go similarly to Parkin's latest win over Mohammed Usman, a bout that remained completely on the feet while Parkin picked him apart in the striking department over the final two rounds. Parkin is just a far superior fighter than Brzeski, but I think there will be enough inactivity to when Brzeski can survive to the judges' scorecards once again.
The Pick: Mick Parkin by Decision (+120 | Play to +115)
