Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil Odds
Check out the latest Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil odds for UFC 304 on Saturday, July 27, with our expert pick and prediction.
"Meatball" Molly McCann, coming off a much-needed Performance of the Night victory, is one of the heavier favorites competing at UFC 304.
And the hope for her is that McCann (14-6, 6 KOs, 1 SUB), now a strawweight, is in her proper weight class. Perhaps the move from 125 pounds to 115 will provide a late-career surge for the Liverpool native, who had been a flyweight nearly her entire MMA career.
On the other side of the octagon will be a desperate Bruna Brasil (9-4-1, 3 KOs, 2 SUB).
McCann had the desperation heading into her most recent bout, and now she has the rejuvenated hunger to win again on Saturday – but Brasil, straight up, could be at the end of the line in the UFC with another loss.
More on that as we set the stage for the preliminary bout.
Tale of the Tape
| McCann | Brasil | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-6 | 9-4-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:17 | 11:49 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 115 lbs. | 115 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 62" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/4/1990 | 9/7/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.79 | 2.94 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 62% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.94 | 3.92 |
| SS Defense | 63% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.82 | 1.59 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 62% |
| TD Def | 43% | 53% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.0 |
Brasil is 1-2 in the UFC since making her debut with the promotion in April 2023 after scoring a head-kick KO at a Dana White's Contender Series event.
Brasil was stopped by Denise Gomes in her UFC entry, she beat Shauna Bannon by unanimous decision last July, but then she lost a unanimous decision to Loma Lookboonmee in February.
Brasil can't afford a 1-3 run, and she's in a brutal matchup against the much more experienced McCann, who looked great in her 115-pound welcome.
McCann's recent bonus-winning victory came against Diana Belbita, whose arm she destroyed with an armbar right at the end of Round 1 during their February bout.
It came after back-to-back losses for McCann against Julija Stoliarenko and Erin Blanchfield, both by submission. McCann was a -220 favorite in the former and a +300 'dog in the latter.
Brasil, at 5-foot-6 with a nearly 66-inch reach, will have the physical advantages here. Plus, she's three-plus years younger than McCann, who turned 34 in May. Brasil will be 31 in September.
McCann vs. Brasil Pick
McCann's implied odds here are heavily in her favor, and it's hard to convincingly build the case for her to lose.
She looked dominant in the one round we saw her compete in at strawweight, and while it's small size, we have more of a sample size that suggests Brasil just isn't better or a more complete combatant. Assuming McCann has another good weight cut, I think she wins this here.
As much as method of victory has better payouts, and a submission may not be likely, I'm going point spread here. McCann -3.5 on DraftKings is -160.
(As a reminder, when betting on the MMA point spread, you add up all of the final scorecards to get the total. If Fighter A wins 29-28 on all three scorecards, he wins 87-84 overall. Therefore, a -3.5 bet would be a loser. However, if the fighter wins 30-27 on just one scorecard, the total score would be 88-83, so the -3.5 bet would be a winner. And if Fighter A gets a KO or submission, the bet is an automatic winner.)
The double chance (KO or decision) for McCann is -220, but the point spread will do. Because if this goes to the cards, I'd bet McCann gets at least one 30-27, and if she stops this early, that'll work, too.
Enjoy the fight and don't go broke!
The Pick: Molly McCann -3.5 point spread (-160 at DraftKings)
