Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda Odds
Check out the latest Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda odds for UFC 304 on Saturday, July 27, with our expert pick and prediction.
UFC 304 is fortunately filled with fairly even matchmaking without too many massive favorites on the card. One exception to that rule is the featherweight bout between Englishman Nathaniel Wood and American Daniel Pineda, which was clearly put together as a treat for the English crowd.
Wood is 3-1 since moving up from the 135-pound bantamweight division to become a 145-pound featherweight. His only loss came under extenuating circumstances that we'll discuss shortly.
Pineda, meanwhile, is 39 with one win in the past four years.
If we look hard enough, we might just be able to find a playable bet or two here, though, so let's dig in.
Tale of the Tape
| Wood | Pineda | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-6 | 28-15 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:57 | 8:35 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 146 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/8/1993 | 8/6/1985 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.91 | 3.09 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.22 | 3.18 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 46% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.74 | 1.71 |
| TD Acc | 48% | 25% |
| TD Def | 70% | 48% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 1.7 |
Nathaniel Wood is a fairly undersized featherweight, but he's managed to find more success in his new division. Standing just 5-foot-6 and not exceptionally bulky, Wood has overcome strength disparities with speed and perhaps fresher legs due to the lack of a strenuous weight cut.
Wood's lone loss in the division came in his last appearance, against Muhammad Naimov at UFC 294. Naimov won 29-28 on all three judges' scorecards – but got away with two groin shots, a fence grab that prevented a takedown, and a glove grab that may have saved him from a late finish.
The point is, I don't want to discount Wood too much based on the box score. Naimov certainly should've lost at least one point, and probably two for his repeated fouls.
Wood's a solid all-around fighter with an exceptionally high work rate. Averaging nearly six significant strikes per minute to go with a bit under two takedowns per 15, he's able to outpace his opponents frequently, which leads to him pulling away late. Even with the adversity faced in the Naimov fight, he still ended the fight in dominant position and may have picked up a TKO with 15 or so more seconds to work.
While his power doesn't play exceptionally well in his new weight class, he manages to wobble opponents at times on the feet. Wood's best attribute (outside of cardio and pace) is his grappling. He earned his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt earlier this year after defeating Alex Caceres in a professional grappling event.
More importantly, he adapts his BJJ well to MMA, looking for strikes from top position over low-percentage submission attempts. That should come into play against Pineda, who has a 48% takedown defense in the UFC.
It's the second UFC stint for Pineda, who debuted for the promotion in 2012 before spending time in Bellator and the PFL. His PFL run was marred by a positive drug test that overturned the results of two first-round wins (in the same night!) at a 2019 event.
Overall he's 5-6 for the promotion, but notably all of his wins have come inside the distance. In fact, they've all come within the first two rounds. None of his 28 professional wins has been via decision.
He's clearly a more powerful puncher than Wood, with a fairly low-volume style that prioritizes big moments over consistent damage. That partially explains his lack of success with the judges, with questionable cardio explaining the other portion.
He's also a BJJ black belt with some low-level amateur wrestling experience. He prefers to stand and strike, but he will look to "club and sub" wounded opponents much of the time.
Wood vs. Pineda Pick
I mentioned above that all of Pineda's wins have come inside of the first two rounds for a reason. It creates a perfect setup for late (or live) bets on Wood, with the option to cover your bases with early props on Pineda.
Pineda's age probably doesn't do his cardio any favors, nor does his size relative to Wood. However, the size does make him dangerous in the early goings, so I'd understand the impulse to hedge Wood late props with Pineda early.
I'm not going that way myself, though. Wood is a massive favorite for a reason, and I expect him to get through the early minutes of this fight with his footwork and wrestling.
You can adjust the minutes or rounds on the DraftKings same game parlay feature to your comfort level with this one – or get greedy and take Wood by decision at +200 or so odds.
My personal choice is to take Wood and Over 8.5 minutes – so essentially decision or third-round finish – at +130 odds.
Live betting is also a solid option, though. With the heavy moneyline price on Wood, we might need two losing rounds before he'd approach the line available with this SGP.
The Pick: SGP – Nathaniel Wood & Over 8.5 Minutes (+130 at DraftKings)
