UFC 304 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons: Bet on Underdog ‘Welsh Gangster’ (Saturday, July 27)

Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons Odds

Check out the latest Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons odds for UFC 304 on Saturday, July 27, with our expert pick and prediction.

Oban Elliott is riding a six-fight winning streak heading into his second UFC appearance. "The Welsh Gangster" should be a crowd favorite in Manchester as he takes on American fighter Preston Parsons.

The UFC clearly views Elliott as the "A side" in this matchup, and matchmakers typically try to put U.K. fighters in favorable positions when they hold events there.

Betting markets disagree, though, with Parsons as a slight favorite.  Did the matchmakers get this one wrong, or is there an upset in the cards on the UFC 304 prelims?

Tale of the Tape

The aptly nicknamed "Pressure" Parsons is making his fifth UFC appearance at UFC 304. He has a 2-2 record across his previous four showings. He was last seen in January when he gutted out a tough decision over Matthew Semelsberger in which Parsons landed seven takedowns throughout the bout.

Parsons is known for his grappling, and he has nine submission victories in his 11 professional wins. It's notable that he finished all of his wins prior to joining the UFC, though, as he fought relatively low-level opposition.

Parsons has no formal wrestling background, but his rate of 4.3 takedowns per 15 minutes is well-earned. The fact that his rate is so high despite a 43% accuracy rate points to his true best ability: constant forward pressure.

Parsons isn't especially fast or crisp on the feet, but he continuously plods forward in search of takedowns. Most of his damage comes on the ground, but there isn't much to speak of: He's never finished a fight by (T)KO as a pro.

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That's partially due to his inability to maintain dominant position against UFC-level competition. Parson's desire to look for submissions frequently leads to him sacrificing potentially advantageous spots while his jiu-jitsu isn't quite strong enough to reliably submit high-level opponents. Still, most of the time that leads to him winning rounds; he's more than capable of picking up a second (or third, or fourth) takedown if his opponent escapes.

Parsons also has solid cardio for somebody who wrestles as much as he does, though we could see his staying power take a hit if he's challenged more on the feet. He's clearly more comfortable on the ground, and he will likely fade faster during extended striking exchanges.

All of which makes this an interesting matchup with Elliot. The former Cage Warriors No. 1 contender is certainly the crisper striker in this matchup. While he lists himself as an orthodox fighter, he spends plenty of time in a southpaw stance, where he mixes in kicks from the rear side with straight lefts.

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That's an interesting dynamic against Parsons, who suffered a knockout loss against the only dedicated lefty he fought in the UFC (Daniel Rodriguez).

However, Elliott has a tendency to get overwhelmed by more explosive fighters, getting nearly finished in both his Contender Series appearance and his UFC debut. Both of those came when Elliott seemed to believe he hurt his opponent, getting greedy and rushing in prematurely.

That could be written off as nerves given the circumstances of those fights, or it could be a symptom of poor IQ.

Elliott also wrestles extremely well, and he does a better job doing damage from top position than Parsons. It would probably be in his best interests to avoid grappling with the brown belt – but habits are hard to break.

Elliott vs. Parsons Pick

Fortunately for Elliot, his typical Achilles' heel of explosive striking probably won't be at play here. Parsons uses his strikes to set up his takedowns with little ability or interest to win fights on the feet.

Unfortunately for Elliot, it's not a stretch to see this one turn into a grappling match. I don't think he'd be drawing completely dead in that scenario, but it wouldn't be to his favor either.

I see the first round being somewhat tricky for Elliot; he'll give up some takedowns once he gets into a striking rhythm and overextends looking for a finish in front of an excited crowd. However, if he survives the initial grappling exchanges, he should be able to win the later rounds – or at least do enough to convince the judges and fans he did.

It's also worth noting just one of Parsons' finishes came after the first round. That's fairly typical with grapplers; the combination of sweaty bodies and tired arms makes finishing subs harder.

For those reasons, Elliott could be a solid late or live bet here. However, at plus money, I'm willing to roll the dice prefight. Elliott has the tools to get this done with a proper game plan, and I'm willing to bet he brings one.

Still, consider keeping a few dollars in reserve for a live bet after Round 1, when the odds will be much better if the fight goes how I anticipate.

The Pick: Oban Elliott (+120 at DraftKings)

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