Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes Odds
Check out the latest Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes odds for UFC 304 on Saturday, July 27, with our expert pick and prediction.
The UFC 304 co-main event features a rematch for the interim heavyweight title with Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes.
These two initially crossed paths back in the summer of 2022, but the fight was cut abruptly short in the opening minute due to a leg injury on the side of Aspinall.
The Englishman was able to make a full recovery by bouncing back with two emphatic knockout wins en route to capturing a UFC belt.
Blaydes ended up dropping a fight to Sergei Pavlovich after fighting Aspinall the first time around, but he's since bounced back with a stoppage win over Jailton Almeida.
Tale of the Tape
| Aspinall | Blaydes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-3 | 18-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 2:10 | 9:02 |
| Height | 6'5" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 251 lbs. | 256 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 80" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/11/1993 | 2/18/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 7.72 | 3.53 |
| SS Accuracy | 66% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.77 | 1.83 |
| SS Defense | 66% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.46 | 5.72 |
| TD Acc | 100% | 53% |
| TD Def | 100% | 31% |
| Submission Avg | 1.7 | 0.0 |
Despite Aspinall and Blaydes coming from grappling bases, both men have made clear strides in their striking since entering the UFC.
A deceptive stance shifter who can competently strike from both sides, Blaydes has been steadily improving his game on the feet from fight to fight.
Although Blaydes still shows the ability to string combinations together when coming forward, the Chicago native appears to be developing a feel for counter-striking. Not only was Blaydes able to hit some counters in the opening stanza against Aspinall in their first fight, but he was also able to put Almedia away with a well-placed counter in his most recent appearance in the octagon.
That said, striking with Aspinall may not be the smartest approach, so don't be shocked if Blaydes reverts to his wrestling roots for this assignment.
Aside from being one of the few fighters who can competently wrestle in this division, Blaydes wields some incredibly vicious ground and pound when he puts his mind to it.
However, grappling with Aspinall is a tricky proposition considering that he, too, is one of the weight class' most skilled grapplers.
A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who was indoctrinated into the grappling arts at a young age (thanks to his black belt father), Aspinall knows his way around the mat, to say the least.
Whether Aspinall is transitioning off takedowns or opportunistically taking a choke that becomes available, the Wigan native operates with the agility of the lightweight. Thankfully for Aspinall, his deceptive speed and athleticism don't take away from the fact that he still hits like a heavyweight should.
A natural striker who shows comfort at multiple ranges, Aspinall is good about mixing in the art of eight limbs. From knee and elbow changeups in close to crushing punches down the pike, Aspinall can pretty much do it all.
Aspinall vs. Blaydes Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the interim champion, listing Aspinall -400 and Blaydes +310 as of this writing.
Despite not disagreeing with who is favored, I can't help but suspiciously stare at any heavyweight MMA line with north of a 3-1 spread.
Aside from the sheer volatility at heavyweight, underrated wrestlers have traditionally been key ingredients when looking at hype-train busts from the past. Still, I'm not sure how much I can count on Blaydes to wrestle considering his inconsistency in that field when it comes to both defense and offense.
From his lack of takedowns opposite fighters like Pavlovich to his questionable defensive instincts against Almeida, Blaydes has become difficult to trust from a game plan perspective.
For that reason, I'll be sticking with my pick from their first fight and will be going with Aspinall to win by first-round submission.
Although I'll be putting "Aspinall by submission" in a round-robin, I don't blame you for not being on what seems like the least likely outcome for the Englishman.
I also don't fault you for feeling priced out of Aspinall's moneyline or inside-the-distance props given the inflation.
That said, I believe that the "Under 1.5 rounds" at -170 via Caesars and other sportsbooks is well worth consideration at that current price tag.
I'd play it straight at anything under -175 and would parlay it if listed higher than that.
The Pick: Aspinall vs. Blayders Under 1.5 rounds (-170 at Caesars)
