Check out our early UFC predictions for UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 this Saturday, July 27, with our Luck Ratings.
UFC 304 takes place this weekend at Co-op Live in Manchester, England. Following the preliminary card on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) and ESPN2 (8 p.m. ET), the pay-per-view main card is available on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET (cost: $69.99).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or in which one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 304 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 304 with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 304 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Leon Edwards (-245) vs. Belal Muhammad (+200)
Belal Muhammad is finally getting his long overdue title shot at UFC 304. Since dropping a decision to Geoff Neal in 2019, Muhammad has won nine straight fights with one no-contest.
It was a memorable no-contest: It came against current champion Leon Edwards. After taking a mostly uneventful first round, Edwards caught Muhammad with an eye poke in the second, leading to the premature end of that fight.
The UFC effectively treated that as a win for Edwards. Two fights later, officials gave him a title shot, which he won in spectacular fashion, a Hail Mary head-kick knockout in the fifth round against Kamaru Usman. Edwards has since defended the title twice with a convincing win over Usman plus a boring decision against an undeserving Colby Covington.
This fight should be closer than the Covington bout, but Edwards is the rightful favorite. He looked good in a small sample size against Muhammad the first time, and he's younger and more athletic than the challenger.
I'm not sure he should be this big of a favorite, though. The line continues to slide toward Edwards – with some +200s appearing on Muhammad as of Monday afternoon. I'm not betting it yet – I'm likely waiting for the "point spread" on Muhammad to become available – but if it goes much further, I might jump on the moneyline as well.
Verdict: Belal Muhammad slightly undervalued (wait for a better line)
Tom Aspinall (-375) vs. Curtis Blaydes (+300)
Both title fights on the UFC 304 card are rematches with the original fights both ending in unusual circumstances.
Curtis Blaydes technically won his first meeting with fellow heavyweight Tom Aspinall. However, it was the result of a knee injury to Aspinall 15 seconds into the bout. That obviously doesn't give us many hints as to how this one will play out.
On the other hand, it makes perfect sense that the interim champion is the prohibitive favorite here. Aspinall won the title with a 69-second knockout of Sergei Pavlovich – the same Pavlovich who finished Blaydes in the first round in his prior fight.
The one edge Blaydes has in this matchup is his wrestling. I don't see him putting the Brit in much danger with it, but he could control stretches of this fight from top position while Aspinall survives on the bottom.
Aspinall is the better striker and submission artist, giving him far more ways to win, especially in a division where we don't see many five-round decisions.
I'll be interested in Blaydes' "decision only" props when they're available since odds are pretty good that if this fight goes all 25 minutes, Blaydes will face controlled most of that time from the top. The moneyline is about right, though, so I'll be passing on that one unless we see major movement in one direction.
Verdict: Moneyline fairly valued
Bobby King Green (-118) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-102)
You could make a case for either fighter in this matchup with the usual "luck" criteria I use.
The newly minted King Green (formerly Bobby King) is 3-1 in his last four fights. Two of those wins came against well-past-their-prime fighters in Jim Miller and Tony Ferguson, with Miller winning the first round (and one judge seeing the first round of the Ferguson contest for Ferguson). His other win was a flash knockout of Grant Dawson – which, while not exactly lucky, was certainly fluky.
Prior to that, he suffered knockouts to high-level opponents Drew Dober and Islam Makhachev – plus an accidental clash of heads in a fight with Jared Gordon that led to a no-contest. Green was probably winning the fight at that point, but it was extremely close.
On the other hand, Pimblett is coming off his own win over Tony Ferguson plus a gift decision over Gordon that nearly every media member saw going the other way.
Besides the pricing, what pushes me toward Pimblett is the age and mileage factor. Green is 37 with three (T)KO losses in the past 2.5 years. Pimblett is just 29, and he seems to (finally) be taking his strength and conditioning seriously for this matchup.
After Pimblett opened as high as +160, tons of money has came in on the hometown fighter. I bet him at +105 odds on Caesars Sportsbook on Monday. As of Tuesday, you can get those same odds at DraftKings, but jump on that line before all the plus-money is gone.
Verdict: Paddy Pimblett undervalued
Christian Leroy Duncan (-142) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (+120)
Christian Leroy Duncan was originally slated to fight Robert Bryczek at UFC 304, but an injury to the Polish fighter forced a shuffle up. "CLD" is getting a much worse matchup out of the deal and now takes on Gregory Rodrigues, who's 6-2 in the UFC.
Duncan is 3-1 for the promotion, but he's been given an extremely easy path with the UFC trying to build British stars. The three opponents he's defeated are a combined 5-11 in the UFC with none having a winning record.
Primarily a striker, he was beaten at his own game by Armen Petrosyan, who outstruck him 87-58 en route to a unanimous decision victory. Petrosyan even threw in a takedown for good measure despite being a kickboxer who converted to MMA.
That's the same Armen Petrosyan who needed a questionable split decision to beat Rodrigues with "Robocop" landing two takedowns in that fight.
Duncan's power is legit, though, and Rodrigues can be chinny at times. However, the Brazilian has a massive grappling edge should he choose to use it – not always a guarantee – and big power of his own.
For that reason, I'll take Rodrigues at plus money. The line has swung both directions at various points, so you might get a better line later, but I'm happy with the current odds at DraftKings.
Verdict: Gregory Rodrigues undervalued
