UFC 304 Props: Long Shot Picks and Predictions from MMA Prop Squad (Saturday, July 27)

Check out our UFC props for UFC 304 with our favorite long-shot prop bets for Saturday, July 27.

UFC 304 takes place tonight at Co-op Live Manchester, England. Following prelims on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) and ESPN2 (8 p.m.), the main card is on ESPN PPV+ at 10 p.m. ET.

With 14 fights, UFC 304 prop opportunities are plentiful, and the MMA Prop Squad has found a handful they like for tonight's British card.

Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +15.3 units and a +3.6% ROI per bet to date.

As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.

UFC 304 odds for matchups as Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 304 with our DraftKings promo code!

UFC 304 Props – MMA Prop Squad Predictions

Tony Sartori: Juicy Submission Bet for Flyweights

Contributor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET

Saturday's UFC early prelims feature a flyweight bout between No. 6-ranked UFC contender Muhammad Mokaev (-185) and No. 8 Manel Kape (+154). The steam is heavily on Mokaev, who opened at +108 and has since been bet up to his current price.

I agree with the steam and believe that Mokaev is the superior fighter. The 23-year-old brings in a spotless 12-0 (1 NC) professional record.

He came into the UFC with some mighty expectations, and he has exceeded them already. Mokaev is 6-0 in this promotion with four of those six wins coming by submission.

Mokaev already has beaten some solid names in Charles Johnson, Jafel Filho and Alex Perez. Kape will be his toughest test to date, but the guy is certainly beatable.

Kape is 8-5 over his past 13 fights, and he has also proven to be submittable; he lost by head and arm choke during that stretch. To me, there are two ways to back the betting favorite if you want to avoid laying the chalk on the moneyline.

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You can bet him to win by submission, which offers a generous payout of +460, or you can bet on Mokaev by decision, which pays out +135. I think there is far more value in that +450 line, especially when you consider that his entire game plan is routed in the ground game.

Finally, Mokaev is extra motivated to hunt for a finish. His contract is up after this fight, and he wants to get a large pay increase. And, as we all know, Dana White and company reward those who finish fights as opposed to those who rely on decision victories.

Mokaev told UFC.com: "I'm coming for another finish. I have four finishes out of six fights, and I need a fifth finish."

As noted above, all four of those finishes came by submission.

The Pick: Muhammad Mokaev by submission (+440 at BetRivers)

Clint MacLean: Worst-Case Scenario for Prachnio

Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET

Marcin Prachnio has been doing just enough to keep his UFC roster spot. The 36-year-old is a fragile kickboxer is beating only the absolute bottom of the barrel in the UFC.

Except for that one time he managed to beat Khalil Rountree Jr.

Prachnio (+130) has never beaten a UFC fighter who has had a reach advantage over him, and on Saturday, he faces Modestas Bukauskas (-155), who will enjoy a four-inch reach advantage and fights extremely well moving backward.

This is a worst-case scenario matchup for Prachnio – and one that has led him to be knocked out four times in the UFC octagon.

Bukauskas should be able to set up counters and head kicks using Prachnio's forward pressure against him. I'm betting he'll get the stoppage before the light-heavyweight bout ends.

The Pick: Modestas Bukauskas KO/TKO (+340)

Dan Tom: Hometown Spoiler Role for King

Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET

For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target a main-card attraction between Bobby Green (-115) and Paddy Pimblett (-105).

Despite already being heavily on "King" Green's moneyline due to the discount we're getting from Pimblett's popularity, I believe that this is the prop to target as far as method goes.

This fight is technically favored to go the distance, but I suspect that Green understands the danger in going to the scorecards in England opposite a fighter like Pimblett (who has a history of receiving favorable decisions dating back to his days on the Cage Warriors circuit).

Pimblett, to his credit, has shown some decent durability given the number of shots we've seen him take due to porous defense alone.

That said, Green is an undeniable step up for Pimblett – and that includes his last outing opposite the ghost of Tony Ferguson.

Although Green winning a decision is more than possible, I can't help but salivate over the skills disparity in what is the fade spot many of us have been patiently waiting for.

Add in Green's underrated takedown defense in the larger octagon, and the stage should be set for a striking match that favors the prop at hand.

The Pick: Bobby Green by KO/TKO/DQ (+550 at BetRivers)

Billy Ward: Blaydes in the Danger Zone

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET

Based on their recent results, the “interim” heavyweight title fight at UFC 304 can easily be classified as a striker vs. grappler matchup. Defending champ Tom Aspinall (-395) has knockout wins in four of his last five fights while Curtis Blaydes (+310) is well-known for being one of the best heavyweight wrestlers.

However, that misses some key details. Namely, that Aspinall is a high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with two submission victories in the UFC. He’s the rare (modern) heavyweight who even goes for submissions, harkening back to the days of fighters such as Frank Mir and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.

That’s especially useful against a wrestler like Blaydes. “Razor” might struggle to deal with the striking of Aspinall and decide to take a risky takedown attempt to get out of danger. That mostly works against lesser fighters, but Aspinall is crafty enough with his submissions to punish any mistakes.

Plus, there’s always the chance of a “club and sub” in which Aspinall earns the victory with his strikes but secures it with a submission. There’s no inverse equivalent of that phenomenon – no “lock and knock,” if you will – so we get a bit of equity there as well.

Submissions are also more likely early in fights, when the offensive fighter still has the juice to squeeze out chokes, and the defensive fighter isn’t sweaty enough to slip out of submissions as easily. That’s why I’m adding the “Round 1” modifier here, as well as the fact that Aspinall is roughly even money to pick up a first-round sub.

Of course, you could play with various UFC 304 same game parlay features to extend the time window in exchange for a slightly lower return.

The Pick: Tom Aspinall by Round 1 submission (+600 at ESPN Bet)

John LanFranca: What if Blaydes Succeeds?

Contributor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET

If Curtis Blaydes can survive the earlier striking exchanges that have plagued him in the past, his path to victory involves pressing his wrestling and cardio advantages. All four of Blaydes’ professional losses have come by knockout, and all four of those knockouts came within the first two rounds.

Tom Aspinall is extremely dangerous everywhere the fight goes, but if Blaydes keeps the fight standing for very long, it’s going to be light out for him. And, of course, that is the reason why the current interim champion is a massive moneyline favorite tonight.

However, what if Blaydes can implement his game plan? I am not expecting somebody the caliber of Aspinall to wilt under the pressure with immediate ease, but carrying the weight of the massive Blaydes can and will undoubtedly wear on a fighter.

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That is where things would get interesting.

In Aspinall’s UFC career, he has not been involved in one fight that has lasted even seven minutes. In fact, 15 of his 18 professional fights have ended in the first round.

We truly do not know what Aspinall’s cardio would look like if this fight gets extended, but we do know if this fight does not end quickly, the chances for an upset increase rapidly. I am willing to take my chances on a longshot here with so many unknowns. If Blaydes can dictate where this fight plays out, he is absolutely live to get a finish in the late rounds.

The Pick: Curtis Blaydes by KO/TKO in Rounds 3, 4 or 5 (+1600)

Dann Stupp: It's the Champ's Night

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET

This is Leon Edwards' night to shine. This is a card built around the growlingly confident UFC welterweight champion – in his home country with a favorable matchup to boot.

Some would call this a trap fight for Edwards, a substantial moneyline favorite who's taking on a title challenger who could no longer be ignored. With a nine-fight winning streak that includes some unfinished business (a 2021 no-contest) with the Edwards (-270), Belal Muhammad (+220) is finally getting his title shot.

Surely, 36-year-old Muhammad knows it's do-or-die time. He's unlikely to get another shot at gold if he falters tonight, and he simply can't afford a boring, safe, risk-adverse game plan.

Unfortunately, any added pressure or aggression from Muhammad is likely to play right into Edwards' game. Edwards isn't necessarily a big KO artist, and Muhammad is undoubtedly durable. But this feels like it'll be a highlight-reel KO for the champ to cap off a storybook ending to the (very long) night.

Initially, I wanted to get greedy and dabble with super-juicy round props (+2100 for Edwards in Round 4 or +2600 in Round 5, for example). But hey, sometimes the name of the game is taking the safe and conservative approach. And it's not often the cautious choice comes with 3-1 odds.

Let's sit back, watch the champ do his thing, and hope for an Edwards KO at some point during the 25-minute fight.

The Pick: Leon Edwards by KO/TKO/DQ (+300 at DraftKings)