Casey O'Neill vs. Luana Santos Odds
Check out the Casey O'Neill vs. Luana Santos odds with my UFC 305 pick and prediction for Saturday, August 17.
Will we finally see the Casey O'Neill we all remember from a few years ago? The once-red-hot prospect that injected some fresh blood into the 125-pound flyweight division?
That's the big question heading into this UFC 305 preliminary card bout, where O'Neill looks to end a two-fight skid when she meets intriguing-but-still-unproven Santos.
A few years ago, it's hard to imagine O'Neill as anything but a solid favorite in this spot.
Now, though, we may be getting some tremendous value with O'Neill vs. Santos at UFC 305.
Dann Stupp's Tale of the Tape
| O'Neill | Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-2 | 8-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:17 | 7:23 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125.5 lbs. | 126 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/7/1997 | 4/16/2000 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 8.41 | 5.33 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 6.30 | 3.21 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 65% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.77 | 2.03 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 60% |
| TD Def | 66% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 2.0 |
At worst, I feel like this is a 50-50 fight for O'Neill, regardless of her recent form.
Therefore, getting any underdog odds for the more-proven product already seems like a good deal. In fact, motivated by Billy Ward's UFC 305 Luck Ratings earlier this week, I immediately grabbed a piece of O'Neill, knowing I'd have some closing line value, if nothing else.
But there are many other intangibles that make me more secure in my pick for this bout.
For one, O'Neill's UFC stock is at an all-time low with her recent skid. Likewise, Santos has some buzz, but her most recent win was largely due to a boneheaded move by opponent Mariya Agapova, who tried to readjust her mouthpiece instead of fighting off a choke:
O'Neill made some mistakes in her recent fights – mainly, falling in love with her striking – but I don't think she's green enough to make such an unfocused error like the one above.
Also as an advantage, O'Neill is fighting at home with a full camp against an opponent who's crossing the globe from Brazil with a mere two-week fight camp. O'Neill also recently spoke about her need to refocus and improve, and she recently changed fight teams. That kind of move is usually a good step for a fighter in her situation.
Additionally, as O'Neill continues to distance herself from a serious knee injury, her confidence is only going to grow. In interviews this week, she said she finally doesn't even think about her knee while training.
O'Neill should have an edge on the mat with grappling that's more polished for the sport of MMA. But even if (new) old habits die hard and she keeps the fighting standing more than she should, I think O'Neill could still have an advantage, especially with a two-inch reach advantage and an active striking game.
O'Neill vs. Santos Pick
With O'Neill likely undervalued by the market, the short-notice nature of the bout for Santos, and a partisan crowd that could help sway the judges (in a fight expected to go the distance 67% of the time), I think the value is clearly on the home underdog.
Santos could very well be among the next generation of flyweight contenders, but until I've seen her against more O'Neill-level opposition, I'm favoring the more proven product on MMA's biggest stage.
I'm sitting pretty with my +145 moneyline bet from earlier in the week, but at the current +128 odds, I think O'Neill still has solid value. I'd make this bout a pick'em at worse, so play it down to +110 to still get some decent value.
The Pick: Casey O'Neill (+128 at BetRivers) | Play to +110
