Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya Odds
| 11:59 p.m. ET | |
Check out the Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya odds with my UFC 305 pick and prediction for Saturday, August 17.
The UFC will return to RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia, on Saturday for the first time since UFC 284. The event will feature a middleweight title bout between current champion Dricus Du Plessis and former two-time champion Israel Adesanya.
This fight was anticipated since Du Plessis defeated Robert Whittaker at UFC 290 – and faced off against Adesanya in the cage. Adesanaya lost his subsequent title defense against Sean Strickland, who later lost a close decision to Du Plessis, giving way to this anticipated middleweight title fight.
Du Plessis is 7-0 in the UFC with five finishes. However, 58% of fans and nine of 22 media scorecards would have given his last fight to Strickland.
Adesanya is 13-3 in the UFC with all his losses coming in title fights against Blachowivz, Periera (in a fight he led) and Strickland.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 305 main event and utilize those factors to bet on Adesanya and Du Plessis, who should make their cage walks at approximately 11:55 p.m. ET on Saturday on ESPN+ PVPV.
The event starts with early prelims at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, moves to ESPN at 8 p.m. ET, and then to PPV for the main card at 10 p.m. ET.
Sean Zerillo's Tale of the Tape
| Du Plessis | Adesanya | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-2 | 24-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:27 | 18:16 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 184 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 80" |
| Stance | Switch | Switch |
| Date of birth | 1/14/1994 | 7/22/1989 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.49 | 3/93 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.77 | 3.11 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.00 | 0.05 |
| TD Acc | 51% | 14% |
| TD Def | 40% | 77% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 0.1 |
Adesanya is both the taller and longer athlete (3" taller, 4" reach advantage) and should be able to use his size and length to control range with kicks from distance. All three champions who have defeated Adesanya (Blachowicz, Strickland, Alex Pereira) excel at checking leg kicks and are more technical offensive strikers than Du Plessis.
Du Plessis will need to blitz in (in a similar manner as Paulo Costa or Whittaker) if he wants to close the distance against a longer opponent. That could leave him open to counters from a fighter accustomed to striking on the back foot.
Du Plessis retains all of the offensive grappling upside in this fight. He's likely to land takedowns (averages 2.5 attempts per round, 52% accuracy); the questions are whether he can do so in multiple rounds and how long he spends on top of his Adesanya each time.
Du Plessis is five years younger and a much more powerful athlete. Taking down Strickland six times (on 11 attempts) is no easy task, and the way he overpowered Whittaker was impressive. Still, Du Plessis controlled Strickland for only two minutes, and he will likely need more control time than that to neutralize and defeat a superior striker in Adesanya.
Adesanya is 35 and coming off a lengthy layoff (he hasn't fought since September 2023); there's a chance he has declined athletically since we last saw him.
Adesanya didn't look as sharp or quick in the second Pereira fight – before landing the knockout – and he was flat against Strickland and outpaced for 80% of their matchup.
As a result, I won't be surprised if Du Plessis manhandles Adesaya in the grappling, but the first takedown – and the subsequent actions within that first grappling exchange – could tell us a lot about how this fight might play out. Du Plessis may also be able to grind the clock by pressing Adesanya's back up against the fence and using his strength to control the clinch.
If Du Plessis prefers to strike from range in Round 1 – and the line tips toward Adesanya – I'd consider live betting Du Plessis at a better number before potentially pursuing his best path to victory.
Conversely, if Adesanya gets taken down early but can scramble back to his feet with relative ease, I'd instead bet him live.
The takedowns won't come as quickly once Adesanya lands leg kicks on Dricus.
Du Plessis vs. Adesanya Pick
I projected this fight around a coinflip, favoring Du Plessis slightly (50.9% of -104 implied odds). Dricus opened closer to +140, and the line continued to tick in his direction.
Ideally, I would get plus money on both sides of this fight – potentially combining a pre-fight wager with a live bet.
Consider taking +110 or better on either side of the matchup; wait until closer to fight time to see if the line moves toward either fighter, and then play back the other side.
I expect this fight to reach a decision 47% of the time (+111 implied odds) and don't see value concerning the total.
Based upon listed odds – in a pick'em flight slightly favored to end inside the distance – Adesanya has more decision equity (listed +225 vs. +400), and Du Plessis has more finish equity (listed +180 vs. +275).
I project value on Du Plessis by decision (projected +336) with a 45/55 split between his decision and finish equity, compared to more of a 35/65 split in the betting market.
I'll poke his decision prop but would still wager on either side of the moneyline – in a likely competitive fight – at +110 or better.
The Picks: Dricus Du Plessis wins by decision (+425 at bet365) | Either side of moneyline (wait for +110 or better)
