Joshua Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos Odds
Check out the Joshua Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramosa odds with my UFC 305 pick and prediction for Saturday, August 17.
Both Culibao (11-3-1, 5 KOs, 1 SUB) and Ramos (16-6, 7 SUB, 4 KOs) are on two-fight losing skids, unranked, aren't on the main card, and don't they invoke big plans promotionally from the UFC.
Culibao, 30, and Ramos, 29, also aren't necessarily young either, in athletic terms.
But, in their defense, we've seen UFC stars breakout in their 30s, including Sean Strickland, Jorge Masvidal and others, so we can't completely write these two off yet, especially since we expect to have a winner.
Bryan Fonseca's Tale of the Tape
| Culibao | Ramos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-3-1 | 16-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:52 | 8;42 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 146 lbs. | 145.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/24/1994 | 8/1/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 37% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.24 | 3.74 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 3.02 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 60% |
| TD Def | 67% | 72% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.7 |
Culibao and Ramos both have solid length for this weight class.
Culibao will have an ever-so-slight height and reach advantage – 5-foot-10 to 5-foot-9 and 73 inches to 72 – in this bout.
Maybe it serves him well, but given Ramos' edge on the ground, it might not matter – more on that shortly.
Culibao is coming off back-to-back losses, as mentioned earlier, and both were on points. We last saw him lose to Danny Silva by split decision in March, though Silva missed weight and the bout was contested at 148.5 pounds – 3.5 pounds above the MMA featherweight limit.
And before that, Culibao was unanimously outclassed by a dominant Lerone Murphy in July 2023. He rode a three-fight winning streak before that, and he had a stoppage loss – the first and only of his career – at the hands of the explosive Jalin Turner in his lightweight debut in February 2020.
He immediately returned to featherweight after.
For the slightly younger and more experienced Ramos, we saw him get choked out in two straight fights, both via guillotine. Ramos dropped his last bout against Julian Erosa in March one week after Culibao's most recent bout. And before that, Ramos was subbed by Charles Jourdain, whom Culibao tied with in October 2020, six months prior to his loss against Erosa. Both guillotine chokes were suffered in the first round.
Ramos is currently on a run of four losses in six fights, the first of which was a TKO defeat to the aforementioned Murphy. Overall, he's tapped three times and been knocked out twice.
Culibao vs. Ramos Pick
Overall, this is a fun matchup.
The issue here is that Culibao isn't a Brazilian jiu-jitsu blackbelt; Ramos is. Ramos has a distinct advantage on the ground and can at least be competitive standing. You have to give Culibao the edge standing up because he's at least less chinny, but Ramos has been caught on the ground, which is likely where Culibao doesn't want to take the fight anyway.
Culibao got his first career submission against Melsik Baghdasaryan a year and a half ago, but it wasn't like he shot for a takedown and methodically took over the fight before catching him with an armbar from full mount or half guard. He dropped Baghdasaryan with a power jab, took his back and choked him out.
I think Ramos is just undervalued here. He's better on the ground, he's skilled enough to take the fight there, good enough to win on points, and he's even explosive enough to catch Culibao for a finish (see his spinning elbow vs. Danny Chavez).
We should expect to see some chess early on, some effective countering, and overall, some desperation. But I'm riding with Ramos because he simply has more pathways to victory in what should otherwise be a close and fun ass fight.
Enjoy the fight and don't go broke!
The Pick: Ricardo Ramos (+130 at bet365)
