Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker Odds
| Tafa Odds | -117 |
| Walker Odds | -106 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-159 / +120) |
| Location | RAC Arena in Perth, Australia |
| Time | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN & ESPN+ |
| UFC 305 odds as of Saturday and via BetRivers. Bet on UFC 305 with our BetRivers promo code! | |
Check out the Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker odds with my UFC 305 pick and prediction for Saturday, August 17.
Saturday's UFC 305 featured prelim involves unranked heavyweights with Tafa vs. Walker.
The steam is on Tafa in this matchup; he opened with -106 odds on the moneyline and is now listed at -134 at BetRivers at the time of this writing.
I agree with the steam, and here is how I will be backing the favorite with a prop bet in my Tafa vs. Walker preview for UFC 305.
Tony Sartori's Tale of the Tape
| Tafa | Walker | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-2 | 11-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:33 | 15:00 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 244 lbs. | 252 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/21/1996 | 12/14/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 1.81 | 2.20 |
| SS Accuracy | 40% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.86 | 3.87 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 43% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 80% |
| TD Def | 81% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Let me start with this statement: Neither of these guys is very good. Tafa is a striker who carries a substantial amount of power, but that is pretty much it.
Meanwhile, Walker is a wrestler who relies on using his massive size to wear down opponents and eventually ground and pound his way to victory.
So, between two below-average heavyweights, which guy and style will prevail?
I project Tafa to take care of business despite his mere 5-2 MMA record. If this fight stays on the feet, it should be all Tafa.
That is where he is more comfortable with a boxing and kickboxing background, especially when you combine that with his massive power. Walker will shoot for takedowns to bring this to the mat, but I am skeptical about his success in doing so.
Tafa boasts an 81% takedown defense across three UFC bouts. If he is stuffing takedowns at that rate and forcing Walker to stay on the feet, then I estimate that the underdog will have only a puncher's chance.
Tafa vs. Walker Pick
While I think that laying -125 (Betway) to -130 (DraftKings) isn't a bad play at all, I would rather just take his KO/TKO prop at a more favorable +138 return. Oddsmakers are expecting this fight to end inside the distance, given that it is priced at -205 to do so.
Subsequently, Tafa's method-of-victory odds at BetRivers are as follows:
- KO/TKO (+138)
- Submission (+1800)
- Decision (+575)
It makes sense that Tafa by KO/TKO/DQ is the most likely outcome, and at plus money, that is how we will back the favorite. There is no reason that Tafa would bring this fight to the mat; that would be Walker's preference.
Meanwhile, Tafa's 81% takedown defense makes me confident that he can prevent Walker from taking the fight there as well. As alluded to earlier, when standing, there is no reason why Tafa shouldn't be able to put him down.
All five of Tafa's professional MMA wins have come by KO/TKO.
The Pick: Junior Tafa by KO/TKO (+138 at BetRivers | Play to +130)
