Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates Odds
Check out the Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates odds with my UFC 305 pick and prediction for Saturday, August 17.
The UFC 305 main card opens with a potential welterweight war between China's Jingliang and Brazil's Prates.
A welterweight who has been out of the octagon since 2022, Jingliang will finally return to action after a neck injury sidelined him from an anticipated showdown with Michael Chiesa back at UFC 287.
Welcoming Jingliang back is an alum of the Contender Series in Prates.
Although Prates is not as proven as Jingliang on this level, the Brazilian striker has strung together an impressive highlight reel in his last handful of fights that has helped garner him hype heading into Saturday's pay-per-view opener.
Dan Tom's Tale of the Tape
| Jingliang | Prates | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-8 | 19-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:37 | 6:41 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 3/20/1988 | 8/17/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.84 | 5.23 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 39% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.25 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 41% | 0% |
| TD Def | 60% | 80% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Despite Jingliang and Prates possessing some deceptive ground skills in their back pocket, both men prefer to primarily settle things standing.
A former muay Thai fighter credited with more than 100 fights in Thailand, Prates is no stranger when it comes to the art of eight limbs. From a tapping lead foot to extended hand traps up high, Prates offers a lot of the tricks and traps you see from Thai-style fighters.
Whether Prates is punishing the body with knees and teeps or launching pinpoint crosses down the centerline, "The Nightmare" is good about maintaining the classic southpaw double threat of head and body assaults, forcing his opposition to think fast regarding what's coming next.
Prates also quietly carries a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but we've seldom had to see him grapple much thus far due to his solid clinch game and counter-wrestling. That said, Prates will need to be ready for all forms of attacks when it comes to fighting someone like Jingliang.
Known as "The Leech," Jingliang can seemingly absorb skills and punishment alike.
Fueled by solid athleticism and an insane chin to boot, Jingliang is a well-rounded talent who isn't afraid to get dirty on the job.
Whether Jingliang's working his way in via jabs and leg kicks or is countering aggressively with hooks, the 36-year-old veteran is an incredibly potent puncher whose power Prates will need to respect.
I suspect that we'll see more of the countering version of Jingliang given his brief history opposite southpaws, but I wouldn't put takedowns past the Chinese competitor either.
Jingliang vs. Prates Pick
The oddsmakers and the public favor the Brazilian fighter, listing Prates -335 and Jingliang +260 as of this writing.
Despite officially siding with the favorite, I can't say that I love the moneyline options listed above.
Aside from Prates being way too wide a favorite for how little we've seen from him at this level, Jingliang is the more proven product who has never been stopped by strikes in his pro career. For that reason alone, I don't blame anyone for taking a small stab at Jingliang, considering the plus money attached to his name.
However, it's hard to be sure what version of Jingliang we'll be getting after a two-year layoff due to a serious neck injury.
Jingliang may not technically own a knockout loss on his record, but the 17-year pro has been rocked or dropped repeatedly throughout his UFC tenure (primarily in the first round). Moreover, 75% of Jingliang's sustained knockdowns in the UFC have also come in the first frame – all via left-sided strikes.
Couple all that with the fact that Jingliang is technically 0-1 opposite UFC-level lefties, and I believe that the signs sadly point to The Leech suffering his first stoppage due to strikes this weekend.
But with the bookmakers making you pay handsomely for a pathway that's yet to be proven, it's hard to recommend any moneyline wagers or chalky method props on Prates with a straight face.
That said, since I'm officially picking Prates to win in under 1.5 rounds, I can't help but shout the "Prates to win in rounds 1 or 2" prop – which is currently going off in the neighborhood of +114 via BetRivers – if you have access to it (or you can find similarly outlined SGPs at houses like DraftKings for comparable prices).
Outside of that, this feels like your classic 'dog-or-pass spot in which you either play Jingliang pre-flop or look to bet him live for potential profits and hedges alike should he survive Round 1.
The Leans: Carlos Prates in Rounds 1 or 2 (+114 at BetRivers) | Live bet Jingliang after Round 1
