Stewart Nicoll vs. Jesus Santos Aguilar Odds
| Nicoll Odds | -210 |
| Santos Aguilar Odds | +176 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-148 / +116) |
| Location | RAC Arena – Perth, Australia |
| Time | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| UFC 305 odds as of Saturday and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC 305 with our FanDuel promo code! | |
Check out the Stewart Nicoll vs. Jesus Santos Aguilar odds with my UFC 305 pick and prediction for Saturday, August 17.
We don't see a lot of UFC entrants make their way to the promotion without appearing on the Contender Series or The Ultimate Fighter reality show, which makes the signing of Stewart Nicoll very interesting.
He's an 8-0 prospect originally from the Solomon Islands who now calls Australia home, and he's got an interesting backstory. Slotting him in the UFC 305 opener is a move designed to get the Perth fans engaged from the start, and based on his betting odds, it might just pay off.
His opponent is Jesus Santos Aguilar, a 2-1 UFC fighter who has one win via split decision win and another victory against Shannon Ross, who exited the promotion with a 0-3 record plus a loss on the Contender Series.
Despite the experience gap, Nicoll is the clear A-side here. But how should we bet it?
Billy Ward's Tale of the Tape
| Nicoll | Aguilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-0 | 10-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | n/a | 7:53 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 126 lbs. | 127.25 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | n/a | 62" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/4/1994 | 3/13/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 0.00 | 1.49 |
| SS Accuracy | 0% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 0.00 | 1.11 |
| SS Defense | 0% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 1.90 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 33% |
| TD Def | 0% | 40% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 1.4 |
We'll start with Aguilar, who's probably most notable for having just a 62-inch reach. That's the shortest in UFC history among male fighters, and it ranks below most of the women as well.
That's understandably forced Aguilar, who missed weight for this fight (127.5), into a grappling-heavy fighting style for most of his career. Six of his 10 career wins have come via submission and three via decision.
He packs a fair bit of power, as he showed in the knockout win against Ross. While it was an impressive finish, given Ross' string of knockout losses, it's hard to put much stock in that win. Watching the fight back, it also looks like the overhand right Aguilar landed was initially planned to set up a takedown entry.
Aguilar's struggled against higher-level grapplers as well, and Tatsuro Taira took him down within the first 10 seconds of their fight and controlled on the ground for more than eight minutes in his questionable split decision win over Mateus Mendonca.
Aguilar relies heavily on guillotines rather than defending takedowns, which worked for him at the regional level but has been (and will continue to be) less successful against UFC-caliber opponents.
Which puts him in a tough spot against Nicoll, a second-degree Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who's won all eight of his fights with his grappling. He started his career with a string of submission victories, and he's coming in with four straight ground-and-pound finishes since then.
Which isn't a coincidence either. In his official fighter Q&A, (which is easily the most interesting one I've ever read), he discusses the intentional switch from hunting submissions to looking to do damage on the ground. That's a wise decision to make, especially with the modern judging criteria in MMA.
Nicoll will need to make big strides in his overall game to progress to the higher levels of the division since he's fairly awkward on the feet and doesn't set up takedowns with strikes especially well. However, that shouldn't be an issue against Aguilar, whose short reach will force him to close the distance, providing takedown chances for Nicoll.
Nicoll vs. Aguilar Pick
With seven of his eight wins coming inside the distance and his somewhat steep moneyline price, I expected Nicoll's by-finish/inside-the-distance prop to be much closer to his moneyline than the juicy +200 price offered by FanDuel.
Aguilar's habit of "defending" takedowns by hunting guillotines will almost certainly see him put on his back in this fight. Given Nicoll's ability to end fights once his opponents are grounded, I see him doing the same here.
I have my concerns about Nicoll's long-term prospects in the division, but he'll pick up a few wins before that matters.
I'm going with Nicoll by stoppage, which can be found under the "Double Chance" menu at FanDuel (or just use the QuickSlip link below).
The Pick: Stewart Nicoll by KO/TKO or Submission (+200 at FanDuel)
