UFC 305 Odds & Predictions for All 12 Fights With Sean Zerillo’s Betting Preview (Saturday, August 17)

Check out the official UFC 305 odds with my predictions for all 12 fights for Saturday's pay-per-view, including the Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya main event and title rematch.

Below, I take a look at the latest UFC 305 odds and break down and predict each bout on tonight's card, which takes place at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia.

Here's how to watch UFC 305: The early preliminary card begins at 6:30 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ before the regular prelims kick off at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. The five-fight main card then starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ pay-per-view (PPV cost: $79.99).

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And after looking at the UFC 305 odds, this overseas event is no exception.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 305 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 305 with our DraftKings promo code.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 305 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 12 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings

UFC 305 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

UFC 305 Odds

Stewart Nicoll vs. Jesus Santos Aguilar

Crowdsourced Projections: Stewart Nicoll (65.9%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Stewart Nicoll vs. Jesus Aguilar preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Nicoll is a rare UFC debutant who didn't have to earn a contract on Contender Series or take a fight as a short-notice replacement. He isn't big for flyweight but will have a size advantage (1" taller, 3"reach") at range and the crowd on his side against alligator-armed Jesus Aguilar (62" reach), who most recently scored a sketchy split decision in his home country of Mexico.

Before that, Aguilar recorded his first career knockout against an extremely chinny Shannon Ross. I'm not high on Aguilar as a fighter – and he tends to jump guillotine, which could put him on his back for extended stretches against the grappling-oriented Nicoll.

I'd expect Nicoll to generate substantial control time in this matchup and to find opportunities to finish via submission or ground and pound.

Still, his regional opponents (combined 28-18 record) were of extremely low caliber; Aguilar is a big step up in competition and someone far likelier to survive on the bottom, though he has been submitted twice in his career, including a first-round loss to Taturo Taira.

I projected this fight to reach a decision 58% of the time (-140 implied), slightly higher than the divisional average (54.1%). Neither fighter is a knockout artist, and both are seemingly durable; any finish here likely comes via submission – which happens only 20.7% of the time in flyweight bouts.

Bet the decision or distance prop to -130.

Bets

• Fight Goes to Decision (-120, 0.25u) at DraftKings

Song Kenan vs. Ricky Glenn

Crowdsourced Projections: Song Kenan (68.7%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Song Kenan vs. Ricky Glenn preview from my colleague Dann Stupp.

Given the limited number of Chinese martial artists in the promotion, I'd assume the UFC views Song Kenan as the A-side of this matchup.

He's a natural welterweight and prospect gatekeeper, and his name is recognizable among the UFC fanbase due to three knockout wins and a near finish of Ian Machado Garry at UFC 285.

His opponent, Ricky Glenn, is a natural featherweight (27 of 32 fights at 145 pounds) who has suffered consecutive knockout losses at lightweight (155) and will now move up to welterweight (170) to take on a power puncher.

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Glenn should be the quicker man, but Song hits significantly harder and should have ample opportunities to finish a potentially chinny opponent or deal substantial damage to him over 15 minutes.

Glenn is the better kicker – and potentially has offensive grappling upside – so I wouldn't invest too heavily in Song's moneyline (projected -220, listed -175). Song will land the more damaging head strikes, but any decision would likely be sweaty.

Instead of the moneyline, I show value on Song's knockout prop (projected +125, listed +145), odds to win inside the distance (projected -106, listed +110), and finish only moneyline (projected -345, listed -275).

Notably, Song's knockout prop is -110 (52.4% implied) at offshore books – more than a 10% reduction compared to domestic odds at +145 (40.8% implied).

Bets

• Finish Only Moneyline: Song Kenan (-275, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Song Kenan (-175, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Song Kenan wins by KO/TKO (+145, 0.25u) at BallyBet

Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes

Crowdsourced Projections: Tom Nolan (90.5%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes preview from my colleague Clint MacLean.

Alex Reyes is 0-2 in the UFC and has fought once since 2017 – a first-round knockout loss against Charlie Campbell at the UFC Apex last September. He'll draw power-punching Tom Nolan – a 6'3" lightweight 14 years his junior – and go off as one of the more significant underdogs in UFC history.

This is the type of uncompetitive matchmaking you become accustomed to in lesser promotions that seek to build up their prospects. The UFC typically books competitive fights for young talent but has been guilty of similar matchmaking with Bo Nickal.

Reyes isn't without a puncher's chance. Nolan has been knocked out and down in his two UFC bouts, and he was knocked out as an amateur, too. Still, the UFC only intends to make him part of Nolan's future highlight reel.

I'd assume there's value on the Over 1.5 Rounds, sitting as high as +230 in a lightweight bout. Still, this fight could end on the first exchange, and I'm not interested in that gruesome of a sweat.

Alternatively, Nolan winning by submission (+850 at BetRivers; projected +636) could be actionable, but it's not enticing enough of a price with zero submission wins on his record.

Bets

• Pass

Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns

Crowdsourced Projections: Jack Jenkins (85%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.

Herbert Burns is always live for a dangerous early grappling sequence against any opponent, but he typically fades after that initial explosion. He hasn't shown an inability to compete in the second and third rounds, particularly as he ages, making Jack Jenkins a substantial moneyline favorite.

Burns' submission prop – and first-round finish props – should be priced much more closely to his moneyline than either his decision prop, knockout prop, or second and third-round finish props. However, while I give Burns only a 10% chance of winning a decision, the market is closer to 30-35%.

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As a result, you can bet Burns to win by submission at +1000 (projected +852), in Round 1 at +1600, or by Round 1 submission at +2300, each of which is likely mispriced compared to his moneyline odds. Jenkins was submitted twice regionally and broke his arm posting in his last fight. He may be extra cautious trying to get up, and I'd expect him to get grounded early.

The odds aren't particularly enticing for Jenkins to win in Round 2 (+275) or Round 3 (+500) or to win by Round 2 KO/TKO (+320) or Round 3 KO/TKO (+550), but I'll cover my Burns' position with some Jenkins Round 2.

Lastly, live bet the Aussie if he survives Burns' early onslaught.

Bets

• Herbert Burns wins by Round 1 Submission (+2300, 0.05u) at FanDuel
• Jack Jenkins wins by Round 2 KO/TKO (+320, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Jack Jenkins Live after Round 1

Casey O'Neill vs. Luana Santos

Crowdsourced Projections: Luana Santos (52.2%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Casey O'Neill vs. Luana Santos preview from my colleague Dann Stupp.

Luana Santos took this fight on short notice in place of Tereza Bleda. When you factor in the travel, her previous weight miss at 125 pounds, and her tendency to slow in the third round, Casey O'Neill, who has much better cardio, presents an obvious live betting opportunity.

Santos is the far better defensive striker (65% vs. 56% striking defense), but O'Neill is the more aggressive fighter with a two-inch reach advantage. I'd expect Santos' success to be frontloaded and for O'Neill to make this more competitive – if not wholly dictate the pace – the longer this fight goes.

O'Neill will have the crowd behind her, and a close decision could go her way if any local judges are involved; Casey's father, Cam, owns Eternal MMA, the most prominent regional promotion for Oceanic fighters.

More often than not, I have bet against O'Neill because she's been consistently favored (-200, -190, -420, -270, +130, -167 in her UFC career) in fights I thought were closer to coin flips. On Saturday, she's finally at underdog odds again, at home, against a short-notice opponent in another fight that looks like a potential.

Play O'Neill small on the moneyline pre-fight (projected +109, bet to +115), add more live after Round 1, and poke her odds to win by decision (projected +199, listed +300 at BetRivers) at +250 or better.

Bets

• Casey O'Neill (+128, 0.25u) at BetRivers
• Casey O'Neill wins by Decision (+300, 0.1u) at BetRivers
• Casey O'Neill Live after Round 1

Joshua Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos

Crowdsourced Projections: Joshua Culibao (53.2%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Joshua Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos preview from my colleague Bryan Fonseca.

I project value on both the underdog, Ricardo Ramos, and the Over or Goes to Decision Prop (projected 55%, or -124 implied) in this matchup; however, I don't trust Ramos's durability or his willingness to fight through adversity, making it extremely difficult to place either wager.

Ramos should have the offensive grappling upside in this matchup: a jiu-jitsu black belt who trains with wrestlers at Team Alpha Male against a powerful striker but purple belt in Culibao.

Still, Ramos has shown defensive issues, submitting to the first-round guillotine in consecutive fights. He also has a wonky chin, suspect cardio, and doesn't offer excellent output. Ramos typically trails on significant strikes before finishing opponents.

Culibao is both the more potent puncher and efficient striker (+1.2 to -0.8 differential per minute at distance), and I trust him to stay on the gas for all three rounds unless Ramos can get on top of him.

Wait for a better price (target +125) to back Ramos on the moneyline. I'd also consider plus money on the goes-to decision prop – but I'm not overly enthusiastic about either wager.

Bets

• TBA

Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker

Crowdsourced Projections: Valter Walker (52%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Justin Tafa vs. Valter Walker preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.

Valter Walker looks in much better shape for his sophomore outing than his UFC debut, where he closed as a -225 favorite (opened -400) against Lukaz Brzeski. I backed Brzeski in that matchup; he won a narrow decision where Walker fought a sub-optimal game plan but won the third round on all three scorecards.

Walker opened as a slight favorite against Junior Tafa but has flipped to underdog odds, and I'll happily take Walker and the grappling upside at plus money.

Each takedown could be an entire round in Walker's favor; Tafa has decent takedown defense but an inability to scramble off his back once opponents consolidate position.

Walker is the bigger and stronger man (3" taller, 3" reach advantage, 25 lbs. heavier) and showed decent cardio in his debut; if he pursues an optimal game plan, he should be able to bully Tafa in the grappling for the duration.

Bets

• Valter Walker (+115, 0.5u) at BetMGM

Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates

Crowdsourced Projections: Carlos Prates (73.9%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

Prates is a much longer fighter (7" reach advantage) but can be finish-reliant. He's low volume, overly patient, and fights with his hands low, defending strikes at just 39% in a limited sample.

Li Jingliang, "The Leech," hasn't fought since September 2022 due to a spinal injury. While you might suspect potential durability concerns for athletic decline following that injury, there's encouraging news that Leech may feel better; he was previously dealing with back and shoulder numbness and a strength disparity between his arms (the surgeries fixed the issue).

He's faced a far higher level of competition and, aside from Song Yadong and Zhang Weili, is the most accomplished Chinese mixed martial artist.

Moreover, Leech is durable – and game against any striker. He struggles against proficient grapplers and got manhandled by the likes of Khamzat Chimaev, but he's an efficient boxer (+1.1 strike differential) with underrated power. He has iced fighters, including Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, Santiago Ponzinibbio and Muslim Salikhov, who have looked much more durable against arguably better strikers.

Prates has been knocked out twice regionally. Aside from the spinal surgeries, I'd give Leech the durability edge.

Prates is an extremely dangerous muay Thai specialist and carries considerable power, but he's finished far chinnier, smaller and lesser opponents than Leech in his UFC run.

Moreover, Prates doesn't grapple offensively, so it's difficult to justify a hefty favorite price tag against a durable opponent in a striking match in which the underdog may land more volume.

Leech opened closer to +200 and has finally touched +300 as of this writing. As more parlays tie in Prates, the line should continue to tick up.

I'll wait until closer to fight time to take the best available price on the underdog, but I'd bet Jingliang above +275 or better (projected +269).

Bets

• Li Jinglinag (+300, 0.25u) at BetMGM

Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Crowdsourced Projections: Jairzinho Rozenstruik (67.6%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik preview from my colleague Clint Maclean.

Rozenstruik is the bigger, more durable fighter (3" reach advantage) and the more natural heavyweight.

Tuivasa likely won't have to worry about grappling against Rozenstruik, who has never attempted a takedown in the UFC, but he's been mauled on the mat by both Alexander Volkov and Marcin Tybura in his past two fights. And he's not wearing clean strikes as well in his recent losses.

Still, Tuivasa absorbed a ton of damage in losses to Sergei Pavlocich and Ciryl Gane and in his win over Derrick Lewis, and I no longer trust his chin as I used to if he decides to brawl in the pocket. He hasn't folded from one punch – the damage leading to finishes is attritional – but it does seem like a matter of time before his chin cracks, too.

Rozenstruik is the far more measured fighter and efficient striker (+0.8 to -1.4 strike differential). Even though he has the better harder, the Suriname kickboxer will be happy to stick and move on the outside of the cage against a dangerous opponent.

Until Tuivasa forces the issue, I'd expect a relatively tepid pace between these heavyweights and would consider targeting the Over 1.5 Rounds (+163 at BetWay). I also show value on Rozenstruik by decision (projected +644, listed +750).

Alternatively, you can try Rozenstruik in Round 3 or Decision (+400) or a same game parlay (SGP) with Rozenstruik and the Over 1.5 Rounds (+290 at DraftKings). Most of Tuivasa's win equity should be frontloaded.

I may add to this fight after weigh-ins, but I want to see how Tuivasa looks on the scales.

 Bets

• Over 1.5 Rounds (+135, 0.25u) at Fanduel
• SGP: Jairzinho Rozenstruik & Over 1.5 Rounds (+300, 0.1u) at DraftKings
• Jairzinho Rozenstruik wins by Decision (+750, 0.1u) at DraftKings

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker

Crowdsourced Projections: Mateusz Gamrot (73.3%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Dan Hooker hasn't faced many wrestlers in the UFC, and Mateusz Gamrot has a highly tricky, high-paced style (averaged seven attempts per round) that is difficult to defend from the outset when both fighters are dry.

As Gamrot tires – the more his opponents can scramble back to their feet and both opponents get sweaty – his attempts do become less effective, and Hooker may be able to work his way back into the fight.

Moreover, Gamrot is precisely the type of fighter who should be disadvantaged by the increased emphasis on damage as the primary scoring criterion. Gamrot prioritizes position over landing damage against opponents, and Hooker is the far superior striker at range (+0.3 to -0.3 differential over a more significant sample against better competition).

Gamrot has been knocked down five times in seven UFC fights, including each of his past four. While he seemingly always recovers well from those knockdowns, it gives the round away – and the margins are incredibly narrow in a three-round fight.

Hooker is the taller and longer fighter (2" taller, 5" reach advantage), and he can use lethal knees to cut off Gamrot's takedown entries.

Moreover, I'd expect Hooker to maintain a high output no matter the position these fighters are in. He has legitimate potential to win a decision off of his back if Gamrot fights in his typical control-oriented manner.

I'd take +300 or better on Hooker's moneyline pre-fight (projected +274). Still, I prefer his spread" target="_blank" rel="noopener">point spread (+3.5, +100), considering the likelihood he wins one round and the fact that he possesses more finishing upside.

Additionally, live bet Hooker after Round 1, and consider his KO/TKO prop (projected +835, listed +1000 at BetRivers) for round-robin tickets.

Bets

• Dan Hooker (+340, 0.1u) at Caesars
• Point Spread: Dan Hooker, +3.5 (+100, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Dan Hooker Live after Round 1

Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg

Crowdsourced Projections: Steve Erceg (65.7%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

Steve Erceg was a fight IQ mistake away from holding flyweight gold. He initiated a grappling sequence in Round 5 against Alexandre Pantoja when he needed to separate and strike.

Erceg is the bigger man against Kai Kara-France (4" shorter, 1" reach advantage), the better boxer, the more well-rounded martial artist, and possesses all of the offensive grappling upside.

Kara-France is quicker and the better kicker with solid takedown defense (88%). Still, he tends to give his back even after denying shots from opponents – and I expect Erceg, who should have struck more in his last fight, to grapple proactively in this matchup.

Back Erceg on the moneyline to -175 (projected -192) and consider playing his submission prop (projected +509, listed +750 at BetRivers). Erceg has an effective rear-naked choke. If he's covering his moneyline, he should have opportunities to sink it in.

Bets

• Steve Erceg (-155, 0.5u) at Caesars
• Steve Erceg wins by Submission (+650, 0.1u) at FanDuel

Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya

Crowdsourced Projections: Dricus Du Plessis (50.9%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out my Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya preview for UFC 305's headline bout.

Ideally, I would get plus money on both sides of this fight – potentially combining a pre-fight wager with a live bet.

If Du Plessis prefers to strike from range in Round 1 – and the line tips toward Adesanya – I'd consider live betting Du Plessis at a better number before potentially pursuing his best path to victory. Conversely, if Adesanya gets taken down early but can scramble back to his feet with relative ease, I'd instead bet him live. The takedowns won't come as quickly once Adesanya lands leg kicks on Dricus.

Consider taking +110 or better on either side of the matchup pre-fight. Wait until closer to fight time to see if the line moves toward either fighter, and then play back the other side.

I also project value on Du Plessis by decision (projected +336) with a 45/55 split between his decision and finish equity, compared to more of a 35/65 split at listed odds (+400 and +185, respectively) in the betting market.

Bets

• Dricus Du Plessis wins by Decision (+425, 0.1u) at bet365

Zerillo's UFC 305 Bets

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Moneyline Bets

• Song Kenan (-175, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Casey O'Neill (+128, 0.25u) at BetRivers
• Valter Walker (+115, 0.5u) at BetMGM
• Li Jingliang (+300, 0.25u) at BetMGM
• Dan Hooker (+340, 0.1u) at Caesars
• Steve Erceg (-155, 0.5u) at Caesars

Prop Bets and Totals

• Aguilar/Nicoll, Fight Goes to Decision (-120, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Finish Only Moneyline: Song Kenan (-275, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Song Kenan wins by KO/TKO (+145, 0.25u) at BallyBet
• Herbert Burns wins by Round 1 Submission (+2300, 0.05u) at FanDuel
• Jack Jenkins wins by Round 2 KO/TKO (+320, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Casey O'Neill wins by Decision (+300, 0.1u) at BetRivers
• Dan Hooker, +3.5 Points (+100, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Tuivasa/Rozenstruik Over 1.5 Rounds (+135, 0.25u) at Fanduel
• Jairzinho Rozenstruik wins by Decision (+750, 0.1u) at DraftKings
• Steve Erceg wins by Submission (+650, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Dricus Du Plessis wins by Decision (+425, 0.1u) at Bet365

Parlays

• SGP: Jairzinho Rozenstruik & Over 1.5 Rounds (+300, 0.1u) at DraftKings

Live Bets

• Jack Jenkins Live after Round 1
• Casey O'Neill Live after Round 1
• Dan Hooker Live after Round 1