For many MMA fans, fight night wouldn't be complete without some UFC 305 parlays to sweat.
And for UFC 305, I have a traditional parlay and a same game parlay that you can tail.
UFC 305 takes place on Saturday at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. Following prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET) and then ESPN (8 p.m. ET), the five-fight UFC 305 main card kicks off on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET.
The parlay train in this column continues to roll as we cashed yet another +700 same-game parlay at UFC 304. This time around, as I analyzed the card to put together a three-fight all-violence parlay, I came to the realization the submission aspect of these particular bouts was not necessary. Thus, let’s dive into an all-KO venture that pays better than +1000.
Let's dig into tonight's action.
UFC 305 odds as of Saturday and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC 305 with our FanDuel promo code!
UFC 305 Parlay
Parlay Leg 1: Song Kenan by KO/TKO (+140)
Three of Song Kenan’s five UFC wins have come by knockout, and he is in a great spot to add another to his record. Kenan clearly has fight-ending power, even dropping undefeated welterweight contender Ian Machado Garry in their matchup back in 2023. Based on his recent strength of schedule, he is getting a step down in competition with Ricky Glenn on deck for Saturday night. Glenn has been KO’d in each of his last two fights, with apparent durability concerns at age 35. In total, Glenn has only 20 minutes of time inside the cage over the last five years, and I don’t see him righting the ship against the dangerous Kenan.
Parlay Leg 2: Tom Nolan by KO/TKO (-360)
Tom Nolan is -500 at other sporstbooks to finish this fight by knockout, so we are getting a small discount at FanDuel. To be frank, his opponent Alex Reyes is not a UFC-level fighter. Reyes has only two MMA fights on his record over the past seven years, both resulting in him getting knocked out in the first round. This is about as clear of a setup fight as you’ll see in the UFC, with Nolan looking to provide an early stoppage in front of his home crowd.
Parlay Leg 3: Tai Tuivasa by KO/TKO (+270)
It’s very difficult to envision two heavyweight bangers going to a decision, and the oddsmakers agree with me. Tai Tuivasa and Jairzinho Rozenstruik have an implied 86.6% chance (-650) that this bout does not reach the judges’ scorecards. Tuivasa fighting in front of his home crowd is the value side of this fight, as there is a near-zero chance he will face any type of grappling from Rozenstruik. This will be a kickboxing match, and while both men are dangerous, the likelihood of Tuivasa being the one to land the bigger shot is higher than the 27% he is given at this price. Rozenstruik hasn’t exactly beaten the top tier of UFC heavyweight; I am willing to take a chance he is being overvalued by a considerable margin in this spot.
UFC 305 Parlay:
- Song Kenan by KO/TKO (+140)
- Tom Nolan by KO/TKO (-360)
- Tai Tuivasa by KO/TKO (+270)
UFC 305 Parlay: +1034 (FanDuel)
UFC 305 Same Game Parlay
Same-game parlays are the best way to correlate fight results to maximize your payout. This week we will be attacking a preliminary fight between Casey O’Neill and Luana Santos. Santos is stepping in on relatively short notice after an impressive showing just a month ago. Santos is on a five-fight winning streak, yet I think her being the favorite in this fight against the veteran O’Neill is a mistake by the oddsmakers.
Santos is a high-level judo practitioner averaging more than 2.0 takedowns per 15 minutes, and she has landed multiple takedowns in her past two UFC fights. Before entering the UFC, she relied even more heavily on her grappling advantage. While O’Neill is a well-rounded fighter, her 66% takedown defense in the octagon leads me to believe Santos will hunt for the takedown early on as she has in many of her fights.
While O’Neill may find herself on the mat in the early going, I expect her to work back to her feet and eventually see her cardio advantage come to fruition. Santos tends to slow as fights get extended, and thus the longer this bout goes, it is good news for the hometown fighter in O’Neill.
In every fight O’Neill has had in the UFC that entered the third round, she's been credited with 70+ significant strikes, which included a 229-significant-strike performance back in 2022 that brought her average to a healthy 8.41 significant strike landed average per minute during her time in the octagon,
As long as O’Neill can avoid too dangerous of a position during the opening frame, this is her fight to win. Santos has plenty of hype behind her, but while I expect her to have some early grappling success, taking this fight on short notice may not bode well for her as this contest progresses.
I am backing the underdog on the prelims here on Saturday and increasing her payout substantially if I am correct on how this fight plays out.
Thus, my UFC 305 same-game parlay is:
- Casey O’Neill moneyline (3-way)
- 1+ Luana Santos total takedown Round 1
- 70+ Casey O’Neill total significant strikes
UFC 305 SGP with Casey O'Neill: +425 (DraftKings)
