Check out our UFC props for UFC 305 with our favorite long-shot prop bets for Saturday, August 17.
UFC 305 takes place at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. Following prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET) and then ESPN (8 p.m. ET), the five-fight UFC 305 main card kicks off on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET.
With 12 fights, UFC 305 prop opportunities are plentiful, and the MMA Prop Squad has found a handful they like for tonight's Australian card.
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +5.3 units and a +1.2% ROI per bet to date.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC 305 odds for matchups as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 305 with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC 305 Props – MMA Prop Squad Predictions
Dan Tom: Quick KO for Kenan
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target a potential "hot round" in a preliminary attraction at 170 pounds between Song Kenan (-218) and Ricky Glenn (+180).
Whenever I refer to the term "hot rounds," I'm typically referring to rounds in which there's serious potential for a particular party to finish.
In this case, I'm betting on a potent finisher versus a slow starter who's on the wrong end of the durability and size spectrum.
Despite Glenn traditionally being a fighter who could lean on his chin and toughness to get through a fight, the 18-year pro has sadly seen his vaunted staying power start to go at this stage of his career.
Not only has Glenn been stopped in the first frame in his last two appearances, but the 35-year-old will be facing a potent first-round finisher in Kenan.
Aside from the fact that 12 of Song's 17 finishes have come in Round 1, the former kickboxer is also a welterweight who has experience fighting up at middleweight.
I'm not sure why the former featherweight in Glenn is coming up to this weight class, but I suspect that the Midwest vet walks himself into another rough stoppage via strikes in Round 1.
The Pick: Song Kenan by Round 1 KO/TKO (+360 at FanDuel)
Tony Sartori: Familiar Game Plan for Ramos
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC prelims feature a featherweight bout between Josh Culibao (-122) and Ricardo Ramos (+102). Ramos is undervalued in this spot, and I think that he can get back into the win column tonight in Australia.
Yes, Ramos is coming off two straight losses, but he was beating Julian Erosa before poor decision-making led to him tapping to a guillotine choke from guard. Ramos was also involved in some crazy grappling exchanges against Charles Jourdain before tapping once again to a guillotine.
With that said, those are two savvy veterans who allowed Ramos to display his upside before ultimately securing a specific choke. The good news for Ramos in this fight is that Culibao does not possess that level of grappling.
Therefore, Ramos can utilize his more well-rounded game plan against Culibao without as much fear of getting caught in a guillotine. If that is the case, then Ramos should (and likely will) utilize his traditional go-to game plan of landing takedowns and either racking up control time or securing submissions.
This is exactly how he beat Bill Algeo and Journey Newson, both by unanimous decision. Across those two fights, Ramos landed a total of 11 takedowns while accumulating 6:12 of control time.
So, the question is, will this game plan work against Culibao? I absolutely think so, especially considering that he has lost each of his past two fights by that method.
Culibao lost by decision to both Danny Silva and Lerone Murphy. He got taken down seven times on just 14 attempts for a mere 50% defensive success rate. He also surrendered 13:06 of control time across those two bouts.
However, Culibao did defend himself against numerous submission attempts through those two losses and still has yet to tap across 15 professional bouts. Point being, if Ramos' game plan is successful and he goes on to win this fight, I believe it is a likely outcome to occur on the scorecards as Culibao is capable of getting dominated on the mat through three rounds without tapping along the way.
The Pick: Ricardo Ramos by decision (+350 at BetMGM)
John LanFranca: A Big, Sweaty KO Bet
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
It feels like oddsmakers have no idea what to do with two low-level heavyweights of two more accomplished brothers. Valter Walker makes his second UFC appearance after losing his debut as an undefeated prospect. The good news for Walker (+102) is that his opponent, Junior Tafa (-118), lacks any type of grappling or ground skills, thus creating a clear path to victory in getting redemption for his debut loss.
Tafa has seen the second round only three times in his MMA career, and he was finished in the second round by strikes his last time in the octagon. While there are obvious questions about Walker’s cardio, you cannot assume Tafa’s cardio is much better.
In Walker’s previous four bouts before entering the UFC, three of those went over 1.5 rounds, two of which Walker converted into ground-and-pound KO victories. Walker has very little choice in this fight on what his game plan will consist of; he is almost assuredly going to play into the hands of Tafa if he opts to keep the fight on the feet.
I expect Walker’s coaches to exploit the glaring weakness in Tafa’s game and have Walker pursue takedowns early on in each round. Tafa is lost on the ground, and he will have trouble getting back to his feet.
An attritional stoppage is on the table for the fighter with the clear wrestling advantage on Saturday.
The Pick: Valter Walker by KO/TKO (+470 at FanDuel)
Billy Ward: Don't Sleep on Hooker's Power
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET
When handicapping most sports, one of the most important concepts to understand is regression. What type of events haven't happened as often as we’d expect based on underlying numbers, either due to luck, variance or some other factor?
That’s a tricky concept in MMA, as fighter stats are heavily matchup-dependent and hard to compare across fights. There are some things we can look at, though, including record in split decisions, which I frequently touch on in my Luck Rankings.
Another under-looked factor is the conversion rates from knockdowns to knockouts. We’d expect that to hold fairly steady; the difference in impact between a strike that sits a fighter down and one that turns off the lights is fairly minimal.
Mateusz Gamrot has been knocked down in four of his last five fights, but he's seen the final bell every time (and won three of those). While some of those weren’t especially big moments, the straight left hand he ate from Beneil Darisuh would’ve felled most average-sized trees.
Now Gamrot (-410) draws Dan Hooker (+320), who has an 80% takedown defense rate and seven KO wins in his 13 UFC victories. That’s a recipe for danger for Gamrot, who will rely heavily on grappling to avoid the power of Hooker.
Given Hooker’s five-inch reach edge, he’ll have plenty of chances to catch Gamrot on the way in for takedowns. Gamrot struggled to close the distance against a longer opponent in Jalin Turner, getting dropped but rallying back to win a split decision against a gassed Turner (who took the fight on short notice).
Gamrot’s grappling makes him a rightful favorite here, but the line on Hooker to pick up a KO is far too long.
The Pick: Dan Hooker by KO/TKO/DQ (+900 at BetRivers)
Lian Heslin: Pair of Plays for an Erceg Stoppage
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET
Steve Erceg has finished eight of his 12 professional wins. Now, the "Astroboy" from Perth, Western Australia, returns to a hero's welcome after nearly dethroning flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja in Brazil.
Erceg's title loss was the validation he needed to know he can compete with the very best in the world.
Tonight, Erceg (-225) will meet Kai Kara-France, (+185), another former title challenger who fell short in his biggest opportunity. The difference was that Erceg was one position away from claiming gold whereas KKF was violently finished by Brandon Moreno with a body shot.
Kara-France is a decent, well-rounded fighter, but he doesn't have the grappling chops that Erceg owns. Erceg is 6-0 career to the submission, he is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and he has attempted two solid submissions so far in four UFC fights.
Kara-France is 3-3 to the submission, and his most recent tap came to Brandon Royval via guillotine choke.
What makes matters worse for the New Zealander is his unfortunate history of concussion protocols, which caused him to withdraw from a scheduled bout with Manel Kape this past September. Erceg is more active, durable and dangerous in all phases.
I trust the younger fighter to seek a highlight-reel victory, and the data suggests he will have opportunities. Kara-France has suffered four knockdowns and conceded nine submission attempts in 11 UFC starts.
The Picks: Steve Erceg by stoppage (+340 at BetRivers) | Erceg by submission (+650 at FanDuel)
