Check out our UFC 306 best bets for Saturday, September 14, with Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili in the main event.
UFC 306, also called UFC Noche, takes place on Saturday at the state-of-the-art Sphere in Las Vegas. Prelims are available on ESPN+ (7:30 p.m. ET) and ESPNews (8 p.m. ET) before the pay-per-view main card on ESPN+ PPV (10 p.m. ET).
So where should you look to place your UFC 306 best bets for this unique, all-immersive event? Our crew has pinpointed three fights and six picks on Saturday’s card that present clear betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from DraftKings.
UFC 306 odds as of Saturday evening. Bet on UFC 306 our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 306 Predictions
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
UFC 306 Picks, Best Bets
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Manuel Torres: Over 1.5 Rounds
Billy Ward, Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
The UFC 306 prelims feature a pair of unstoppable forces meeting immovable objects in the form of Ignacio Bahamondes (+100) and Manuel Torres (-120). Torres has finished 14 of his 15 professional wins in the first round while Bahamondes has 11 finishes in 15 career wins (including three of four in the UFC).
On the other side of the coin, neither man has been knocked out in his career while each holds two submission losses.
Bahamondes is probably the better submission grappler here, but he’s never even attempted a takedown in the UFC, much less landed one. Torres is the more dangerous striker (at least early), but he’ll be dealing with a considerable height and reach disadvantage this time around.
Torres has been hurt on occasion in the UFC, but he managed to recover fairly quickly each time. Still, that gives me enough pause to prefer the Over 1.5 rounds to the juicer Fight Goes to Decision line. With Torres starting fast, I expect Bahamondes to stay patient and defensive early while possibly clipping him down the stretch.
Given Torres’ style, there will be a point very soon when I’m betting on him to get knocked out. Granite chins only last so long, and he plays a dangerous game. However, this isn’t the spot; Bahamondes is more of an attritional finisher.
Including the Contender Series, four of the Chilean’s five finishes have come after the halfway point in the fight. I see this one playing out in a similar fashion.
The Pick: Bahamondes-Torres Over 1.5 rounds (-110 at Betway & Hard Rock)
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Manuel Torres: Torres Inside the Distance
Tony Sartori, Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
With the Manuel Torres vs. Ignacio Bahamondes prelim, the steam is heavily on Torres, who opened as the underdog at +122 and has since been bet up to his current -130 price tag.
I agree with the steam, though I think there is still a good way to back Torres at plus money, and that is by taking his To Win Inside the Distance prop at +120 odds. We have Fight of the Night potential in this match as 16 of Torres' 17 professional MMA bouts have resulted in a finish.
Not only that, but all 16 (!) of those fights ended in the first round. Torres is violence personified, but as the saying goes, "It takes two to tango."
Enter Bahamondes, who is also frequently in tremendously entertaining fights; 13 of his 20 professional MMA bouts have ended with a finish, so we have the recipe for yet another great ending in this scrap.
Oddsmakers agree as they priced the Fight Doesn't Go to Decision prop as wide as -400. So, should we back Torres inside the distance at +120 or Bahamondes inside the distance at +150?
I want to take Torres, who is the superior boxer in my opinion. Both guys are good strikers, but Torres' output is superior both in terms of power and accuracy.
The knock on the favorite is his defense, but Bahamondes' defense is hardly any better, and in a fight in which it is going to be nonstop action, I want to back the guy with superior offense. Finally, Torres brings a stronger grappling game into the equation as well, giving us another avenue to victory if needed.
The Pick: Manuel Torres inside the distance (+120 at DraftKings)
Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko: Grasso to Win
Dann Stupp, Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET
My MMA betting results have largely sputtered this year, so I've promised myself to get back to the fundamentals. So that's going to be my approach for the UFC 306 co-headliner and trilogy match between women's flyweight champion Alexa Grasso (-130) and challenger Valentina Shevchenko (+110).
Basically, I want to stick to what's proven to work, and for the UFC 306 co-headliner, that means I should back the younger fighter, as well as the reigning champion in a rematch. History and past betting results have proven these to be profitable strategies on a basic level.
And in both cases, they favor 31-year-old Grasso over 36-year-old Shevchenko.
Additionally, we've got some other strong points in the champ's favor. Dan Tom discussed some of them in his Grasso vs. Shevchenko preview, and Sean Zerillo did the same in his UFC 306 odds preview. As Dan mentioned, Grasso seems to have the edge at making fight-to-fight improvements, as well as in-fight adjustments. And as Sean mentioned, Grasso has the superior boxing while Shevchenko seems to be losing some speed.
Package it all together, and I think we're getting some solid value on Grasso at -130 odds. That's an implied win probability of 56.5%. However, I think Grasso, at minimum, wins this fight 60% of the time (-150) and perhaps comfortably up to 65% (-186).
Also, don't forget that a big part of this year's Noche UFC event is built around Grasso. Dana White and UFC brass may sometimes seem indifferent about their women's divisions, but they never miss an opportunity to push a marketable female champion, and Grasso is proving to have that "it factor." A partisan crowd should also make their favoritism clear on fight night.
If you're a judge in a mind-bending environment with crazed fans, it's going to be awfully hard – consciously or subconsciously – to score close rounds against the crowd favorite and reigning champ.
The Pick: Alexa Grasso (-130 at FanDuel)
Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili: Dvalishvili to Win & More
Sean Zerillo, Senior Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET
Saturday night's UFC 306 main event features UFC bantamweight champion Sean O'Malley (-118) vs. challenger Merab Dvalishvili (-102).
I projected Merab Dvailisvili as a 52.1% favorite (-109 implied odds) in this matchup and would bet his moneyline down to even money (+100) pre-fight. You can wait until fight night to fire for the best available odds; I'd expect O'Malley to remain on the public side (taking 65-70% of the action at present) and potentially get tied into cross-sport parlays as one of UFC's few transcendent starts.
I expect O'Malley to succeed early, but I would also look to live bet Dvailishvili at a better price after Rounds 2, 3, and 4.
Dvalishili's performance against Petr Yan – his only five-round professional opportunity – remains the most impressive I have ever seen in MMA; Merab attempted nearly 12.5 strike attempts and two takedown attempts per minute across five rounds. I'd favor him to win down the stretch of this matchup – into the championship rounds – by pushing a pace that would make any fighter uncomfortable, averaging more than one takedown attempt per minute (37% accuracy) – and 10.8 per five minutes at distance. O'Malley hasn't faced many proactive grapplers.
I projected the fight to end inside the distance 54% of the time (-117 implied odds) compared to consensus odds nearer to -115. O'Malley is a threat to close the show anytime during the fight. Still, I feel Merab's finishing chances – either via injury (with O'Malley's historical ankle/foot issue) or cardio-based stoppage in the championship rounds – are being undersold.
Betting both the underdog and the under is a bit of a built-in hedge since I view O'Malley as the likelier finisher (projected 80% of his win condition vs. 30% for Merab), and you'd push (if you stake both bets the same) if O'Malley lands the knockout blow.
Still, I'd maintain that one of those lines – either the moneyline or the total – has to be grossly mispriced pre-fight, given the correlation of the win conditions for both combatants. While I do prefer the underdog, I'll take some of inside the distance, too, and look to avoid an O'Malley decision.
Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili Picks: Merab Dvalishvili (+115 at Caesars) | Fight ends inside the distance (-115 at DraftKings) | Dvalishvili live anytime after Round 2
