UFC 306 Odds, Predictions for All 10 Fights: Sean Zerillo’s Betting Preview

Check out the official UFC 306 odds and betting lines with my predictions for all 10 fights for Saturday's pay-per-view, including the Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili title fight and main event.

Below, I take a look at the latest UFC 306 odds and break down and predict each bout on the fight card.

UFC 306, also called Riyadh Season Noche UFC, takes place at the state-of-the-art Sphere in Las Vegas and promises a one-of-a-kind environment tonight.

Here's how to watch UFC 306: The early preliminary card begins at 7:30 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ before the regular prelims kick off at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNews. The five-fight main card then starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ pay-per-view (PPV cost: $79.99).

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And after looking at the UFC 306 odds, this event is no exception.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC in the Sphere odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

UFC odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 306 with our DraftKings promo code.

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UFC 306 Schedule, Fight Times

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

My UFC 306 Predictions & Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 10 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings

My UFC 306 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

UFC 306 Odds, Picks

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aori Qileng

Crowdsourced Projections: Raul Rosas Jr. (86.4%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aori Qileng preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.

On Saturday's UFC card, Raul Rosas Jr. is the youngest fighter (19 years old) and the most significant moneyline favorite (as high as -1200 or 92.3% implied).

Typically, that type of moneyline pricing is reserved for a prospect facing a short-notice regional replacement; Aori Qileng (Aoriqileng) has three UFC wins at bantamweight (over Cameron Else, Jay Perrin and Johnny Munoz Jr.) and has won rounds against ranked-caliber flyweights like Cody Durden and Jeff Molina; he's far from some regional-scene can.

Rosas is the taller man (2"), but "The Mongolian Murderer" has a reach advantage (2") and is the far more technical and powerful striker.

However, Rosas has all of the grappling upsides in this fight, and it is likely the most challenging wrestling test that Qileng – who has struggled to defend takedowns (58%) or get off his back at the UFC level – has faced to date.

Moreover, Rosas excels at taking his opponents' backs, and his positional dominance increases his chances of securing a 10-8 round in his favor.

Ultimately, I don't show any pre-fight betting value on this matchup – from a moneyline, total, or winning method perspective.

However, I would consider live betting on Qileng if he's around after five minutes. Rosas has shown limited cardio when opponents force him to work.

Bets

• Aori Qileng Live after Round 1

Edgar Chairez vs. Joshua Van

Crowdsourced Projections: Joshua Van (66.1%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Edgar Chairez vs. Joshua Van preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Joshua Van will return to the UFC octagon two months after his first career knockout loss, which came against Charles Johnson. He's the younger fighter and the better prospect, but Edgar Chairez is the bigger man (2" taller, 6" reach advantage). Van typically falls behind in Round 1 against his opponents; he's lost Round 1 on at least one scorecard in all four of his UFC bouts.

Van may take his time to navigate that reach discrepancy and find his way to the pocket, where he is the better boxer. However, as Van begins to take over the striking exchanges in the second and third rounds, Chairez seems likely to mix in some offensive grappling; seven of his 11 wins are by submission, and grappling defense is considered the main weakness in Van's otherwise intriguing skill set.

While I'd lean to the underdog pre-fight (projected +195), I'm interested in live betting on Van at a better price after Round 1 – once we can confirm that the chin has healed and before he picks up the pace down the stretch against Chairez.

However, due to Van's recent loss, we're getting a discount on the Goes to Decision prop (-160 at DraftKings) between two typically durable fighters.

I projected that prop at -186 and would bet it to -170, and I also show slight value on Van to win by decision (projected +116, listed +135).

I'd prefer the former as a straight bet and the latter as a round-robin piece; you can wait for a live entry to back Van instead.

Bets

• Fight Goes to Decision (-160, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Joshua Van Live after Round 1

Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza

Crowdsourced Projections: Yazmin Jauregui (86.3%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketelen Souza preview from my colleague Bryan Fonseca.

Given the subjective (and sometimes seemingly corrupt) nature of judging, betting a big favorite in Yazmin Jauregui at -500 (88.3% implied) in a strawweight fight (37.2% divisional finish rate) lined at -225 (69% implied) to reach a decision seems -EV in the long run.

If Jauregui covers her price tag, she finishes the fight or wins a clean 30-27 (with a potential 10-8 round in the mix). I show value on her knockout prop (projected +308, listed +360 at BetRivers), submission prop (projected +1125, listed +1800 at FanDuel), and inside the distance prop (projected +206, listed +250 at FanDuel) depending upon the book, and I would prefer the ITD prop as a straight bet among the trio.

Jauregui seems more appropriately lined in the finish-only market at -650 and on the -3.5 point spread at -225.

Additionally, I give Souza more decision equity (projected +580, listed +650) than the betting market, so while I also project value on the ends inside the distance prop (projected -175, listed +200), that's all correlated to a Jauregui finish.

As a result, I'd take Jauregui's finish prop for a small wager, poke Souza by decision instead at longer odds, or pass on this fight altogether.

Bets

• Yazmin Jauregui wins Inside the Distance (+250, 0.1u) at FanDuel

Bet Jauregui ITD (+250) Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Manuel Torres

Crowdsourced Projections: Ignacio Bahamondes (50%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Manuel Torres preview from my colleague Clint Maclean.

Manuel "El Loco" Torres is a fast starter. He has finished 14 of his 15 career wins in Round 1, including four wins under the UFC banner in 9 minutes and 13 seconds combined.

Ignacio Bahamondes is a big athlete (5" taller, 2" reach advantage) who prefers to play a range game, but Torres will look to crowd him and potentially grapple from the outset. Bahamondes has solid takedown defense (85%) but looks better at attacking submissions on top than he does at defending opponents from advancing or threatening when he's flat on his back.

Moreover, Bahamondes has tall-man defensive-striking tendencies, and I'd expect Torres to have a speed and physicality advantage in the early stages of this fight. The determinative question on his side is whether Torres – whose lone career losses came by Round 1 submission – can hurt Bahamondes early or maintain a hectic pace beyond five minutes.

I'd expect Bahamondes to take over in the back half of the fight and would live bet the Chilean after Round 1. While he could have opportunities to land an early finish against a reckless opponent, I'd expect Bahamondes to weather the storm and for the pair to neutralize one another in grappling exchanges at some point in the first half of the fight.

Still, while I project moneyline value on Bahamondes (projected +100, listed +120), I wouldn't want much on that pre-fight or take below +110. I'd wait for the live angle and a better number on Bahamondes after Round 1.

I prefer the Over 1.5 Rounds (-110) and the goes to decision prop (projected +208, listed +280) as straight wagers for this fight.

From a prop perspective, consider betting Bahamondes to win in Round 2 (+600), Round 3 (+1000), or by decision (projected +471, listed +600). If you can play a same-game parlay, Bahamondes and Over 1.5 (+260 at DraftKings) expresses a similar opinion, too.

Bets

• Over 1.5 Rounds (-110, 0.25u) at Betway
• SGP (+260, 0.1u) at DraftKings: Ignacio Bahamondes & Over 1.5 Rounds
• Ignacio Bahamondes Live after Round 1

Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont

Crowdsourced Projections: Irene Aldana (50.8%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.

Irene Aldana is the taller and longer fighter (2" taller, 1" reach advantage) and the better boxer in this matchup while Norma Dumont is the superior wrestler and grappler.

Compared to my projections, the fight is appropriately lined as a pick'em, though I would have considered betting Aldana at plus money, given a perceived output advantage.

Still, by the numbers, Dumont is the more efficient striker (+1.8 to -1.4 strike differential per minute at distance), though Aldana maintains a higher work rate (5.6 to 4.5 strikes landed per minute).

This fight will be won or lost in the clinch. Aldana has strong takedown defense (76%) but tends to get stuck on her back if her opponents consolidate position. While Dumont doesn't maintain a high work rate on the mat, the former featherweight maintains control after takedowns with solid top pressure.

Still, Dumont doesn't have great cardio. If Aldana can make her work to get takedowns or scramble back to her feet in any round, she can swing close rounds in her favor with cleaner boxing and head strikes.

Look for a live opportunity on Aldana after Round 1 – depending on how much Dumont has grappled and/or how much success (or lack thereof) she has had grappling to that point.

For instance, I wouldn't bet Aldana if Dumont hadn't tried to grapple through five minutes, but I would if she made Dumont work relatively hard to get one or two early takedowns or showed the ability to get back to her feet.

Bets

• Irene Aldana Live after Round 1

Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode' Osbourne

Crowdsourced Projections: Ronaldo Rodriguez (52.1%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode' Osbourne preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

The strength of schedule for Ronaldo Rodriguez is relatively unimpressive; he lost on Contender Series to Jerome Rivera (0-4 in the UFC) in 2020 and subsequently beat five regional opponents (two by decision, including one split, another by injury) – who have gone 7-14 combined in their subsequent regional fights (1-6, 2-2, 1-2, 0-1, 3-3) – to earn a shot against Denys Bondar (0-3 in the UFC), who won a unanimous Round 1 against Rodriguez before gassing out.

Ode' Osbourne is seven years older than Rodriguez and tends to slow in third rounds. Still, he has legitimate UFC wins, is the much longer man (8" reach advantage), and is a tricky southpaw for Rodriguez to adjust to – particularly in the opening frame.

I'd expect Ode' to gain a lead in this fight early and to find opportunities to hedge on Rodriguez at plus money live after Round 1.

I like this fight to go longer and would bet the Over 2.5 rounds or go to decision prop at plus money (projected +113, listed +140 at Caesars to reach a decision).

I also expect Osbourne to win the first ten minutes and win a decision (projected +248, listed +350) more often than the betting market anticipates. Still, I prefer his moneyline (projected +109) alongside the Over.

Bets

• Ode Osbourne (+140, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Over 2.5 Rounds (+105, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Ronaldo Rodriguez Live after Round 1

Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics

Crowdsourced Projections: Daniel Zellhuber (61.9%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics preview from my colleague Clint Maclean.

Daniel Zellhuber has proven himself a slow starter, losing Round 1 on two of three scorecards against Francisco Prado (as a -350 favorite), dropping Round 1 unanimously to Christos Giagos (as a -300 favorite), and losing an odd decision to Trey Ogden (as a -225 favorite), where he never put his foot on the gas.

Zellhuber is the much bigger man (8" reach advantage, 3" taller), but he has tall-man defensive tendencies, absorbing strikes at 56% compared to an expected rate closer to 60%. Zellhuber backs up straight when he is pressured – and leaves his head on the center line – creating opportunities for opponents to clip him with powerful shots.

Zellhuber should land more output across 15 minutes, but judges must weigh his volume of kicks against Ribovics' more powerful boxing combinations and head strikes.

If Zellhuber wants to cover his price tag in this matchup, he should proactively grapple. Ribovics has shown subpar takedown defense (he permitted 14 takedowns and more than 13 minutes of control in his first two UFC fights before a quick knockout over Terrance McKinney), and Zellhuber has an underrated submission game. Still, his lone takedown attempt came in his contender series fight.

Ribovics' power should be enough in a striking match to win a round. I'm interested in his point spread (+3.5, -125) but also show value on his moneyline (projected +162, listed +190) and KO/TKO prop (projected +483, listed +650), which looks like a solid round-robin enhancer.

You could consider hedging on Zellhuber live after Round 1 but before he picks up the pace.

Bets

• Esteban Ribovics (+190, 0.25u) at BallyBet
• Esteban Ribovics +3.5 point spread (-125, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Daniel Zellhuber Live after Round 1

Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes

Crowdsourced Projections: Diego Lopes (62.8%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

I originally previewed this fight for UFC 303 in June before Brian Ortega pulled out on fight day.

Nearly all of the points I originally made still stand, except for the fact that the short-notice booking was at 155 pounds since Ortega – who still intends to move up to lightweight – was struggling to make featherweight. Yet this matchup is back at 145 pounds for UFC 306.

Ortega has absorbed a lot of damage throughout his UFC career, but he isn't reacting as well to clean strikes as he used to – and his body is also seemingly failing him. Ortega rolled his ankle walking into the octagon for his last fight against Yair Rodriguez and was nearly finished in Round. If Rodriguez had any defensive grappling, he finishes Ortega in that matchup.

Getting sick after cutting to 155 pounds is an additional concern, let alone cutting to 145 for potentially a final time.

Diego Lopes is the bigger (3" taller, 3" reach advantage) and the more dynamic athlete in this fight. His speed and early explosiveness should pose problems for Ortega, particularly in the clinch, as Lopes fires his vicious uppercuts.

He should look to sprawl and brawl and avoid grappling exchanges, where Ortega has his best chance of winning. If Ortega does manage to get a takedown, however, it could be a round in his favor. Ortega has excellent top pressure, and Lopes is happy to accept the bottom position and hunt for submissions off his back.

Additionally, Ortega could secure a cardio-oriented comeback in the third round. Lopes ultimately faced Dan Ige in place of Ortega, but he tired badly in the third round in a 165-pound catchweight fight (after initially weighing in at 155); a high-paced fight at 145 could take a toll on his gas tank.

For the first booking, I originally bet Lopes to win by Round 1 KO (+650) and the Under 1.5 Rounds (+165).

I would place both bets at better odds (+700 and +170, respectively) for Saturday, but I also like the fight to end inside the distance (-120) and Lopes by KO/TKO (+310, projected +254) or inside the distance (+165, projected +127)

The moneyline has stayed just about where it closed for the first fight, but the inside-the-distance prop has dropped from -165 consensus to -130 since June, and the winning method and round props have adjusted accordingly.

Bets

• Diego Lopes wins by Round 1 KO/TKO (+700, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Diego Lopes wins Inside the Distance (+165, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-120, 0.25u) at Betway

Bet Lopes by R1 KO (+700) at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

Bet Lopes ITD (+165) Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko

Crowdsourced Projections: Alexa Grasso (56.3%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko III preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

Valentina Shevchenko has won the vast majority of minutes across the first two fights in this series. She led 2-1 on the scorecards headed into Round 4 of the first fight – where Grasso secured a submission – and aside from a knockdown in Round 2 of the second fight, Valentina would have led 3-0 heading into the championship rounds. Moreover, one judge scoring a 10-8 round for Grasso in Round 5 flipped the result from a split win for Shevchenko to a draw.

Ultimately, the about came down to a closely contested Round 4; the other rounds were clear, and 11 of 22 media scorecards and 49% of fan scorecards had the fight for Grasso (46% fan scorecards for Shevchenko, 5% draw)

Shevchenko has relied upon grappling (she spent 14 of 44 minutes, or 32% of fight time, in control positions) and kicking from range to win minutes against Grasso, who has proven herself the superior pocket boxer and body puncher with more effective clinch work.

Still, Valentina is 36, and the minute-winning has looked increasingly competitive in each round of this rivalry. Of the two, Grasso is more likely to have made physical and technical improvements since their last matchup.

On average, UFC women's flyweight fights reach a decision more than 60% of the time. In the first matchup, I bet Over 3.5 rounds at +100 and narrowly cashed; the fight was -160 to end inside the distance (61.5%) compared to +110 (47.6%) in the rematch, where I bet the decision prop at plus money, but the market has adjusted to -188 (65.3% implied) for the trilogy fight.

I projected the decision prop closer to -270 and would bet that prop up to -250.

Rather than laying juice, I might prefer Grasso's decision prop (projected +137, listed +210) after trying my luck at better odds (+370) in the second fight.

I came into the handicap expecting to bet Shevchenko after the price adjustment (closed as high as -1200 in the first fight, -225 in the second), with the feeling she had been robbed last time.

Still, my biggest takeaways on the rewatch were Grasso's superior boxing and continued improvements, while Shevchenko is noticeably slower than she used to be. I'd expect that progression to continue in a third fight.

Bets

• Alexa Grasso wins by Decision (+210, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Fight Goes to Decision (-188, 0.25u) at Betway

Bet Grasso by Decision (+210) Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili

Crowdsourced Projections: Merab Dvalishvili (52.1%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out my Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili preview for UFC 306's headline bout and bantamweight title fight.

In short, bet Dvalishvili on the moneyline to even money (+100) pre-fight. You can wait until fight night to fire for the best available odds – I'd expect O'Malley to remain on the public side (taking 65-70% of the action at present) and potentially get tied into cross-sport parlays as one of UFC's few transcendent starts.

I expect O'Malley to succeed early, but I would also look to live bet Dvailishvili at a better price after Rounds 2, 3, and 4.

I projected the fight to end inside the distance 54% of the time (-117 implied odds) compared to consensus odds nearer to -115. O'Malley is a threat to close the show anytime during the fight. Still, I feel Merab's finishing chances – either via injury (with O'Malley's historical ankle/foot issue) or cardio-based stoppage in the championship rounds are being undersold.

Betting both the underdog and the under is a bit of a built-in hedge – since I view O'Malley as the likelier finisher (projected 80% of his win condition vs. 30% for Merab), and you'd push (if you stake both bets the same) if O'Malley lands the knockout blow.

Still, I'd maintain that one of those lines – either the moneyline or the total – has to be grossly mispriced pre-fight, given the correlation of the win conditions for both combatants. While I do prefer the underdog, I'll take some of inside the distance, too, and look to avoid an O'Malley decision.

Bets

• Merab Dvalishvili (+111, 0.75u) at Caesars
• Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-115, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Merab Dvalishvili Live after Round 2

Sean Zerillo's UFC in the Sphere Bets

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Moneyline Bets

• Ode Osbourne (+140, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Esteban Ribovics (+190, 0.25u) at BallyBet
• Merab Dvalishvili (+111, 0.75u) at Caesars

Prop Bets and Totals

• Chairez/Van, Fight Goes to Decision (-160, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Yazmin Jauregui wins Inside the Distance (+250, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Bahamondes/Torres, Over 1.5 Rounds (-110, 0.25u) at Betway
• Rodriguez/Osbourne, Over 2.5 Rounds (+105, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Esteban Ribovics +3.5 (-125, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Diego Lopes wins by Round 1 KO/TKO (+700, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Diego Lopes wins Inside the Distance (+165, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Lopes/Ortega, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-120, 0.25u) at Betway
• Alexa Grasso wins by Decision (+210, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Grasso/Shevchenko, Fight Goes to Decision (-188, 0.25u) at Betway
• Dvalishvili/O'Malley, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-115, 0.25u at DraftKings)

Parlays

• SGP (+260, 0.1u) at DraftKings: Ignacio Bahamondes & Over 1.5 Rounds

Live Bets

• Aoriqileng Live after Round 1
• Joshua Van Live after Round 1
• Ignacio Bahamondes Live after Round 1
• Irene Aldana Live after Round 1
• Ronaldo Rodriguez Live after Round 1
• Daniel Zellhuber Live after Round 1
• Merab Dvalishvili Live after Round 2

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