Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko odds for UFC 306 on Saturday, September 14 – my expert UFC pick and prediction.
The co-headliner for UFC 306 at the Sphere in Las Vegas features a trilogy fight for the women's flyweight title between reigning champion Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko.
After Grasso took Shevchenko's title in a massive upset back at UFC 285, the stage was set for the rematch at last year's Noche UFC event.
The fight was an ultra-competitive affair that produced arguments for both ladies as the victor, but the judges ended up coming to a contentious draw that saw Grasso keep her belt.
Both fighters spent the interim time coaching the latest season of "The Ultimate Fighter" and will now look to settle things the third time around.
Dan Tom's Tale of the Tape
| Grasso | Shevchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-3-1 | 23-4-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:06 | 17:57 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 124 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 66" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 8/9/1993 | 3/7/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.67 | 3.28 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.95 | 2.11 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 62% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.41 | 2.56 |
| TD Acc | 45% | 63% |
| TD Def | 59% | 71% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.4 |
As we've seen throughout the nine rounds of competition against one another, Grasso and Shevchenko are as well-rounded as they are well-matched.
Although Grasso was technically out-gunned in the striking department on paper, the Mexican fighter was able to nullify a lot of Shevchenko's offense by matching her southpaw stance (something that Grasso hadn't shown yet at that point in her career).
Shevchenko was still able to find her jab and patent counter hooks and crosses, but the former muay Thai champion's kicks were largely muted without the open-stance lanes to operate within.
And with that predicament at play, Shevchenko found herself quickly leaning further into her semi-newfound trend of heavy ground fighting.
However, despite having some of her best moments in this series on the ground, grappling – ironically – cost Shevchenko in the latter rounds of each contest.
With that in mind, I'll be curious to see if the previous results affect Shevchenko's willingness to wrestle or her aggression overall.
Mistakes aside, it was refreshing to see Shevchenko more aggressive and active than usual in their last encounter, which is something I believe is necessary if she means to match – and eventually beat – Grasso.
When it comes to facing southpaw stances inside of the octagon, both Grasso and Shevchenko officially stand 1-1-1 (which coincidentally is also Shevchenko's standing record in rematches), so don't expect any easy answers in the statistics department for this trilogy installment.
Grasso vs. Shevchenko Pick
Despite the oddsmakers opening this fight much closer to a pick'em price tag, public money is slowly trickling in on the incumbent champion, listing Grasso -135 and Shevchenko +114 on the moneyline as of this writing.
Considering that Grasso is the younger and more hyped fighter, it doesn't shock me to see MMA gamblers gravitate toward the side of the sitting champ.
That said, I'd be careful about completely discounting Shevchenko in what is ultimately a styles matchup that's proven to be as competitive as it is volatile (as per the stats I provided in the previous section).
For that reason, I suggest looking at exposure on totals like the Over 2.5 rounds in this spot.
Whether you're using it as a parlay piece or looking to sprinkle on split decision props as a potential bonus, both could act as hedges regardless of which side you like.
I'll probably throw the split decision prop in a round robin and will be parlaying the over with UFC 306 main-card fighter Diego Lopes for plus money, but I'll ultimately be kicking for coverage with Grasso's moneyline as my main play.
Aside from the fact that the positive trends are on Grasso's side, the current champion has proven that she can make fight-to-fight improvements, as well as in-fight adjustments. Meanwhile, Shevchenko, despite technically winning more rounds between the two, has shown that she's prone to making mistakes in the final rounds of this series (something at was also true in her series with Amanda Nunes).
For that reason, I believe that it's justifiable to lay the Grasso side up to -150 for tonight's big Noche UFC co-main event.
The Pick: Alexa Grasso (-135 at DraftKings)
