Edgar Chairez vs. Joshua Van Odds
| Chairez Odds | +245 |
| Van Odds | -305 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-166 / +130) |
| Location | Sphere in Las Vegas |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPNews |
| UFC 306 odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 306 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Here's everything you need to know about Edgar Chairez vs. Joshua Van odds for UFC 306 on Saturday, September 14 – my expert UFC pick and prediction.
As part of the UFC's celebration of Mexican fighters, Edgar Chairez was a natural selection for UFC 306 this weekend. "Puro Chicali" is 1-1-1 in the UFC, and he trains out of Entram Gym in Baja California.
His original opponent for tonight's "Noche UFC" event was Peru's Kevin Borjas, but Borjas was injured at some point last week, so Joshua Van is stepping in for this prelim clash.
This will be the fifth UFC fight in 15 months for 23-year-old Van, who suffered his first UFC defeat just two months ago via knockout to Charles Johnson.
Can he right the ship against Chairez, or will the quick turnaround get the better of him tonight at UFC 306?
Billy Ward's Tale of the Tape
| Chairez | Van | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-5 | 10-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:01 | 12:28 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125.5 lbs. | 125.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/27/1996 | 10/10/2001 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.7 | 8.6 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.10 | 6.34 |
| SS Defense | 43% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 50% |
| TD Def | 41% | 81% |
| Submission Avg | 1.7 | 0.0 |
Edgar Chairez is nominally a jiu-jitsu-based fighter with seven of his 11 pro wins coming via submission (and his one no-contest should've been a submission win, but the ref called an early stoppage).
However, like many submission grapplers, he's having a tougher time making those submissions stick against higher-level opponents. Clayton Carpenter controlled him on the mat in their Contender Series bout, and he then had similar issues against Tatsuro Taira in his UFC debut proper.
To Chairez's credit, he took the Taira fight on a few days' notice, and the Japanese prospect is known for his elite grappling. Still, he made plenty of IQ mistakes in that fight, surrendering takedowns in order to look for sloppy guillotines while nearly getting him self stuck in a Von Flue choke in the process. His corner was also encouraging the guillotines, which was a huge tactical error.
On the other hand, he's the only fighter to land a UFC knockdown on Taira, and he's arguably better in the striking department, where he has quick hands and excellent leg kicks. If he can (and wants to) keep fights standing, he'll find more success in the UFC.
Which makes the matchup with Van interesting. Van is known for his striking, but he's coming off a third-round knockout loss to Charles Johnson just two months ago. He's a somewhat slow starter who builds throughout fights, overwhelming opponents with volume down the stretch.
Van has just a 65-inch reach, one of the shortest among male fighters in the UFC. He's giving up six inches to Chairez here, but that's nothing new for him. Van fights moving forward almost constantly in order to cut the distance and apply pressure – though it can leave him open for counters as we saw against Johnson.
That's a tricky style to bring into a fight with one week's notice. Particularly considering that Van probably took some time to recover from the knockout loss – though it wasn't an especially bad one.
Van is a competent grappler in his own right, but he primarily uses it to disrupt his opponents' timing and create openings in the striking. Should he choose to go that route against Chairez, he should be able to win some minutes while Chairez looks for submissions off his back.
Van is well-versed enough in the grappling that I'm not especially worried about him getting tapped by Chairez (other than perhaps a club-and-sub situation).
Chairez vs. Van Pick
Under normal circumstances, I'd be rushing to the window to bet on Josh Van at -230 or so against Edgar Chairez. Van is one of the brighter young prospects in the sport right now, and he's the more skilled overall fighter.
However, the two-month turnaround following his first knockout loss is concerning. Not just because of potential durability issues but also because Van's high-pressure and volume style requires plenty of cardio.
If some combination of the short notice and/or time off due to the loss end up sapping that cardio, he could be forced to either drop an early round while saving energy or fade late.
Chairez is extremely durable and has never been knocked out. He also has excellent cardio and took the third round from Taira (one of just two rounds Taira has lost in the UFC) despite taking that fight on short notice.
Therefore, I'm taking Chairez's point spread of +3.5 at DraftKings. This one is fairly likely to go to decision, and Chairez should be able to win at least one round in the process. If, for example, Chairez loses the fight 29-28 on all three scorecards (total scores of 87-84 for Van), we'd win our bet by a half point with his 3.5-point handicap (87-87.5).
The Pick: Edgar Chairez +3.5 point spread (-115 at DraftKings)
