Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Manuel Torres Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Manuel Torres odds for UFC 306 on Saturday, September 14 – my expert UFC pick and prediction.
UFC 306 is a love letter to Mexico as CEO Dana White says. However, Chile’s favorite son, Ignacio Bahamondes, is getting the opportunity to play spoiler on a very big stage at tonight's unique Noche UFC event.
Manuel Torres is the favorite, but is Bahamondes primed for an upset in this can't-miss UFC 306 prelim?
Let's preview Bahamondes vs. Torres with my betting angles, including some very juicy props for tonight's lightweight prelim.
Clint MacLean's Tale of the Tape
| Bahamondes | Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-5 | 15-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:49 | 2:18 |
| Height | 6'3" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 8/27/1997 | 3/25/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 7.15 | 8.14 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 58% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.38 | 3.15 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 3.26 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 66% |
| TD Def | 85% | 88% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 1.6 |
Both Bahamondes and Torres come from Dana White’s Contender Series, but Bahamondes has three more fights in the UFC since his time on the show.
Torres is 15-2 and is in his fighting prime at age 29. The Mexican fighter is a finisher with all but one of his professional fights ending inside the distance. He is exactly the kind of person the UFC is looking for in this day and age: all action.
Bahamondes has 10 wins by knockout on his record, so we would classify him as a finisher, as well. But what you see in his fights is that he lets the finish come to him.
Bahamondes has multiple late finishes on his record in contrast to the first-round finishes you see with Torres. Bahamondes has gone to decision seven times in his professional career, and he is 4-3 in those fights. While he has not been dominant in his decisions, we have evidence that Bahamondes knows how to fight for a full 15 minutes.
I do not know that Torres has that skill at the UFC level.
Bahamondes vs. Torres Pick
This fight is lined closely because Bahamondes is hittable and Torres has the power to put anybody away.
As I see it, if Bahamondes manages to slow the pace of the fight, he is the more technical striker, and that would favor him the deeper this fight goes.
Bahamondes is working hard on his grappling with UFC champion Belal Muhammad, so you can anticipate huge improvements from the 27-year-old, who should also have a great game plan. The only concern for me is that in the past, we have seen Bahamondes rely just a bit too much on being able to absorb punishment in order to win fights. Torres is not the man you want to use your chin against.
Still, I will pick Bahamondes. I believe he will mix in the grappling and wear on the unknown gas tank of Torres, I am expecting a Round 2 or 3 finish.
And a bit of a hot take: I wouldn't be surprised if Bahamondes wins by submission tonight, so I also have a few long-shot props that are worth a sprinkle.
The Pick: Ignacio Bahamondes (+115 at BetMGM)
Sprinkles: Bahamondes via Round 2 submission (+3400 at FanDuel) | Bahamondes via Round 3 submission (+4600 at FanDuel)
