Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont Odds
| Aldana Odds | -110 |
| Dumont Odds | -110 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-450 / +300) |
| Venue | Sphere in Las Vegas |
| Time | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPNews |
| UFC 306 odds as of Saturday evening and via Betway. Bet on UFC 306 tonight with our Betway promo code. | |
Here's everything you need to know about Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont odds for UFC 306 on Saturday, September 14 – my expert UFC pick and prediction.
This evening's UFC 306 featured prelim on ESPNews is a bantamweight bout between No. 5 ranked UFC contender Aldana and No. 8 Dumont.
This fight opened as a pick'em and remains at -110/-110 on the moneyline via Betway at the time of this writing.
In my Aldana vs. Dumont preview for UFC 306, I will be targeting one of these fighters who I feel is undervalued in this 135-pound clash.
Tony Sartori's Tale of the Tape
| Aldana | Dumont | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-7 | 11-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:38 | 14:50 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 136 lbs. | 136 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/26/1988 | 10/1/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.2 | 3.1 |
| SS Accuracy | 40% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 6.33 | 1.89 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 66% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.16 | 1.91 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 68% |
| TD Def | 76% | 72% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.0 |
While this fight is priced as a coinflip, I believe that Aldana is the superior fighter.
Yes, Dumont has won her past four fights, but the level of competition has been far lower than what she will see in Aldana.
Dumont beat a past-her-prime Germaine de Randamie, Chelsea Chandler (2-2 in the UFC), Karol Rosa (3-3 in her last six fights) and Danyelle Wolf (who?).
Any time Dumont faced elevated competition, such as Megan Anderson and Macy Chiasson, she lost.
After getting starched by Anderson, Dumont's game plan has developed into an extremely boring one with which she hopes to ride out the clinch to a decision victory. While that method works against unranked fighters, those of Aldana's skill level will be able to get out of those clinch situations and force the fight to actually occur.
It is in the actual fight where Aldana is the superior mixed martial artist.
Aldana vs. Dumont Pick
Dumont's passiveness is what makes her a limited fighter. The punches land, but she doesn't follow up and thus has never recorded a knockout victory.
Therefore, in a fight that is as wide as -435 to go to decision, can we really trust the clinch game plan to record more points than Aldana's striking-heavy game plan? Aldana loves to let the hands go, and she will undoubtedly complete this fight with more strikes thrown and landed than Dumont will.
That will obviously look good to the judges, and every second spent standing and banging should be seconds won for Aldana. Dumont could attempt to bring her to the mat, but I trust Aldana's 76% takedown defense to keep this matchup standing for the majority of the 15 minutes.
That number is also not really a great indication of how strong her takedown defense is, given that 11 of the past 14 takedowns landed against Aldana have come from Amanda Nunes and Holly Holm. With all due respect to Dumont, she is not on that level.
It's going to be easier for Aldana to look good to the judges when she is landing far more strikes, and with that in mind, I believe she is worth backing in a pick'em against Dumont.
The Pick: Irene Aldana (-110 at Betway) | Play to -115
