Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aori Qileng Odds
| Rosas Odds | +600 |
| Qileng Odds | -1000 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-105 / -125) |
| Location | Sphere in Las Vegas |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| UFC 306 odds as of Saturday evening and via Betway. Bet on UFC 306 with our Betway promo code. | |
Here's everything you need to know about Raul Rosas Jr vs. Aori Qileng odds for UFC 306 on Saturday, September 14 – my expert UFC pick and prediction.
Tonight's one and only UFC 306 early prelim features a bout between unranked bantamweights with Rosas vs. Aori Qileng (Aoriqileng). The curtain-jerker streams on ESPN+ and kicks of a long-awaited Noche UFC event at the state-of-the-art Sphere in Las Vegas.
The steam is heavily on Rosas in this matchup; he opened at -450 on the moneyline and is now listed at -1000 at Betway at the time of this writing.
I agree with the steam, and here is how I will be backing the massive favorite with a prop bet in my Rosas vs. Aoriqileng preview for UFC 306.
Tony Sartori's Tale of the Tape
| Rosas | Qileng | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-1 | 25-10 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:12 | 10:20 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 136 lbs. | 136 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 69" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/8/2004 | 6/25/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 1.12 | 5.31 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.4 | 6.0 |
| SS Defense | 47% | 47% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.39 | 1.45 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 46% |
| TD Def | 0% | 58% |
| Submission Avg | 1.8 | 0.0 |
As suggested by the odds, this fight is about as sizable of a mismatch as you will see on a UFC pay-per-view card.
The UFC is trying to build up Rosas as a rising star, which is why matchmakers are booking him against an experienced but low-level fighter.
With all due respect to Qileng, he is simply a far inferior fighter than Rosas and is just being utilized to improve the latter. Before a low blow, Qileng was getting dominated by Daniel Marcos en route to what would have been his second loss over the past three fights.
Meanwhile, Rosas carries a 9-1 professional MMA record with his lone loss coming to the 11-2 Christian Rodriguez.
At just 19, Rosas has demonstrated an intense wrestling pace that is followed by a lethal submission game.
The question to ask with this fight is not "Do we back Rosas?" but rather "How do we back Rosas?"
Rosas vs. Aoriqileng Pick
Oddsmakers are expecting this fight to end inside the distance, given that it is priced as wide as -475 to do so.
Subsequently, Rosas' method-of-victory odds at Betway are as follows:
- KO/TKO (+450)
- Submission (-150)
- Decision (+400)
It makes sense that Rosas by submission is the most likely outcome, given those aforementioned grappling skills. Six of his nine professional wins have come by submission.
Meanwhile, 27% of Qileng's losses have come by submission. I don't trust his mere 58% takedown defense, and once Rosas brings this fight to the mat, it's likely over for him.
The Pick: Raul Rosas Jr. by submission (-150 at BetWay) | Play to -160
